AbbyJr Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 What the hell is wrong with people being cautiously optimistic? Please explain. Do you forget how many meltdowns you have had when it does not work out after you say it is a slam dunk, and it will happen? I feel like you do not remember that. Your nearly narcissistic approach that we should believe you and we should accept you word is just ridiculous!! NO ONE is trying to tell you it will not happen, as it very well could, BUT reading the tea leaves on 10 day out patterns is no freaking slam dunk. If you want to be 100% sure then go for it, but you have been wrong many, many times, as have all of us. So, let those that want to step back in a wait and see mode do so, that is NOT negative - THAT my friend is wisdom based on experience. I am feeling very good about the potential myself!Well said. Couldn't have said it better myself. I fully agree with you. I'm cautiously optimistic and there is nothing wrong with that. Its ridiculous in my opinion that we would be expected to believe one member on this page and hop onto this historic arctic potential bandwagon when its still way in the long range and has yet to have the support of the Euro and EPS, which are said to be some of the most reliable models. I agree, there are positive signs but some people just don't want to risk the utter disappointment of things not working out and thus would rather be cautiously optimistic until we get closer to the event and gain the support of other models such as the Euro and EPS. Nothing wrong with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Good sign for later this month, we seem to have the same turbulent melt downs usually a couple weeks before something drops. This is very true. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Good sign for later this month, we seem to have the same turbulent melt downs usually a couple weeks before something drops.As far as I can tell there is only one meltdown occuring currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I hope snow_wiz is right. It would be nice if everyone can join in the fun. It seems like some are left out every time. We are due for a spinning low that hugs the coast and goes all the way to the CA border. Go ducks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 All I'm seeing ignoring the obvious good signs and harping on one run that isn't quite perfect. In the end we will all be happy and I will be proven right. People that really know me know not to doubt when I'm this sure.Bye Felicia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I really think I'm wasting my time on here, but I will continue to post for the sake of the few who actually think I may know what I'm talking about. I really hate this forum sometimes.I believe in you Snow Wizard. You are one of my all time favorite posters on here. I would be very surprised if we don't get an Arctic Blast this month. We all just have to be patient. Once we can get good solid model agreement inside 10 days, then this place will have more optimism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Models looking pretty good right now, digging the consistency of the GFS. I'm not sold on any kind of arctic outbreak yet but I think seeing some low land snow is more likely than not in the coming 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 This may just be me but I personally prefer to see the Euro show lowland snow within the 240 hour timeframe before I get too hyped. Hell last year it was showing Portland getting crushed up until the point 3 days before when Tim jinxed it all by betting the forum $100k that the low would go north and his kids wouldn't go to school until May only for it to go 200 miles south and smash Eugene while I ended up with a trace for that all-time historic month NOT THAT I'M STILL MAD ABOUT IT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Pretty remarkable and encouraging how much stronger the long range blocking signal is with the GEFS compared to a couple days ago. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 If you thought that the gfs runs couldn’t get any better look at the 18z at 162 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I am pretty confident we will see some cool weather and probably lowland snow this month. I think there is a pretty good chance it gets pretty snowy. Especially for my location and places north of Seattle down to sea level. I am not confident about arctic air. I think Justin may be on the right track in thinking snow at most airport locations, but no true arctic air. And considering January since 1982 that would seem a smart bet. Of course, January 1996, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2012, and 2017 all did have Arctic air (sub-freezing highs) in the lowlands. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 They gave it a 4 out of 5 confidence rating too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 47 degrees and mostly sunny. Nice March aftern-- err, January afternoon!! Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 18z MAY not be as good. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 If you thought that the gfs runs couldn’t get any better look at the 18z at 162 hours. Improvement and lowland snow within 7 days. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 18z GFS Day 6-7 trough considerably colder. We're not too far away from going right into modified arctic air at Day 7 now. 500mb Day 6 past 4 runs 500mb Day 7 past 4 runs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Wow, the weekend of the 11th could be REALLY interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 18z MAY not be as good.Maybe not. We all know that anything beyond Day 6-7 on the GFS Op is not worth taking too concretely or seriously. Onto the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I like the improvements in the short-mid range personally. Not just with the trough digging better, but the 500mb pattern overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 18z GFS Day 6-7 trough considerably colder. We're not too far away from going right into modified arctic air at Day 7 now. 500mb Day 6 past 4 runs1 1 20 18z GFS Day 6 4runs.gif 500mb Day 7 past 4 runs1 1 20 18z GFS Day 7 4runs.gifSolid confirmation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Massive snowstorm for vic and van on this run. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I take that back this is going good places now 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Pretty good signs. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 My god that’s deep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Wow. 510 thickness nearing PDX, 504 near Puget Sound 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 My god that’s deepOof. Cue the dome!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Been looking for trends and consistencies, this is 3 in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Dang 498 thickness Omak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 out of the past 6 GFS Op runs feature very cold air Day 10+ now. I have to wonder if there's anything to this. I want to see timing moved ahead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Tim, If it snows next weekend, when can we expect an over running event that leads to low 40’s and rain? I need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 out of the past 6 GFS Op runs feature very cold air Day 10+ now. I have to wonder if there's anything to this. I want to see timing moved ahead though. Yeah... hard to ignore that consistency. Hard to square that up with the ECMWF and EPS not showing any serious cold air even at day 10. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 50° in the swamp, winds have died down. All the smoke and gunpowder smell from last night is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Tim, If it snows next weekend, when can we expect an over running event that leads to low 40’s and rain? I need to know.And I need to know when will it be dry? Especially on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Tim, If it snows next weekend, when can we expect an over running event that leads to low 40’s and rain? I need to know. If February is any guide... in about 6-7 weeks. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Cold and lowland snow are now in the believable range at day 7. Still cautiously optimistic... looking like an active pattern either way! Not a full on split flow winter after all. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Pretty much this. Jim is well respected, deservedly so, but no one should get a free pass on this kind of behavior. Well said. I was being a di*k. I just get carried away sometimes. I will say this is probably in my top 5 for times I've been all in for greatness though. Probably a fair percentage gut feeling, but also a great alignment of signs / variables in our favor. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 All signs point to a great and snowy January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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