SnarkyGoblin Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 eeek @ Euro Not liking the trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Warmer than 00z looks about same as 12z yesterday. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Warmer so far. Yeah at day 5 the block isn't amplifying as much into AK. Continues to be warmer than GFS, no change there through Saturday. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Battle between models continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 So nice to see this pattern change! Hoping this is only the beginning of some really active fun weather!wet.....then cold, snow......AR......Wind event....back to snow.......cold and so on This fall/winter has been an interesting one. September and October were both pretty interesting with thunderstorms and anomalous early season cold. Then we transitioned to a pathetic split flow pattern from the beginning of November all the way to mid December. Weather has been much more active since the big AR mid December...Rainier and even a couple modest wind events mixed in. Maybe hopefully some snow in a week. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Gfs shows a big snowstorm Friday for BC. Euro says mostly rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The Euro forgot that October was really kold. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS continues to be way more aggressive with the cold air than the EURO. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS continues to be way more aggressive with the cold air than the EURO. Perfect married couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z ECMWF is WAY warmer. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS continues to be way more aggressive with the cold air than the EURO. History pretty much says the Euro will prevail or at least a large move in that direction soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z ECMWF is WAY warmer. Yeah it has 850mb temps like -2C at PDX on Saturday night. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Only KBLI is out so far of those three. Looks quite snowy up there. 80% show over a foot by D16. I'll share KSEA and KPDX when they show up. Pretty impressive eye candy, there. Mean of 12.8", median of 13". It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 850mb temps drop to -39.6C in SW BC on the 12z GFS. What an impressive pattern. Persistent anticyclonic wavebreaking in just the right location with a healthy Indo-Pacific MJO superimposed on a WPAC/W-IO dominates background state. Old old old school. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 History pretty much says the Euro will prevail or at least a large move in that direction soon. They need to fix the GFS, or go back to the old one. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 850mb temps drop to -39.6C in SW BC on the 12z GFS. What an impressive pattern. Persistent anticyclonic wavebreaking in just the right location with a healthy Indo-Pacific MJO superimposed on a WPAC/W-IO dominates background state. Old old old school. Any idea why the GFS and Euro are so different right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Any idea why the GFS and Euro are so different right now? pretty major split in the models. Weird that the GEM also hopped on board with the gfs but the euro hasn't. Not sure what to think. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Then forcing moves to 160E later in January, so that NPAC wavetrain is probably only going to amplify further with time. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 JUNK We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 This trend toward a weakness in the block and energy hanging back over Alaska could still be a big problem. It just shuts off the arctic express. ECMWF might still get there... but delays within day 7 are not a good sign. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 If we weren't so worked up over unrealistic GFS runs this would be an okay Euro showing some real potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The Euro shows a lot of mountain snow early next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1013 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro looks awful for you guys (comparatively) but interestingly it's significantly colder for me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Wow. The Euro is not even close. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The Euro shows a lot of mountain snow early next week! Yeah but it ain't lowland snow. Throw it out! Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 If we weren't so worked up over unrealistic GFS runs this would be an okay Euro showing some real potential. Bunch of maps with 3' of snow and Sub zero temps can get the weenies worked up real fast. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The Euro shows a lot of mountain snow early next week!Yeah, judging by the posts here by the doomers and gloomers I expected it to look A LOT worse! My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm sure it will look great at day 10? Interesting to see what the EPS shows. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just scroll back 4 or 5 runs. The Euro is not stable at all with this pattern. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just scroll back 4 or 5 runs. The Euro is not stable at all with this pattern. none of the models seem to be really. gfs has been the only consistent one it seems but it's just too bullish to be believed. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 It's time.. Attack TIM!!! We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just scroll back 4 or 5 runs. The Euro is not stable at all with this pattern.Yeah... but we are talking about the pattern at 5 days out setting the stage. The ECMWF will lock in at this range. It's not going to keep swinging wildly. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Pretty soon the cold runs will be into Feb. Chasing the Dragon. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Chilly trough for (next) Tuesday... My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Any idea why the GFS and Euro are so different right now?It’s how they handle the Siberian wavetrain/MJO structure and the associated contributions to the AAM budget that affects the displacement of mass, WAFs, etc. The GFS is essentially just faster than the ECMWF in propagating the tropical forcing out of the IO/E-IPWP and handles the AAM budget/wavetrains differently as a result. The ECMWF is more inclined to drag its heels but would eventually “get there”, most likely (though these things can be nonlinear as the AAM budget/seasonality evolves). 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Yeah... but we are talking about the pattern at 5 days out setting the stage. The ECMWF will lock in at this range. It's not going to keep swinging wildly.Starting to feel like it will be a slower process into the cold and that might just be fine still. The overall pattern is there. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 ECMWF starting to look like what the EPS has been showing. Arctic air bottled up in BC and AB for the most part (exception was only day 9 on the 00Z run)... and a chilly pattern for the rest of the West. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 It’s how they handle the Siberian wavetrain/MJO structure and the associated contributions to the AAM budget that affects the displacement of mass, WAFs, etc. The GFS is essentially just faster than the ECMWF in propagating the tropical forcing out of the IO/E-IPWP and handles the AAM budget/wavetrains differently as a result. The ECMWF is more inclined to drag its heels but would eventually “get there”, most likely (though these things can be nonlinear as the AAM budget/seasonality evolves).Pretty much how my Mom described it only she was a bit more detailed. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The GFS (or at least the old GFS) has historically had a bias to over-propagate forcing out of the IPWP domain and into the WHEM. However, the ECMWF can get bogged down over the IPWP (and the Canadian is the worst by far with this respect to said MC barrier effect). But yeah, one could expect a tropically-forced wavetrain evolution such as this one to be rushed by guidance that would be more inclined to do so anyway. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Over 5,000 posts in this thread during the first six days of January in anticipation of the upcoming snowpocalypse and now we are left with the 12z Euro... What a waste of 5,000 posts.Nahh, they have been quite entertaining at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts