Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z EPS snow mean... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 06z GEFS starting to lean towards the EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z Euro Control is SE and hits MO/IL/N IN/S MI pretty good with snow from the secondary wave as it tracks thru S IN into OH... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 06z GFS... 06z NAM...still snowing as the defo band tracks through MO/IL... Wow do we have model agreement already! That's not allowed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wow do we have model agreement already! That's not allowed.Ya, I think the track is getting iron down but all the models vary in terms of how to handle the upper level energy, thermals, precip type. For those of us up north, where the mix precip scenario sets up, will be a challenge trying to pin that down till 12-24 hours before the event. I like the trends in the strength of the secondary wave developing into a healthy storm. The GEFS are showing more and more members advertising something more in line to the Euro/Ukie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Trends in the GEFS ensemble members of the SLP track now starting to show it tracking thru S IN...the HP to the north seems to be growing a little stronger. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 It's getting old with no big strikes (other than rain) here in C,IA. Snowfall total is 8.4" for the season. Most of it occurred in OCT. Do not by a pattern change unless it's a rain and than cold- why should I? It's either rain or cold here and no snow-DMX's takeFriday through Saturday...strong surface high pressure builds intothe Dakotas and Minnesota during this time and looks to advectplenty of dry air into the state. The boundary to the south inMissouri, Kansas and Oklahoma continues to be the focus for anyprecipitation chances Friday afternoon into Saturday and likelyhoarding any significant moisture. Confident to lower pops andQPF (especially west and north) during the aforementioned timeperiod due the dry air entrainment and the bulk of the forcingremaining across the southern and eastern portions of the forecastarea. Precip type appears to be mainly rain/snow across centralto southern Iowa Friday afternoon and evening. There is a briefstint when ice introduction is lost across the far south and thussome FZRA/wintry mix is possible Friday night. Low confidence inthe impact due to the continued trend of lesser chances of anyprecipitation. Light snow accumulations Friday evening overcentral to eastern portions of the forecast area, but trendedlower with QPF and thus snow amounts due to the high pressureshunting the precipitation south of the state. I don't see a turnaround like last year which was a record turnaround for snowfall. Winters here just don't happen like the 00's - and being skeptic of climate change- Iam starting to believe and drink the kool aid. The last time a serious L tracked in MO and gave appreciable snows for C.IA was several years ago. Climate is a changing- having a hard time believing anything else. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 NWS KC mentioning headlines By Friday morning the the surface front will reside in the vicinityof the southern CWA however, initial cold air advection behind thefront will remain weak keeping temperatures above freezing duringthe morning hours. Moisture will continue to stream into the area onthe nose of a persistent LLJ which will overrun the surface frontand continue rain changes across the area. However, by Fridayafternoon a surface low will develop along the front acrossnortheastern Oklahoma and tighten the pressure gradient and enhanceCAA into the area. This will drop temperatures below freezing fromnorthwest to southeast across the forecast area Friday afternoonthrough Friday night. As these temperatures drop below freezing, theaforementioned upper level trough over the western CONUS will moveinto the central Plains. Moisture will continue to stream into thearea on the continued LLJ however, it will with surface temperaturenow below freezing we will looking at frozen precipitation. Modelsoundings show a very pronounced warm nose of 4-5C between 2-8kft.This would support freezing rain. As we go through Friday afternooninto Friday night as the upper level trough approaches it will pusha 850mb front through the and that warm nose will eventually coolwith the entire column dropping below freezing. This would allowtransition to snow with perhaps some occasional sleet mixed in. thistransition will occur from northwest where less freezing rain andmore snow will occur to southeast where more freezing rain isexpected. Snow is then expected to continue into Saturday as theupper level trough moves through. All told ice accumulations of atenth to a quarter of an inch cannot be ruled out and snowaccumulations of 2 to 4 inches may be possible. These definitelywarrant a watch and based on model updates in the next 24 hours onemay need to be issued. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Welp Omaha is out of this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Welp Omaha is out of this one.I am over this Winter already. Ready for Spring! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Driving in/out of Chicago Friday, looks like I will be doing it early that day. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 6z EC a little softer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Yup like Grizz said. We dont get cutters over here anymore. Clippers or nothing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 6z EPS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Ya, I think the track is getting iron down but all the models vary in terms of how to handle the upper level energy, thermals, precip type. For those of us up north, where the mix precip scenario sets up, will be a challenge trying to pin that down till 12-24 hours before the event. I like the trends in the strength of the secondary wave developing into a healthy storm. The GEFS are showing more and more members advertising something more in line to the Euro/Ukie.This reminds me of a set up many years ago where we got lots of rain and Geos just to the north got around a foot of snow. Something tells me this is play out in similar fashion with a very sharp cutoff in the area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Some of the ensemble stuff is still solid for my area, but the operational models are trending in the wrong direction. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Some of the ensemble stuff is still solid for my area, but the operational models are trending in the wrong direction.What I was thinking. Need to give it a few more runs before i start throwing in the towel. Too many good members left. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm all on board the ICON lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 As expected, the NAM continues to gradually slow the southern wave and trend toward the other models. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Yes yes yes!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 NAM at hr 84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Chicago and Detroit may face the threat for a wintry mixture of precipitation beginning Friday night.The storm is expected to track eastward through the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and cold air filtering into the storm will gradually shift precipitation modes from ice to snow across the Midwest.Some areas that may end up encased in ice may then see accumulating snow afterward, adding additional stress to tree limbs and power lines.The storm will pivot and precipitation will transition to snow, burying portions of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan under totals in excess of 6 inches Saturday into Saturday night. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Chicago and Detroit may face the threat for a wintry mixture of precipitation beginning Friday night.The storm is expected to track eastward through the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and cold air filtering into the storm will gradually shift precipitation modes from ice to snow across the Midwest.Some areas that may end up encased in ice may then see accumulating snow afterward, adding additional stress to tree limbs and power lines.The storm will pivot and precipitation will transition to snow, burying portions of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan under totals in excess of 6 inches Saturday into Saturday night.The Euro was showing really nasty amounts of ice for S. Mich. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easterniowa1 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 We must have used up that snow magnet in Waterloo last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 NAM has gone to the two-wave scenario like the other models. This is going to be close for my area. We could get several inches of snow, but this could also, just as easily, sag a bit more southeast and drop very little here. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The Euro was showing really nasty amounts of ice for S. Mich.Yep, I saw that. I hate ice. UGH! Hopefully, S. trends continue today. The strong H.P to our north could suppress this storm south a bit. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12Z ICON 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z NAM hammers KC. 6-12 inches Clinton, you posted the 06z, the 12z was a huge upgrade for KC. Stupid ICON did not follow, has snow off to the east of the city. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 We've lost the ICON now. I have a feeling this is going to be a dud for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Of course, this is going to be a dud for Cedar Rapids. At this point, we won't see any measurable snow until February. Chicago will get more snow than us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The 3K NAM basically doesn't show the storm coming together at all. ONly goes out to hour 60 which is when things should be ramping up, but it's showing only some rain in Missouri, IL and IN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z NAM hammers KC. 6-12 inches Clinton, you posted the 06z, the 12z was a huge upgrade for KC. Stupid ICON did not follow, has snow off to the east of the city. Loving the 12z NAM, but trying not to get too excited about it yet. Gary always doubts the NAM, and I will admit that it seems to have had its problems this year. Looking at the ensemble maps, KC is in, or very near, accumulating snows on most of the maps. So it seems like we have a pretty good chance of seeing enough to cover the ground, which in KC is about all you can ask for with regard to any particular snow event. The trends are good for all of us. The Euro has been advertising about .30 of ice accum down my way, and it has been very steady on snow amounts and track the last several runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The GFS continues to be pretty stable, showing a modest first wave dropping a mix and snow in southeast Iowa, followed by a main wave laying down a decent snow to the southeast of Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 GFS continues to be weak and stretched out. Very progressive. Huge rain totals, but not much snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm writting this one off. It's just not going to happen for Cedar Rapids. I would love it if we could be on the warm side of the storm with those really impressive rainfall totals, but oh well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I still expect to see some adjustments but for Chicago and nearby, this will be a nail biter. While you're eating nails, Euro wants to feed me flurries . Best of luck to ya over there my friend. I think trends will be your friend by game time. Getting me back in the thick of SN instead of RN/Ice dominating will take a bit more lifting by the models. Let's see. I may not have to drive too far to see a legit snowstorm tho, that'd be a nice upside. Dec 28, 2015 Sleet-n-snowstorm was like that. Full-on sleeter for the 94 corridor and just 2 counties north they had a nice 4-6" snow event. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Until the Euro caves to the GFS I'm not believing the GFS. outside of it's one coup this year, it has mostly been awful. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I see you Iowa Peeps! You got the same model-flopping blues I had a case of yesterday. No easing that pain either, but at least you guys got last winter fwiw. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Looks like I'm in the sweet spot for Freezing rain on all the models. Hopefully the storm overcomes the warmer air aloft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Woah, it's always crazy to see high snow totals on a map that doesn't say "GFS" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.