1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Sciascia]

LOT with a new graphic for ORD. Seems to be hinting at the potential for 6 inches to fall in a 4 hour period, with snow continuing for a few hours after that.

[Iowawx]

Everything that could go wrong, did.  My snow total is 1" and it appears that's going to be it.  Even the consistently-nw HRRR has given up.

 

I know this was a complicated forecast, but the locals and NWS did a lousy job.  Some of the totals they were forecasting were way too high, and they kept the high totals even when it was pretty obvious the storm wasn't playing out favorably.

KGAN-TV had 5-8 inches in their forecast! I don't think they lowered it all night either. I'm sure TS would have lowered the totals before the 10pm newscast if he was still there.

[Niko]

Early morning trends are our friend. Multiple models show us getting dry slotted and spared the icing. Precip is either all snow on the backside, or non-existent. Still details to be ironed out but I feel we'll dodge any icing greater than a glaze.

I am forecasted to receive .025"+ of ice. Doesn't sound a lot, but for ice standards, that is disruptive.

[Niko]

Hit 32°. Waiting on the precip to begin now. Last of the raindrops about to freeze up on my trees now and should see a bit of freezing drizzle while (if) the precip fills back in. Projected at 1" of snow, as far as I know.

current.TAIR.grad (8).png

Good luck down there!

[Hawkeye]

KGAN-TV had 5-8 inches in their forecast! I don't think they lowered it all night either. I'm sure TS would have lowered the totals before the 10pm newscast if he was still there.

 

It wasn't just KGAN.  Even usually-conservative Mark Schnackenburg kept 6-9" for the entire central/southeast part of the area.  KCRG was best, never forecasting more than 3-6" for anyone, but they also kept 3-6" last evening.  3-6 is understandable, though, because wave 2 could still have dropped at least a few inches over southeast Iowa and even a couple in CR.

[Tom]

LOT with a new graphic for ORD. Seems to be hinting at the potential for 6 inches to fall in a 4 hour period, with snow continuing for a few hours after that.

Are you seeing snow flying?  It looks like most of Cook/Lake and into DuPage are seeing light bands coming down the lake.  Perfect NNE wind trajectory.

[jaster220]

LOT with a new graphic for ORD. Seems to be hinting at the potential for 6 inches to fall in a 4 hour period, with snow continuing for a few hours after that.

 

12z NAM3k absolutely rocks Chicago this evening!

 

 

(wish it was showing the same over my way)

[OKwx2k4]

Congrats to those recieving the snowy weather today. I'm sitting under a varying sleet and freezing rain band that should pass within the hour. Was a fun storm to get hopes up a little for.

[St Paul Storm]

Are you seeing snow flying?  It looks like most of Cook/Lake and into DuPage are seeing light bands coming down the lake.  Perfect NNE wind trajectory.

A buddy of mine in Naperville says some flakes are flying. Not many yet, but it’s starting.

[St Paul Storm]

First wave was supposed to be 2-4 I believe

Second wave we were forecasted for 4-7 but models keep trending SE with it

Bummer. It’s storms like this that make me hate his hobby sometimes. You and I are looking good for multiple snow events this coming week. One every other day almost.

[FV-Mike]

A buddy of mine in Naperville says some flakes are flying. Not many yet, but it’s starting.

Flakes flying here

[Clinton]

Finally flipped over to snow, nice sized flakes.

[Sciascia]

Are you seeing snow flying? It looks like most of Cook/Lake and into DuPage are seeing light bands coming down the lake. Perfect NNE wind trajectory.

I’m in Elmwood Park today, and it’s very lightly snowing. Tiny flakes. But they’re being whipped in the wind.

[Mi_Matthew]

The cold air has legs, almost all of SEMI in the 30s. Based on temps already and midmorning AFD from DTX I would be very surprised if sleet/snow doesn't end up dominating over FZRA. I hope I'm right.

 

Edit: That's for SEMI in general, I still expect no more than a glaze of ice & maybe an inch of backside slop in my backyard.

[Tom]

Lake Michigan looks like the Bearing Sea today...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1216027432437866497

[james1976]

Sun is out here. My storm total looks to be a whopping .2"

[Madtown]

Sun is out here. My storm total looks to be a whopping .2"

Worst storm ever!

[SE Wisconsin]

Lake Michigan looks like the Bearing Sea today...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1216027432437866497

Video states it's Lake Shore Drive.  I think it looks more like the bike path instead of Lake Shore Drive.  Still, very impressive!

[hlcater]

Lowering my score to an F.

[OKwx2k4]

Fine, powdered snow falling right now. Bulk of the storm is over. Cold winter day out today for sure.

 

Good to remember it's January again.

[Hawkeye]

Lake Michigan looks like the Bearing Sea today...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1216027432437866497

 

Where are the crab boats?

[Niko]

34F w hvy rain.  A lot of wind and flooding out there. Ice is not that far off.

[Tom]

Video states it's Lake Shore Drive.  I think it looks more like the bike path instead of Lake Shore Drive.  Still, very impressive!

Ya, the guy def made a mistake right there...bike path is under water and erosion is wrecking havoc all along the lake shore.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR now barely even gets snow into Iowa from wave 2.  The NAM and HRRR totally butchered wave 2.

[Iowawx]

The HRRR now barely even gets snow into Iowa from wave 2.  The NAM and HRRR totally butchered wave 2.... just horrible.

It looks like there is snow developing off to the west of CR. Does that look like a hopeful sign for us?

[Hawkeye]

It looks like there is snow developing off to the west of CR. Does that look like a hopeful sign for us?

 

The HRRR has a few spots of very light precip popping up, but the main energy and moisture shift east into Illinois/Indiana.

[Minny_Weather]

Hell if this thing moves slowly enough and it continues its SE trend, I may be in play for some flakes.

 

These sharp temp drops are what I missed about Nebraska. Went to Panera here in Holland a bit ago and from the time I left home to the time I got back (drive thru), the temp dropped 15 degrees. 39.4*F.

[BMT]

I just want to see some snow flying today. Hopefully this stuff west of us can deliver

[hlcater]

I’m thinking is likely flurries/virga.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

 

[westMJim]

I don’t know if I should use the word “hype” but that sure comes to mind with today’s forecast. And I am not talking about the posters on this or any other blogs I am talking about the NWS. I know that they must error in the name of safety and all but still? I think we ALL pay too much attention to the computer models. Too much is put into trying to have the models do much of the forecasting. I was concerned yesterday when there was talk of a 15 to 30-mile window of where the heaviest ice would be. Now that happens many times but to forecast that is kind of tricky. So bottom line it looks like we have been 2020 1^st Winter Storm Warming for a night in the upper 40’s with heavy rain and now what looks to be maybe 2 to 3” of snow and sleet. Like I say this is not finger pointing at any one but I think the NWS takes most of the blame along with the weather models that many of us follow. At this time it is 32 with a light mist falling.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro...

 

Boy, the wave 2 defo zone snow sure turded out, until farther into the lakes region.

[Stacsh]

Mostly sleet and frz drizzle here. Roads are fine Grand Rapids has dodged a bullet in terms of ice. No flakes yet.

[Tom]

Boy, the wave 2 defo zone snow sure turded out, until farther into the lakes region.

Certainly is showing signs of weakening until later in the period.

[jaster220]

Mostly sleet and frz drizzle here. Roads are fine Grand Rapids has dodged a bullet in terms of ice. No flakes yet.

 

Y'all had plenty of that last winter iirc. Besides, ice storms are a harder sell when pre-storm temps are so HOT (can't even say warm) 

[westMJim]

Mostly sleet and frz drizzle here. Roads are fine Grand Rapids has dodged a bullet in terms of ice. No flakes yet.

Yes there was a lot of heavy rain falling with temperatures in the mid to upper 40's and it looks like we will have a WSW for maybe 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet. Glad we did not get the ice but have to say not a good forecast by the NWS I know they have to error on the side of safety and all but just not the best call IMO There will come a time when we will get a very dangerous storm and many people will not pay attention to the warmings.

[jaster220]

Certainly is showing signs of weakening until later in the period.

 

From earlier this morning so take with grain of salt:

 

Assuming things don't fall apart, which is possible, there could be a 3-5/4-6 hour period of legit winter conditions with mod-heavy snow and blowing snow centered on the evening. Wouldn't be surprised to have near blizzard conditions in open areas.

 

Also spoke about 0z Ukie looking awesome for NEIL and possibly WMI. Surprised you haven't posted or shown that one?? 

[SE Wisconsin]

I'm a rank amateur when it comes to the weather, but based on what I'm seeing on radar it seems this second wave is really struggling to pull itself together.  Looks like some pretty decent snow down in southern Missouri, but it looks like that moisture will likely be shunted off to the south and east of the areas under a WSW.  Unless the lake snows really fire up, it may be only a couple of inches, at best, IMBY.  Sure hope I'm wrong!

[jaster220]

Yes there was a lot of heavy rain falling with temperatures in the mid to upper 40's and it looks like we will have a WSW for maybe 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet. Glad we did not get the ice but have to say not a good forecast by the NWS I know they have to error on the side of safety and all but just not the best call IMO There will come a time when we will get a very dangerous storm and many people will not pay attention to the warmings.

 

Can blame the (computer) guidance for all this. They botched the 2-wave scenario big time! Temps have been hard-pressed to conform to winter "norms" and this whole deal has the feel of a great November storm like we've seen around here in a bygone era. Those RN to Snow-and-wind events were quite common. But they weren't described as a "Major Winter Storm" as this has been billed to be. As a matter of fact, NMI will be doing well to score their run of the mill quick hitting 6-10" storm. 

[jaster220]

I'm a rank amateur when it comes to the weather, but based on what I'm seeing on radar it seems this second wave is really struggling to pull itself together.  Looks like some pretty decent snow down in southern Missouri, but it looks like that moisture will likely be shunted off to the south and east of the areas under a WSW.  Unless the lake snows really fire up, it may be only a couple of inches, at best, IMBY.  Sure hope I'm wrong!

 

Yeah, was about to comment on how many huge gaps there are on radar - everywhere. Sadly, it appears the more Nino-like outcome of the past 5-6 weeks continues to be the over-all backdrop.  Looking at how green the grass is outside the north facing window, if I were to gage the likelihood that it somehow changes drastically, it's not looking promising. I know that's a very old school observation and goes against current models so take it as a fwiw statement.