Sciascia Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 LOT with a new graphic for ORD. Seems to be hinting at the potential for 6 inches to fall in a 4 hour period, with snow continuing for a few hours after that. 6 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Everything that could go wrong, did. My snow total is 1" and it appears that's going to be it. Even the consistently-nw HRRR has given up. I know this was a complicated forecast, but the locals and NWS did a lousy job. Some of the totals they were forecasting were way too high, and they kept the high totals even when it was pretty obvious the storm wasn't playing out favorably.KGAN-TV had 5-8 inches in their forecast! I don't think they lowered it all night either. I'm sure TS would have lowered the totals before the 10pm newscast if he was still there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Early morning trends are our friend. Multiple models show us getting dry slotted and spared the icing. Precip is either all snow on the backside, or non-existent. Still details to be ironed out but I feel we'll dodge any icing greater than a glaze.I am forecasted to receive .025"+ of ice. Doesn't sound a lot, but for ice standards, that is disruptive. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Hit 32°. Waiting on the precip to begin now. Last of the raindrops about to freeze up on my trees now and should see a bit of freezing drizzle while (if) the precip fills back in. Projected at 1" of snow, as far as I know.current.TAIR.grad (8).pngGood luck down there! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 KGAN-TV had 5-8 inches in their forecast! I don't think they lowered it all night either. I'm sure TS would have lowered the totals before the 10pm newscast if he was still there. It wasn't just KGAN. Even usually-conservative Mark Schnackenburg kept 6-9" for the entire central/southeast part of the area. KCRG was best, never forecasting more than 3-6" for anyone, but they also kept 3-6" last evening. 3-6 is understandable, though, because wave 2 could still have dropped at least a few inches over southeast Iowa and even a couple in CR. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 LOT with a new graphic for ORD. Seems to be hinting at the potential for 6 inches to fall in a 4 hour period, with snow continuing for a few hours after that.Are you seeing snow flying? It looks like most of Cook/Lake and into DuPage are seeing light bands coming down the lake. Perfect NNE wind trajectory. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 LOT with a new graphic for ORD. Seems to be hinting at the potential for 6 inches to fall in a 4 hour period, with snow continuing for a few hours after that. 12z NAM3k absolutely rocks Chicago this evening! (wish it was showing the same over my way) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Congrats to those recieving the snowy weather today. I'm sitting under a varying sleet and freezing rain band that should pass within the hour. Was a fun storm to get hopes up a little for. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Are you seeing snow flying? It looks like most of Cook/Lake and into DuPage are seeing light bands coming down the lake. Perfect NNE wind trajectory.A buddy of mine in Naperville says some flakes are flying. Not many yet, but it’s starting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 First wave was supposed to be 2-4 I believe Second wave we were forecasted for 4-7 but models keep trending SE with itBummer. It’s storms like this that make me hate his hobby sometimes. You and I are looking good for multiple snow events this coming week. One every other day almost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 A buddy of mine in Naperville says some flakes are flying. Not many yet, but it’s starting.Flakes flying here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Finally flipped over to snow, nice sized flakes. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Are you seeing snow flying? It looks like most of Cook/Lake and into DuPage are seeing light bands coming down the lake. Perfect NNE wind trajectory.I’m in Elmwood Park today, and it’s very lightly snowing. Tiny flakes. But they’re being whipped in the wind. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 The cold air has legs, almost all of SEMI in the 30s. Based on temps already and midmorning AFD from DTX I would be very surprised if sleet/snow doesn't end up dominating over FZRA. I hope I'm right. Edit: That's for SEMI in general, I still expect no more than a glaze of ice & maybe an inch of backside slop in my backyard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lake Michigan looks like the Bearing Sea today... https://twitter.com/i/status/1216027432437866497 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sun is out here. My storm total looks to be a whopping .2" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sun is out here. My storm total looks to be a whopping .2"Worst storm ever! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lake Michigan looks like the Bearing Sea today... https://twitter.com/i/status/1216027432437866497Video states it's Lake Shore Drive. I think it looks more like the bike path instead of Lake Shore Drive. Still, very impressive! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lowering my score to an F. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Fine, powdered snow falling right now. Bulk of the storm is over. Cold winter day out today for sure. Good to remember it's January again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lake Michigan looks like the Bearing Sea today... https://twitter.com/i/status/1216027432437866497 Where are the crab boats? 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 34F w hvy rain. A lot of wind and flooding out there. Ice is not that far off. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Video states it's Lake Shore Drive. I think it looks more like the bike path instead of Lake Shore Drive. Still, very impressive!Ya, the guy def made a mistake right there...bike path is under water and erosion is wrecking havoc all along the lake shore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 The HRRR now barely even gets snow into Iowa from wave 2. The NAM and HRRR totally butchered wave 2. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 The HRRR now barely even gets snow into Iowa from wave 2. The NAM and HRRR totally butchered wave 2.... just horrible.It looks like there is snow developing off to the west of CR. Does that look like a hopeful sign for us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 It looks like there is snow developing off to the west of CR. Does that look like a hopeful sign for us? The HRRR has a few spots of very light precip popping up, but the main energy and moisture shift east into Illinois/Indiana. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Hell if this thing moves slowly enough and it continues its SE trend, I may be in play for some flakes. These sharp temp drops are what I missed about Nebraska. Went to Panera here in Holland a bit ago and from the time I left home to the time I got back (drive thru), the temp dropped 15 degrees. 39.4*F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I just want to see some snow flying today. Hopefully this stuff west of us can deliver 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I’m thinking is likely flurries/virga. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 12z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I don’t know if I should use the word “hype” but that sure comes to mind with today’s forecast. And I am not talking about the posters on this or any other blogs I am talking about the NWS. I know that they must error in the name of safety and all but still? I think we ALL pay too much attention to the computer models. Too much is put into trying to have the models do much of the forecasting. I was concerned yesterday when there was talk of a 15 to 30-mile window of where the heaviest ice would be. Now that happens many times but to forecast that is kind of tricky. So bottom line it looks like we have been 2020 1st Winter Storm Warming for a night in the upper 40’s with heavy rain and now what looks to be maybe 2 to 3” of snow and sleet. Like I say this is not finger pointing at any one but I think the NWS takes most of the blame along with the weather models that many of us follow. At this time it is 32 with a light mist falling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 12z Euro... Boy, the wave 2 defo zone snow sure turded out, until farther into the lakes region. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Mostly sleet and frz drizzle here. Roads are fine Grand Rapids has dodged a bullet in terms of ice. No flakes yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Boy, the wave 2 defo zone snow sure turded out, until farther into the lakes region.Certainly is showing signs of weakening until later in the period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Mostly sleet and frz drizzle here. Roads are fine Grand Rapids has dodged a bullet in terms of ice. No flakes yet. Y'all had plenty of that last winter iirc. Besides, ice storms are a harder sell when pre-storm temps are so HOT (can't even say warm) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Mostly sleet and frz drizzle here. Roads are fine Grand Rapids has dodged a bullet in terms of ice. No flakes yet.Yes there was a lot of heavy rain falling with temperatures in the mid to upper 40's and it looks like we will have a WSW for maybe 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet. Glad we did not get the ice but have to say not a good forecast by the NWS I know they have to error on the side of safety and all but just not the best call IMO There will come a time when we will get a very dangerous storm and many people will not pay attention to the warmings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Certainly is showing signs of weakening until later in the period. From earlier this morning so take with grain of salt: Assuming things don't fall apart, which is possible, there could be a 3-5/4-6 hour period of legit winter conditions with mod-heavy snow and blowing snow centered on the evening. Wouldn't be surprised to have near blizzard conditions in open areas. Also spoke about 0z Ukie looking awesome for NEIL and possibly WMI. Surprised you haven't posted or shown that one?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I'm a rank amateur when it comes to the weather, but based on what I'm seeing on radar it seems this second wave is really struggling to pull itself together. Looks like some pretty decent snow down in southern Missouri, but it looks like that moisture will likely be shunted off to the south and east of the areas under a WSW. Unless the lake snows really fire up, it may be only a couple of inches, at best, IMBY. Sure hope I'm wrong! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Yes there was a lot of heavy rain falling with temperatures in the mid to upper 40's and it looks like we will have a WSW for maybe 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet. Glad we did not get the ice but have to say not a good forecast by the NWS I know they have to error on the side of safety and all but just not the best call IMO There will come a time when we will get a very dangerous storm and many people will not pay attention to the warmings. Can blame the (computer) guidance for all this. They botched the 2-wave scenario big time! Temps have been hard-pressed to conform to winter "norms" and this whole deal has the feel of a great November storm like we've seen around here in a bygone era. Those RN to Snow-and-wind events were quite common. But they weren't described as a "Major Winter Storm" as this has been billed to be. As a matter of fact, NMI will be doing well to score their run of the mill quick hitting 6-10" storm. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I'm a rank amateur when it comes to the weather, but based on what I'm seeing on radar it seems this second wave is really struggling to pull itself together. Looks like some pretty decent snow down in southern Missouri, but it looks like that moisture will likely be shunted off to the south and east of the areas under a WSW. Unless the lake snows really fire up, it may be only a couple of inches, at best, IMBY. Sure hope I'm wrong! Yeah, was about to comment on how many huge gaps there are on radar - everywhere. Sadly, it appears the more Nino-like outcome of the past 5-6 weeks continues to be the over-all backdrop. Looking at how green the grass is outside the north facing window, if I were to gage the likelihood that it somehow changes drastically, it's not looking promising. I know that's a very old school observation and goes against current models so take it as a fwiw statement. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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