Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[wxmet]

Looking good.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z EPS stopped running at day 14.75 for some reason... so here is the 9.75 - 14.75 day mean.

 

 

 

Might not look great... but I will mention that both of those trough anomaly centers are slowly shifting west towards the end of the run which is actually a sign of retrogression and could lead to something later.

Hell yeah! Big cold pool potential or even better! D****T, TIM!

[Cloud]

Where the hell is Hongcouver?

Hongcouver is nickname given to Vancouver due to large population if Chinese/HongKong people in the area.

 

It isn’t wrong though. I’m Asian (not chinese) so I know since I visit the area 2-3 times a year for fun.

[Perturbed Member]

Hell yeah! 1.33km Hi Res shows its cold enough to snow after 7 PM Monday!

 

Yeah it looks pretty interesting. Here was the 12z for comparison. The low has shifted further north now to nail PDX instead. Hopefully the WRF is seeing something the others aren't since it is painting pretty cool temps fairly quickly.

 

[kokaneekidz]

Hongcouver is nickname given to Vancouver due to large population if Chinese/HongKong people in the area.

 

It isn’t wrong though. I’m Asian (not chinese) so I know since I visit the area 2-3 times a year for fun.

You nailed it. I used to live in Hong Kong and YVR has the second best dimsum in the world after HK>

[Deweydog]

The 18z to end all 18z’s in less than 13.5 hours...

[Cloud]

You nailed it. I used to live in Hong Kong and YVR has the second best dimsum in the world after HK>

Yup. The Dimsum there is awesome and the Richmond Night Market over the summer aint too shabby either.

[kokaneekidz]

Bummer I don't live in Carnation anymore. I'd be a little bit closer.

 

The Straight of Georgia effect is most transparent in this illustration. Crystal Clear.

[wxmet]

Slight shift south with the PGCZ axis closer to the Seattle metro on the NAM 12km.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

Generally add 3 degrees to account for ECMWF cool bias.

 

 

Even if its too cold by 3 degrees... this looking like a very cold period for Bellingham.    There is going to be a distinct line to the north where this becomes a true arctic event. 

 

[bainbridgekid]

FWIW, the 00z European Ensemble mean brings Thursday's low in at the mouth of the Columbia at ~984mb.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to make a prediction for tomorrow night / Monday morning for the East Puget Sound Lowlands.

 

North part - 3 to 6 inches of snow mostly falling before 2am.

 

South part - 1 to 3 inches mostly falling 2am to 8am.

 

All areas below freezing by sunrise.

 

I will call somewhere around I-90 the line.

[GHweatherChris]

FWIW, the 00z European Ensemble mean brings Thursday's low in at the mouth of the Columbia.

That would be fun!

[TT-SEA]

Here is Portland...

 

[GHweatherChris]

Possible 2-3 inches of snow on the ground here by Monday morning, our daughter is tracking potential school delays and closures.

[bainbridgekid]

Here is Portland...

 

Hate to be that guy, but got Everett?

[Cloud]

FWIW, the 00z European Ensemble mean brings Thursday's low in at the mouth of the Columbia at ~984mb.

I’d imagine this track would provide a lot of snow for the region. It might warm PDX up quicker though.

[kokaneekidz]

Slight shift south with the PGCZ axis closer to the Seattle metro on the NAM 12km.

I love it the HYBRID dual convergence zones. Georgia-Puget (Salish Seas) Colnvergenxe Zones. Awesome

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm going to make a prediction for tomorrow night / Monday morning for the East Puget Sound Lowlands.

 

North part - 3 to 6 inches of snow mostly falling before 2am.

 

South part - 1 to 3 inches mostly falling 2am to 8am.

 

All areas below freezing by sunrise.

 

I will call somewhere around I-90 the line.

I’m the south part will take 1 to 3?

[TT-SEA]

I'm going to make a prediction for tomorrow night / Monday morning for the East Puget Sound Lowlands.

 

North part - 3 to 6 inches of snow mostly falling before 2am.

 

South part - 1 to 3 inches mostly falling 2am to 8am.

 

All areas below freezing by sunrise.

 

I will call somewhere around I-90 the line.

 

 

Could be right... I tend to go with the ECMWF for this stuff but the WRF has me wondering if there is some truth to what its showing.

 

I know many places will get snow.   And everyone who posts their snow totals or pics will say I specifically said it wouldn't happen.    But I never said that.  

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the ECMWF is not handling the intrusion of Fraser River air into the Seattle very well at all.  It continues to show Bellingham very cold on Monday evening and Seattle only near freezing with a perfect northerly surface pressure gradient  and brisk north winds blowing straight down Puget Sound.  Past experience tells me the difference between Bellingham and Seattle in a case like that will not be as great as the ECMWF shows.  I could easily see low to mid 20s at SEA by 9pm Monday evening.

 

We will need to watch how cold the Fraser outflow is very carefully.  That is our best shot to still see some really impressive cold temps.

[bainbridgekid]

I’m the south part will take 1 to 3?

Bothell is definitely on the North side of the EPSL.

 

I like your chances to get 2-4" tomorrow night depending on your elevation and the exact CZ location.

[GHweatherChris]

Could be right... I tend to go with the ECMWF for this stuff but the WRF has me wondering if there is some truth to what its showing.

 

I know many places will get snow. And everyone who posts their snow totals or pics will say I specifically said it won't happen. But I never said that.

You do have some issues.

[MikeInEverett]

I’m the south part will take 1 to 3?

Unfortunately you aren’t in the East Puget Sound Lowlands and you aren’t in the south part either. Bothell should be in the 1-4” range though.

[TT-SEA]

Hate to be that guy, but got Everett?

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately you aren’t in the East Puget Sound Lowlands and you aren’t in the south part either. Bothell should be in the 1-4” range though.

 

Bothell could be a big winner actually.   Maybe 6+ inches there... particularly north of 405.

[kokaneekidz]

Bothell could be a big winner actually.   Maybe 6+ inches there... particularly north of 405.

Exactly, could be where the boundary sets up shop for hours on end. In a ESE trajectory from Freeland , WA all the way to Stevens Pass.

[ShawniganLake]

Has your perspective on Victoria’s chances for tomorrow night changed? I’m expecting 2-4 cm but I’m hoping there’s a chance for 10-15 cm

Those numbers seem reasonable. 1-2” in outflow flurries. 4”-6” if we can spin up some low pressure off Vancouver Island

[snow_wizard]

Could be right... I tend to go with the ECMWF for this stuff but the WRF has me wondering if there is some truth to what its showing.

 

I know many places will get snow.   And everyone who posts their snow totals or pics will say I specifically said it wouldn't happen.    But I never said that.  

 

In actuality a WRF / ECMWF blend would be awesome for many of us in the Seattle area.  The WRF is obviously way too fast.  The million dollar question is whether the ECMWF is too slow at advancing the zone.

[MikeInEverett]

Bothell could be a big winner actually. Maybe 6+ inches there... particularly north of 405.

Yeah, precip looks really heavy up here when the CZ first forms. Being cautious though cause I’ve been burned by these setups a few times in recent years.

[Requiem]

Wonder if I could see flurries on Monday...we’ll see.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM PV Lobe further west now over East central BC, West central AB. Hmmm!

 

[snow_wizard]

Williams Lake is down to zero in a mixed atmosphere.  The cold is advancing nicely.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Even if its too cold by 3 degrees... this looking like a very cold period for Bellingham.    There is going to be a distinct line to the north where this becomes a true arctic event. 

 

 

Just hoping we get a decent amount of snow to go with that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS 1.33km Hi Res

Snowfall Totals through 4 PM Tuesday

 

3-5" PDX metro. NICE! Then the bigger storm Wednesday-Thursday!

 

[Meatyorologist]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the ECMWF is not handling the intrusion of Fraser River air into the Seattle very well at all.  It continues to show Bellingham very cold on Monday evening and Seattle only near freezing with a perfect northerly surface pressure gradient  and brisk north winds blowing straight down Puget Sound.  Past experience tells me the difference between Bellingham and Seattle in a case like that will not be as great as the ECMWF shows.  I could easily see low to mid 20s at SEA by 9pm Monday evening.

 

We will need to watch how cold the Fraser outflow is very carefully.  That is our best shot to still see some really impressive cold temps.

Either the the pressure gradients are too strong, or the Euro is too warm. I can't say which for certain. Experience tells me that the Arctic Front will be delayed a few hours, but most models end up getting the gradients set up right. However, with oceanic influence we may at least be closer to 32F than on the GFS.

[Meatyorologist]

6z NAM PV Lobe further west now over East central BC, West central AB. Hmmm!

 

Yo where do you get that map from? The NAM from what I'm seeing doesn't have a wide view like that...

[Gradient Keeper]

Yo where do you get that map from? The NAM from what I'm seeing doesn't have a wide view like that...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020011206&fh=0

 

[El_Nina]

Heavy snow falling in the Blue mountains tonight over on the east side. Deep tire tracks

[Meatyorologist]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020011206&fh=0

 

Today I learned I have some kind of mental condition that prevented me from noticing the 32km resolution for two goddamn years