Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 What's your wind looking like? You could be pushing ice storm criteria.We are suppose to have gust up to 35mph. I expect an ice storm warning soon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 DVN just issued Winter Storm Warnings for a large area including Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Here's the full 18z NAM: 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 DVN just issued Winter Storm Warnings for a large area including Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Now saying 3-6" for us instead of 2-4" as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CSTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snowaccumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of onetenth to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mphproducing near whiteout conditions at times.* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Iowaand northwest Illinois.* WHEN...From noon Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 As much spread the wealth as we’ve had it a LONG time. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 DMX a bit concerned about power line issues with the wet snow and high wind plus any icing.Where are you seeing that? I don’t disagree it could be an issue. I just don’t see where they called that out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Dang, the 18Z NAM spits out almost 10" in mby. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 For Northern IL folks, I don't see too much snow from this system and once the rain comes most that has fallen will be washed away. WAA most always is under modeled and the way this winter has gone I see it winning out again. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect much.Bingo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Where are you seeing that? I don’t disagree it could be an issue. I just don’t see where they called that out?Am becoming increasingly concerned with hazardous impact potentialfor late Friday/early Saturday as potent cold air gradient +strong winds punches southeastward across Iowa. The impacts couldbe like that of a snow- squall warning... Temperatures may fallaround 20 degrees in less than 3 hours, accompanied by theleading surge of 40 kt wind gusts. This may ultimately lead torapid freezing on surfaces... especially untreated surfaces... andpotentially very hazardous travel through Saturday morning. Ifsnow were to concurrently fall, this would reduce visibility ontop of the above impacts. Also, wanted to increase mention of potential issues to power linesand tree branches... If this were a "stand-alone" event with justone-tenth of an inch, the concurrent strong winds would notablyamplify impacts. With snow ahead of this system, central to southernIowa may have higher-impact potential if the snow falls as morewet/heavy snow. Increasing confidence in high winds for Saturday. Cannot completelyrule out High Wind Warning criteria being neared across northernIowa. The strong northwesterly winds alone would create hazardoustravel conditions... but adding in the potential for icing/blowingsnow may amplify hazardous travel through Saturday afternoon andevening. Will monitor this closely over the next few forecastupdates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 3K NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Models starting to back off on the weenie totals, finally. Looks like more spread the wealth though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 3K NAM Looks like the TWC map from yesterday! Still think anyone outside of msp area is gonna have a battle to get to 8" minus lake effect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'm in a WWA for up to 8" lol. Plus more LES on Sat and Sunday. Good call GRR..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Advisories and warnings posted now seem to mostly align with the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Finally a daytime event. That's awesome 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'm in a WWA for up to 8" lol. Plus more LES on Sat and Sunday. Good call GRR.....That don't surprise me at all after last weekends "Winter Storm Not!" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Gonna take the under on the NAMs 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Gonna take the under on the NAMsDon't be a negative nelly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Don't be a negative nelly. 6-8” tho? From this? Nahhhhh. I bet we see 4”, and I’ll consider myself lucky to see 5”. I think the band is too progressive to really cash in on what will likely be some intense (1”+/hr) rates in the WAA wing. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 6-8” tho? From this? Nahhhhh. I bet we see 4”, and I’ll consider myself lucky to see 5”. I think the band is too progressive to really cash in on what will likely be some intense (1”+/hr) rates in the WAA wing. I was just kidding. I think we all know not to expect what the NAM is showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 20z rap lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Am becoming increasingly concerned with hazardous impact potentialfor late Friday/early Saturday as potent cold air gradient +strong winds punches southeastward across Iowa. The impacts couldbe like that of a snow- squall warning... Temperatures may fallaround 20 degrees in less than 3 hours, accompanied by theleading surge of 40 kt wind gusts. This may ultimately lead torapid freezing on surfaces... especially untreated surfaces... andpotentially very hazardous travel through Saturday morning. Ifsnow were to concurrently fall, this would reduce visibility ontop of the above impacts. Also, wanted to increase mention of potential issues to power linesand tree branches... If this were a "stand-alone" event with justone-tenth of an inch, the concurrent strong winds would notablyamplify impacts. With snow ahead of this system, central to southernIowa may have higher-impact potential if the snow falls as morewet/heavy snow. Increasing confidence in high winds for Saturday. Cannot completelyrule out High Wind Warning criteria being neared across northernIowa. The strong northwesterly winds alone would create hazardoustravel conditions... but adding in the potential for icing/blowingsnow may amplify hazardous travel through Saturday afternoon andevening. Will monitor this closely over the next few forecastupdates. sorry- I promise I’m not trying to be annoying! So where is that from? It’s not the AFD, which I usually read. I’m just trying to figure this all out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Am becoming increasingly concerned with hazardous impact potentialfor late Friday/early Saturday as potent cold air gradient +strong winds punches southeastward across Iowa. The impacts couldbe like that of a snow- squall warning... Temperatures may fallaround 20 degrees in less than 3 hours, accompanied by theleading surge of 40 kt wind gusts. This may ultimately lead torapid freezing on surfaces... especially untreated surfaces... andpotentially very hazardous travel through Saturday morning. Ifsnow were to concurrently fall, this would reduce visibility ontop of the above impacts. Also, wanted to increase mention of potential issues to power linesand tree branches... If this were a "stand-alone" event with justone-tenth of an inch, the concurrent strong winds would notablyamplify impacts. With snow ahead of this system, central to southernIowa may have higher-impact potential if the snow falls as morewet/heavy snow. Increasing confidence in high winds for Saturday. Cannot completelyrule out High Wind Warning criteria being neared across northernIowa. The strong northwesterly winds alone would create hazardoustravel conditions... but adding in the potential for icing/blowingsnow may amplify hazardous travel through Saturday afternoon andevening. Will monitor this closely over the next few forecastupdates. sorry- I promise I’m not trying to be annoying! So where is that from? It’s not the AFD, which I usually read. I’m just trying to figure this all out! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DMX&issuedby=DMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Winds up to 45mph... 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 20z rap lol this will be up on Snowday in 10 minutes 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DMX&issuedby=DMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1 thank you! In my defense it’s not in the new one they issued this afternoon- which is where I looked! I appreciate you linking that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Oax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 For Northern IL folks, I don't see too much snow from this system and once the rain comes most that has fallen will be washed away. WAA most always is under modeled and the way this winter has gone I see it winning out again. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect much.Looking at the latest models especially the RGEM I might have spoken too soon as they are getting colder/snowy but we still have 24hrs so not getting hopes up just yet. I hope I end up being wrong on my above post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 GFS with almost 1" qpf for Iowa City, but only 4" of snow. Yuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z GFS freezing rain: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 The 18z HRRR surges mix way up into Minnesota. Last storm, the HRRR was one of the farthest south with the snow/mix line. I'm still going with 3-4 inches in Cedar Rapids. I don't think it will snow long enough to get 6". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 The 18z HRRR surges mix way up into Minnesota. Last storm, the HRRR was one of the farthest south with the snow/mix line. I'm still going with 3-4 inches in Cedar Rapids. I don't think it will snow long enough to get 6". It's also the long-term HRRR. It may be true, but I don't really pay attention to that until it starts getting into the normal time frame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Pssssst....you might wanna double check on that. Nevermind amigo, just saw that your area is under WWA...WATTTT??? Makes no sense...very ironic tbh!!! Wow........GRR needs to rethink this. It never does amigo, it never does. My head's worn raw from all the scratching over the yrs. That office is the "home of the 8-10" WWA". Might be another one freshly minted today 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 It's also the long-term HRRR. It may be true, but I don't really pay attention to that until it starts getting into the normal time frame. The HRRR performed terribly around these parts with the last storm (but most models did). It consistently was showing 8" of snow and showing wave 2 moving in with solid snows on Saturday only for wave 2 to miss us entirely. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Oax afd Based on the potential impacts of snow accumulation, light icing,and eventually strong winds and flash freezing, opted to maintain aWinter Weather Advisory across the forecast area through Saturdaymorning. But we will be monitoring conditions closely to assess theneed for any potential upgrades. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 The HRRR performed terribly around these parts with the last storm (but most models did). It consistently was showing 8" of snow and showing wave 2 moving in with solid snows on Saturday only for wave 2 to miss us entirely. Yeah, I mean if we're all being honest... there is no way to know which model will perform the best each storm. It seems like sometimes a model gets on a roll, but even this.. the next storm could be the only they totally mess up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 The 18z HRRR surges mix way up into Minnesota. Last storm, the HRRR was one of the farthest south with the snow/mix line. I'm still going with 3-4 inches in Cedar Rapids. I don't think it will snow long enough to get 6". Looks like it's mishandling things then. This is a skew T along the IA/MN border right when the HRRR progs mix. This skew-T would definitely be snow. However, I could still see freezing drizzle on backside if the upper levels dry out enough. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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