bud2380 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Only a 6 hour window of snow here tomorrow. Hopefully it comes down hard in those 6 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 MKX AFD update 8:14pm "The Winter Wx Advisory and snow totals look good for Fri aft-Sat. Lake enhanced snow will occur over Sheboygan, Washington, andOzaukee counties with higher snow totals there. An upgrade to aWinter Storm Warning may be needed given wind gusts up to 35 mphand forecasted snow accums of 5-8 inches, but locally higheramounts possible." I'm really liking these trends. Just keep them coming!So weird seeing the WSW in Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota surrounded by the WWA for much of the rest of the great plains followed by a random WSW for Wichita CWA. Will be interesting to see if any of the other advisory areas become warnings by tomorrow; Wichita upgraded about 15 minutes ago... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 03 rap 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 They are calling for 5-9"+ in isolated spots for Metro Detroit and 6-12" for mby Models are spitting out higher numbers, so they raised their accumulations. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Local forecasts for E Nebraska are so ambiguous it’s laughable at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Local forecasts for E Nebraska are so ambiguous it’s laughable at this point.I've seen/heard anywhere from 1 to 6 inches lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Dean Wysocki has dropped the 3-5" down to Lincoln now. Rip us. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 that’s Exactly my thoughtsWhy?? 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Dean Wysocki has dropped the 3-5" down to Lincoln now. Rip us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro (more for Nebraska) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro (more for Nebraska)18Z seems like a pretty reasonable prediction on amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 00z Euro/Euro Control...here we go folks, it's game time...I'm hopeful to at least surpass the biggest snowfall of the season (3.4") from way back in late October on Halloween (sad). Needless to say, unlike storms we have seen to hit my area this season, there is cold air prior to the storms arrival which will aid in quick snowfall accumulations on frozen ground. I enjoy snows that fall on colder surfaces rather than on warmer ones where the pavement does not turn wet, but instead, the snow blows and swirls around. I'll be driving to the city around rush hour so that should be fun. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 06z NAM... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 ^^ 00 NAM (now fixed) 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 ^^ 00 NAMCorrected...meantime, Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of IA/MN/SD... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Corrected...meantime, Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of IA/MN/SD...Boo 06Z NAM. I was liking 00Z. HRRR and RAP still look good for Central Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Most guidance has about a 17-18 MB pressure gradient over the state of IA at 12Z SAT. That 's impressive. I remember just like yesterday that the Great Blizzard of 2009 had 20mb when it was all said done. That gem had 55-60mph wind gusts. Me thinks most of the West/NW Central IA will be shut down in about 26 hours. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Boo 06Z NAM. I was liking 00Z. HRRR and RAP look good still for Central Iowa.Been following like a hawk here at work. Long Range RAP even brings in some wrap around that may boost totals more than what NWS is forecasting. Also- if totals of both RAP and HRRR verify - I wouldn't be shocked to see Blizzard Warning expanded. I don't think the freezing rain forecasted is going to put much of damper on the blowing snow as one would think as several counties in IA are allready under Blizzard warnings and are forecasted to see SiG ICE. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Been following like a hawk here at work. Long Range RAP even brings in some wrap around that may boost totals more than what NWS is forecasting. Also- if totals of both RAP and HRRR verify - I wouldn't be shocked to see Blizzard Warning expanded. I don't think the freezing rain forecasted is going to put much of damper on the blowing snow as one would think as several counties in IA are allready under Blizzard warnings and are forecasted to see SiG ICE.A nice surge of heavy snow developing nicely southeast of Omaha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Radar trends are looking good showing deep moisture heading your guys way out west. Should be a fun day out there watching the snow fly during the day time hours. @ Grizz, wouldn't that be something if some of you can score a Blizzard Warning out of this storm?? It's been just over 10 years since that has occurred for DSM, correct? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Radar trends are looking good showing deep moisture heading your guys way out west. Should be a fun day out there watching the snow fly during the day time hours. @ Grizz, wouldn't that be something if some of you can score a Blizzard Warning out of this storm?? It's been just over 10 years since that has occurred for DSM, correct?I believe we have had several since- but maybe not the actual city of DSM (Polk County) but i could be wrong on that. Certainly the surrounding counties . This I know- many people that spend most of their time in urban areas have NO clue what it's like in the country during a true blizzard. It's something to experience as long as your prepared and makes you appreciate shelter's , plows and places that are warm, 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I believe we have had several since- but maybe not the actual city of DSM (Polk County) but i could be wrong on that. Certainly the surrounding counties . This I know- many people that spend most of their time in urban areas have NO clue what it's like in the country during a true blizzard. It's something to experience as long as your prepared and makes you appreciate shelter's , plows and places that are warm,I do believe we have had blizzard warnings since, but I'm not sure they actually panned out in the Des Moines area. I like south of Norwalk in the country in the 1996 blizzard. We had 5-8 foot drifts covering long stretches of the North to South roads. That was the most memorable and wild storms I can recall other than 2009. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Pretty sweet looking snow squall headed towards Lincoln. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Sleet frz rain mix here, I should get above freezing around 4 or 5 this afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Planning on leaving work at noon today. I think its gonna hit hard when it arrives. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 of the last 6 runs of the RAP have increased totals here in C.IA. The latest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Pretty sweet looking snow squall headed towards Lincoln.This is your Storm.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 of the last 6 runs of the RAP have increased totals here in C.IA. The latest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=What's up with that hole in northeast IA into WI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 What's up with that hole in northeast IA into WI?Dry air... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 DMX said blizzard warning could be expanded but there may be enough ice to keep blowing snow limited a bit. This whole ice/mixed precip deal is irritating. Also only has 3-5" in their wording but the snowfall map on their site has widespread 4-6" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Dry air...Shocker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Latest HRRR= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=18&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Since we're taking an "all models count" approach here, RDPS keeps me as snow for all but a couple hours of the storm. 8.8" final. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 of the last 6 runs of the RAP have increased totals here in C.IA. The latest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=Radar looks pretty solid for C IA. About time to start nowcasting based on radar tracks. Moisture is flowing in pretty good in SW Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 What's up with that hole in northeast IA into WI?The big bad black hole in NE Iowa is showing up on most models now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 So when did dry air start becoming an issue? First I've heard about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 So when did dry air start becoming an issue? First I've heard about itArtic air is dry. It takes a while to saturate the column. What keeps you dry now, will keep the snow later. 3 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200-/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z//O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONEST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 or more inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be decreased in areas of heavy snow. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The dry air is definitely is squeezing the moisture out of the air to the southwest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200-/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z//O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONEST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 or more inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be decreased in areas of heavy snow. Good call by your office, your about to get hammered! Enjoy! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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