TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 12Z ECMWF still shows some areas will have a decent shot at 70 next Saturday... best chance is probably around Portland but it will be warm everywhere. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Warmth. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 FWIW, I don’t see a prolonged warm-up there with tropical forcing stationed in the EHEM. Short term CCKW passage followed by retrograding anticyclonic surf/more western troughing as the PV falls apart. A flip to warm is possible later on, though. I think? I don't expect any warmth at this time of year... so I will happily take whatever we get. I do expect April to be wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I just love the snap in the air today. A rare treat this late in the season! 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 A warm back half of the spring?? Man what’s that gonna be like.Pray to the West-Pacific! If there’s no OKW triggered during the seasonal transition, then a -ENSO transition is more likely and suddenly it’s a much more Aleutian High dominated summer, which have historically spared the west-side from heat. On the other hand, if a potent MJO/OKW takes off next month...flames. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Up to 38 here at noon. Moisture in the area is mostly falling apart now. Pretty fun event here overall even though there was no accumulations. Lots of places around western WA still managed light accumulations above 500’ yesterday morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I just love the snap in the air today. A rare treat this late in the season!I just called home and talked to my daughter. 33 degrees and 20 mph north wind. Pretty crazy stuff for mid March. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 FWIW, I don’t see a prolonged warm-up there with tropical forcing stationed in the EHEM. Short term CCKW passage followed by retrograding anticyclonic surf/more western troughing as the PV falls apart. A flip to warm is possible later on, though. I think? Not to mention warmth in the NW is pretty hard to maintain with low EPO and PNA which is touted with the EPS and other models. As long as the nights are cold I'm good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Pray to the West-Pacific! If there’s no OKW triggered during the seasonal transition, then a -ENSO transition is more likely and suddenly it’s a much more Aleutian High dominated summer, which have historically spared the west-side from heat. On the other hand, if a potent MJO/OKW takes off next month...flames.Hmmm...so it could either end up warmer or cooler than average depending on what global weather patterns do. Food for thought! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Not to mention warmth in the NW is pretty hard to maintain with low EPO and PNA which is touted with the EPS and other models. As long as the nights are cold I'm good. I sleep at night and I am awake during the day... so as long as the days are warm and sunny then I'm good. A pattern we both will enjoy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Holy Mother of God! The solar flux values continue to fall. Only two days with a very small spot in the last 40+ days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Looks like an Indian Ocean MJO wave is unfolding. Good for cold ENSO. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I see there have been reports if blowing dust in the lower Fraser valley. Hopefully places north of Seattle dry out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I see there have been reports if blowing dust in the lower Fraser valley. Hopefully places north of Seattle dry out soon. My mom reported that many of the farm fields between Bellingham and Lynden are under water. Although I suppose the fields that are not under water could produce blowing dust if the top 1 inch of soil dries out in strong wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Another bright spot is that the Portland area really overachieved on overall precip with this event. Good for snow and the building drought. About .80” of liquid water equivalent measured at PDX since last night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 That is a good point... the entire west coast has flipped with WA being dry and CA being wet but this also means OR has a good chance of being wetter than WA at times which is definitely needed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Not to mention warmth in the NW is pretty hard to maintain with low EPO and PNA which is touted with the EPS and other models. As long as the nights are cold I'm good.I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me. Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight, and then the cooling slows even more. Diurnal cycle is like 12-15 degrees. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me. Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight. It’s often ~ 95*F at 5pm and still in the mid 80’s by midnight.Lack of humidity? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 34 with heavy snow. Pretty crazy for mid March here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me. Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight. It’s often ~ 95*F at 5pm and still in the mid 80’s by midnight. The wonders of dry summer air. South-central OR and the northern CA mountains can get summer diurnal ranges in excess of 50ºF. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me. Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight, and then the cooling slows even more. Diurnal cycle is like 12-15 degrees.Leavenworth is in a mountain valley and rarely sees highs around 100 or lows in the low to mid 60s. I would say highs mid 80s and lows around 50 are the norm there in the summer. You must have been there during a pretty major heatwave with those numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Just over 3 inches on the hood this morning. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 My grandparents at 900’ in graham said they have close to 6” of snow on the ground currently. That’s pretty crazy 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Just over 3 inches on the hood this morning.: 0” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 CA finally gets drenched, especially northern CA which is running the biggest precip deficit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 My grandparents at 900’ in graham said they have close to 6” of snow on the ground currently. That’s pretty crazyWow! That is impressive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Hmmm...so it could either end up warmer or cooler than average depending on what global weather patterns do. Food for thought! Lol, yup. Maybe I’m just misreading it, but this looks like a point of bifurcation to me, if such a thing exists without predetermination. I see one route to an absolute furnace of a summer, and another route to a large offshore centered ridge, which is more akin to some developing 1st year -ENSOs. It doesn’t look like 2019 to me (that was more westerly component and smaller 4CH/tighter NPAC z-cells). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Leavenworth is in a mountain valley and rarely sees highs around 100 or lows in the low to mid 60s. I would say highs mid 80s and lows around 50 are the norm there in the summer. You must have been there during a pretty major heatwave with those numbers.It was in early August 2018. I think it was a heatwave since it cooled off into the 80’s a few days later. Was also pretty hazy and smoky. Though not overwhelmingly so. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 My mom reported that many of the farm fields between Bellingham and Lynden are under water. Although I supposed the fields that are not under water could produce blowing dust if the top 1 inch of soil dries out in strong wind.The fields near chilliwack don’t appear to be flooded. And the 0F dew points and 60mph winds are probably drying out the top layer of soil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 This was a bit after 11am, big flakes in Wilsonville. https://youtu.be/R2IcEYyfW3k Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Lol, yup. Maybe I’m just misreading it, but this looks like a point of bifurcation to me, if such a thing exists without predetermination. I see one route to an absolute furnace of a summer, and another route to a large offshore centered ridge, which is more akin to some developing 1st year -ENSOs. It doesn’t look like 2019 to me (that was more westerly component and smaller 4CH/tighter NPAC z-cells).So bifurcation = cooler? It seems like even this event was helped out a little by the recent destabilization up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Clarification: Leavenworth trip was Jul 30th to Aug 3rd in 2018 based on the time stamps on my photo album. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Maybe 2-3 inches on everything, and still dumping snow. 7 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Clarification: Leavenworth trip was Jul 30th to Aug 3rd in 2018 based on the time stamps on my photo album.That was a pretty hott stretch iirc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Sunny and white out now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Maybe 2-3 inches on everything, and still dumping snow.Take a mental snapshot of this moment for the next time you are feeling like we always get the shaft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 So bifurcation = cooler? It seems like even this event was helped out a little by the recent destabilization up there.Wave activity/AAM gyrations perturbing a stable+strong+vertically stacked vortex/+NAM tend to precede cold patterns over Western and/or West-central North America, so I’d agree with you there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Take a mental snapshot of this moment for the next time you are feeling like we always get the shaft.Oh, I got the thundersnow of January 2017 for that, too. I think I ought to be more thankful for the wonderful events that I’ve already experience rather than constantly comparing myself to those who are scoring. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Oh, I got the thundersnow of January 2017 for that, too. I think I ought to be more thankful for the wonderful events that I’ve already experience rather than constantly comparing myself to those who are scoring.That mentality can apply to many things in life aside from weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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