March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still shows some areas will have a decent shot at 70 next Saturday... best chance is probably around Portland but it will be warm everywhere.    

[Deweydog]

Warmth.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, I don’t see a prolonged warm-up there with tropical forcing stationed in the EHEM. Short term CCKW passage followed by retrograding anticyclonic surf/more western troughing as the PV falls apart.

 

A flip to warm is possible later on, though. I think?

 

I don't expect any warmth at this time of year... so I will happily take whatever we get.

 

I do expect April to be wet.  

[snow_wizard]

I just love the snap in the air today.  A rare treat this late in the season!

[Phil]

A warm back half of the spring?? Man what’s that gonna be like.

Pray to the West-Pacific! If there’s no OKW triggered during the seasonal transition, then a -ENSO transition is more likely and suddenly it’s a much more Aleutian High dominated summer, which have historically spared the west-side from heat.

 

On the other hand, if a potent MJO/OKW takes off next month...flames.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 38 here at noon. Moisture in the area is mostly falling apart now. Pretty fun event here overall even though there was no accumulations. Lots of places around western WA still managed light accumulations above 500’ yesterday morning.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just love the snap in the air today.  A rare treat this late in the season!

I just called home and talked to my daughter. 33 degrees and 20 mph north wind. Pretty crazy stuff for mid March.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, I don’t see a prolonged warm-up there with tropical forcing stationed in the EHEM. Short term CCKW passage followed by retrograding anticyclonic surf/more western troughing as the PV falls apart.

 

A flip to warm is possible later on, though. I think?

 

Not to mention warmth in the NW is pretty hard to maintain with low EPO and PNA which is touted with the EPS and other models.  As long as the nights are cold I'm good.

[Jesse]

Pray to the West-Pacific! If there’s no OKW triggered during the seasonal transition, then a -ENSO transition is more likely and suddenly it’s a much more Aleutian High dominated summer, which have historically spared the west-side from heat.

 

On the other hand, if a potent MJO/OKW takes off next month...flames.

Hmmm...so it could either end up warmer or cooler than average depending on what global weather patterns do. Food for thought!

[TT-SEA]

Not to mention warmth in the NW is pretty hard to maintain with low EPO and PNA which is touted with the EPS and other models.  As long as the nights are cold I'm good.

 

 

I sleep at night and I am awake during the day... so as long as the days are warm and sunny then I'm good.   

 

A pattern we both will enjoy.   

[snow_wizard]

Holy Mother of God!  The solar flux values continue to fall.  Only two days with a very small spot in the last 40+ days.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like an Indian Ocean MJO wave is unfolding.  Good for cold ENSO.

[ShawniganLake]

I see there have been reports if blowing dust in the lower Fraser valley. Hopefully places north of Seattle dry out soon.

[TT-SEA]

I see there have been reports if blowing dust in the lower Fraser valley. Hopefully places north of Seattle dry out soon.

 

My mom reported that many of the farm fields between Bellingham and Lynden are under water. Although I suppose the fields that are not under water could produce blowing dust if the top 1 inch of soil dries out in strong wind.

[Jesse]

Another bright spot is that the Portland area really overachieved on overall precip with this event. Good for snow and the building drought. About .80” of liquid water equivalent measured at PDX since last night.

[TT-SEA]

That is a good point... the entire west coast has flipped with WA being dry and CA being wet but this also means OR has a good chance of being wetter than WA at times which is definitely needed.

[Phil]

Not to mention warmth in the NW is pretty hard to maintain with low EPO and PNA which is touted with the EPS and other models. As long as the nights are cold I'm good.

I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me.

 

Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight, and then the cooling slows even more. Diurnal cycle is like 12-15 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me.

 

Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight. It’s often ~ 95*F at 5pm and still in the mid 80’s by midnight.

Lack of humidity?

[BLI snowman]

34 with heavy snow. Pretty crazy for mid March here.

[Omegaraptor]

I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me.

 

Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight. It’s often ~ 95*F at 5pm and still in the mid 80’s by midnight.

 

The wonders of dry summer air.

 

South-central OR and the northern CA mountains can get summer diurnal ranges in excess of 50ºF.

[Jesse]

I love cool nights too. I’ve said this before, but it was amazing to me how quickly you guys cooled off at night when I was up there the last few summers. Right when the Sun went down you could feel the difference. Like instantaneously. Even on those 100*F days in Leavenworth, the temp would drop into the low/mid 60s at night and we opened the windows. Like wtf? Was so foreign to me.

 

Around here it struggles to drop 10 degrees from the afternoon high to midnight, and then the cooling slows even more. Diurnal cycle is like 12-15 degrees.

Leavenworth is in a mountain valley and rarely sees highs around 100 or lows in the low to mid 60s. I would say highs mid 80s and lows around 50 are the norm there in the summer.

 

You must have been there during a pretty major heatwave with those numbers.

[Deweydog]

Just over 3 inches on the hood this morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

My grandparents at 900’ in graham said they have close to 6” of snow on the ground currently. That’s pretty crazy

[Jesse]

Just over 3 inches on the hood this morning.

: 0”

[Omegaraptor]

 

CA finally gets drenched, especially northern CA which is running the biggest precip deficit.

[TT-SEA]

My grandparents at 900’ in graham said they have close to 6” of snow on the ground currently. That’s pretty crazy

Wow!

 

That is impressive.

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

Hmmm...so it could either end up warmer or cooler than average depending on what global weather patterns do. Food for thought!

Lol, yup.

 

Maybe I’m just misreading it, but this looks like a point of bifurcation to me, if such a thing exists without predetermination. I see one route to an absolute furnace of a summer, and another route to a large offshore centered ridge, which is more akin to some developing 1st year -ENSOs.

 

It doesn’t look like 2019 to me (that was more westerly component and smaller 4CH/tighter NPAC z-cells).

[Phil]

Leavenworth is in a mountain valley and rarely sees highs around 100 or lows in the low to mid 60s. I would say highs mid 80s and lows around 50 are the norm there in the summer.

 

You must have been there during a pretty major heatwave with those numbers.

It was in early August 2018. I think it was a heatwave since it cooled off into the 80’s a few days later.

 

Was also pretty hazy and smoky. Though not overwhelmingly so.

[ShawniganLake]

 

My mom reported that many of the farm fields between Bellingham and Lynden are under water. Although I supposed the fields that are not under water could produce blowing dust if the top 1 inch of soil dries out in strong wind.

The fields near chilliwack don’t appear to be flooded. And the 0F dew points and 60mph winds are probably drying out the top layer of soil.

[Timmy Supercell]

This was a bit after 11am, big flakes in Wilsonville.

https://youtu.be/R2IcEYyfW3k

[Jesse]

Lol, yup.

 

Maybe I’m just misreading it, but this looks like a point of bifurcation to me, if such a thing exists without predetermination. I see one route to an absolute furnace of a summer, and another route to a large offshore centered ridge, which is more akin to some developing 1st year -ENSOs.

 

It doesn’t look like 2019 to me (that was more westerly component and smaller 4CH/tighter NPAC z-cells).

So bifurcation = cooler?

 

It seems like even this event was helped out a little by the recent destabilization up there.

[Phil]

Clarification: Leavenworth trip was Jul 30th to Aug 3rd in 2018 based on the time stamps on my photo album.

[Requiem]

Maybe 2-3 inches on everything, and still dumping snow.

[Jesse]

Clarification: Leavenworth trip was Jul 30th to Aug 3rd in 2018 based on the time stamps on my photo album.

That was a pretty hott stretch iirc.

[Blizzard777]

Sunny and white out now 

[Jesse]

Maybe 2-3 inches on everything, and still dumping snow.

Take a mental snapshot of this moment for the next time you are feeling like we always get the shaft.

[Phil]

So bifurcation = cooler?

 

It seems like even this event was helped out a little by the recent destabilization up there.

Wave activity/AAM gyrations perturbing a stable+strong+vertically stacked vortex/+NAM tend to precede cold patterns over Western and/or West-central North America, so I’d agree with you there.

[Requiem]

Take a mental snapshot of this moment for the next time you are feeling like we always get the shaft.

Oh, I got the thundersnow of January 2017 for that, too. I think I ought to be more thankful for the wonderful events that I’ve already experience rather than constantly comparing myself to those who are scoring.

[Jesse]

Oh, I got the thundersnow of January 2017 for that, too. I think I ought to be more thankful for the wonderful events that I’ve already experience rather than constantly comparing myself to those who are scoring.

That mentality can apply to many things in life aside from weather.