ShawniganLake Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 The beginning of the 4th of July weekend just coming into view on the EPS now at the end of the run... subject to change of course. How’s the 500mb looking. Hoping to take a vacation that weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 How’s the 500mb looking. Hoping to take a vacation that weekend Not much of a signal... close to climo. Heights of 576DM is generally nice weather though. But I am sure we will end up with a deep ULL spinning right over WA and SW BC. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 How’s the 500mb looking. Hoping to take a vacation that weekendI need a vacation. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 The beginning of the 4th of July weekend just coming into view on the EPS now at the end of the run... subject to change of course. The question is how much spread. Most of the members could be troughy with a smaller number of very ridgy members keeping that average up. Seems fairly likely in this pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 -PNA The beginning of the 4th of July weekend just coming into view on the EPS now at the end of the run... subject to change of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 Pretty sure anyone can guess what happens when it comes to next weekend... Seems inevitable at this point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 We’re f*cked. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Euro running a solid 7F cooler tomorrow and GFS is HOT for next week. I don’t think the GFS will win out. https://twitter.com/albrechtjay/status/1273750908816330752?s=21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Wow, it really is the year without a summer. Are there volcanic particulates in the atmosphere circling the globe right now? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Model Wars!! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Euro running a solid 7F cooler tomorrow and GFS is HOT for next week. I don’t think the GFS will win out. https://twitter.com/albrechtjay/status/1273750908816330752?s=21Just so you understand the ECMWF cold bias... last night it showed 69 at SEA today. It was actually 77. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Just so you understand the ECMWF cold bias... last night it showed 69 at SEA today. It was actually 77.ECMWF surface temps are weird. The bias seems to depend on the area. They are consistently too cool in Puget Sound and western Oregon lowlands... but for whatever reason they usually seem too hot in lowland California (particularly in mid-long range). Columbia Basin seems to vary. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Not much of a signal... close to climo. Heights of 576DM is generally nice weather though. But I am sure we will end up with a deep ULL spinning right over WA and SW BC. That’s a GOA ridge/western trough pattern. Fairly typical cold ENSO wavetrain. Try to isolate where the ridges/troughs are. Only reason the 850mb mean is warm is because of a smaller cluster of blowtorch members with the ridge nudging a bit eastward. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 The question is how much spread. Most of the members could be troughy with a smaller number of very ridgy members keeping that average up. Seems fairly likely in this pattern.Pretty much this. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 That’s a GOA ridge/western trough pattern. Fairly typical cold ENSO wavetrain. Try to isolate where the ridges/troughs are. Only reason the 850mb mean is warm is because of a smaller cluster of blowtorch members with the ridge nudging a bit eastward.Of course... always the same. It is a very weak signal though. I have seen much more robust troughs and a significantly cold air mass shown over the PNW even at 15 days out on the EPS recently. So there is some hope. But it will probably come down to the placement of a meandering ULL. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Just so you understand the ECMWF cold bias... last night it showed 69 at SEA today. It was actually 77.ECMWF surface temps are weird. The bias seems to depend on the area. They are consistently too cool in Puget Sound and western Oregon lowlands... but for whatever reason they usually seem too hot in lowland California (particularly in mid-long range). Columbia Basin seems to vary.I tried explaining this to Jesse yesterday. I figured it had a cold bias but didn’t realize it was that extreme 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 That’s a GOA ridge/western trough pattern. Fairly typical cold ENSO wavetrain. Try to isolate where the ridges/troughs are. Only reason the 850mb mean is warm is because of a smaller cluster of blowtorch members with the ridge nudging a bit eastward.The Cfs is showing the same thing. I would feel better if it was showing ridging since whatever it shows the opposite always seems to happen, but like you say Phil a broken clock is right twice a day heh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 The Cfs is showing the same thing. I would feel better if it was showing ridging since whatever it shows the opposite always seems to happen, but like you say Phil a broken clock is right twice a day heh100° Fourth of July? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 I tried explaining this to Jesse yesterday. I figured it had a cold bias but didn’t realize it was that extreme Its not normally 8 degrees... but it was today. Its consistently 3-5 degrees too cold in the warm season for the entire Puget Sound region. And often in the cold season as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Wow, it really is the year without a summer. Are there volcanic particulates in the atmosphere circling the globe right now?The funny part is, it’s looking increasingly unlikely even June actually ends up below average for much of the region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Even UHI-infested SEA was below normal on 11 days in a 14-day stretch that ended yesterday. And it rained on most of those days. So its understandable right now that people are anxious to see some nicer summer weather. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 77/50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Something about these drought maps that makes me wonder is why it seems the severity of the drought follows along orographic lines. Just abnormally dry in the cascades where it rains much more on average than where it is severe drought in the valley which gets much less rain on average. This is supposed to be a departure from normal conditions. Have we really gotten pattern after pattern of orographic lift being favored in such a way that the drought ends up being much less severe in places that were already supposed to be getting a lot more rain? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 The Cfs is showing the same thing. I would feel better if it was showing ridging since whatever it shows the opposite always seems to happen, but like you say Phil a broken clock is right twice a day hehEww what a nasty pattern. I have a bad feeling about the second week of July out this way. Death ridge indicators increasing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Nice evening out there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Nice evening out there.It really is here as well except for my neighbor who decided now is a good time to mow his yard instead of 4 hours ago when he got home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 It really is here as well except for my neighbor who decided now is a good time to mow his yard instead of 4 hours ago when he got home.Sorry about that. Long day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Sundog from last night. It was barely visible but there 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Something about these drought maps that makes me wonder is why it seems the severity of the drought follows along orographic lines. Just abnormally dry in the cascades where it rains much more on average than where it is severe drought in the valley which gets much less rain on average. This is supposed to be a departure from normal conditions. Have we really gotten pattern after pattern of orographic lift being favored in such a way that the drought ends up being much less severe in places that were already supposed to be getting a lot more rain?Screenshot_20200618-205747_Chrome.jpgThere has been a very strong E-W gradient with precipitation this May and June at least in the Portland area. Compare Hillsboro to any east valley or foothill station. The driest anomalies have been in the western part of the Willamette Valley thanks to rainshadowing in NW flow. NE Oregon is also not in drought because of NW flow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 It really is here as well except for my neighbor who decided now is a good time to mow his yard instead of 4 hours ago when he got home.I’m amazed sound carries all the way there from North Bend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 80/50 here today. First 80 degree day of the month, looks like quite a few to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 100° Fourth of July?We joke but the 00z Gfs shows some type of ridging return for the fourth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Its not normally 8 degrees... but it was today. Its consistently 3-5 degrees too cold in the warm season for the entire Puget Sound region. And often in the cold season as well.I wonder why that is, they can’t fix it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 I wonder why that is, they can’t fix it?As long as its consistent then it's fine... its easy to adjust. And its very consistent. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Eww what a nasty pattern. I have a bad feeling about the second week of July out this way. Death ridge indicators increasing.A ridge out there most of the time means trough out here so we will see what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 As long as its consistent then it's fine... its easy to adjust. And its very consistent.Except when it's 8 degrees off instead of 3. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Except when it's 8 degrees off instead of 3. Yeah... its usually 3-5 degrees. But it can range from 1-8 degrees. Its almost never too warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Wow, it really is the year without a summer. Are there volcanic particulates in the atmosphere circling the globe right now?Yeah the eruptions of Taal and Krakatoa earlier this year created massive amounts of volcanic particulates. This summer could be even worse than 1954. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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