July 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

It's a beautiful summery morning with a nice SW wind out ahead of the approaching CF along with some spotty showers incoming.  Currently, 72F/61F and heading up to near 90F but a strong Lake Breeze pushes down the lake and by the afternoon/dinner time it may be cool enough to open up the windows!  These are the perks of living by a big lake in the summer season.

Speaking of showers/storms, one is right over Volo, IL where my bro lives...#Jackpot

 

 

 

[Tom]

Nice to see our OKC boys getting a real nice dose of torrential rains overnight and this morning...numerous flash flooding warning in place

 

 

[Tom]

@Clinton, I think today you break the trend my friend!  It's about D**n time...nearly all the global models show a sweet MCS heading your way later tonight and the pattern keeps delivering...

 

 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

Nice to see our OKC boys getting a real nice dose of torrential rains overnight and this morning...numerous flash flooding warning in place

 

 

Yeah, I've been awake since 2 AM this morning, the lightning was INSANE!

 

Over 2 inches right now, over 5-6 in the past week!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 85/57 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 100% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 28 MPH out of the SW. Here in MBY the overnight low for today was 68 there was 0.03” of rain fall with a shower this AM. At the current time it is 69 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 99 was set in 1936 and the record low of 45 was set in 1945. The record rain fall of 2.72” fell in 1923. Last year the H/L was 81/63.

There were some heavy thunderstorms yesterday across parts of the UP. There was a brief shower here this morning but it only dropped 0.03” of rain here. The week ahead looks to be just a little on both side of average with tomorrow being a cool day for mid July. The rest of the week should see highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s  Lows should be mostly in the low to mid 60’s there will be several chances of rain.

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I think today you break the trend my friend!  It's about D**n time...nearly all the global models show a sweet MCS heading your way later tonight and the pattern keeps delivering...

 

 

 

 

Clinton is probably in a better spot for good storms this week than I am. Still very dry here with lawns drying up again. But only 3 - 4 miles se. of me has green lawns after around 3" of rain from June 24 to July 2.

[Black Hole]

I've been just outside the fun the last 2 rounds of MCSs that have slammed OKC but its remained reasonable. Looks horrible tomorrow though with much warmer temperatures and lots of humidity. Could see a return to storm chances beginning Thursday. 

[Bryan1117]

Picked up 0.20” last night from the dying line of storms that dropped up to 4” hail in Northeast Nebraska… even though we didn’t get much it’s still better than the awful and bone dry pattern that dominated most of the spring

Looks like we have a good shot at severe storms and very heavy rain in Eastern Nebraska tonight… looks like there are some hints of a derecho passing through from NW to SE overnight if everything comes together just right.

[chescowxman]

It looks like a couple slightly above normal temp days are on tap for the area over the next couple of days. However, 90 degree plus temps look to yet again miss most of Chester County. Later tomorrow the weather looks to get a bit unsettled again with a good chance of showers and t-storms by Thursday night and chances continue through much of the upcoming weekend.

Records for today: High 99 (1936) / Low 45 (1898) / Rain 2.09" (2009)

[BMT]

yes, please 

[Andie]

I don’t know why they change the temp by 1* per day over the next 10 days .  
It isn’t like we notice it. 101 or 102 so what?  Same with humidity.  51%. 
Makes one dream of Fall.

[Iceresistance]

Dumped the rain gauge, 2.75 inches!


I already got over 6 inches in the past week! This is the wettest July in YEARS already!

[Clinton]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I think today you break the trend my friend!  It's about D**n time...nearly all the global models show a sweet MCS heading your way later tonight and the pattern keeps delivering...

 

 

 

 

Models look good I hope things work out differently this time.  We may be forced to sell off some of our cattle if we miss on these chances for rain.  We are quickly running out of grass and our hay crop this year was not enough to get us through the winter if we had to feed hay this summer and fall.

[Stormy]

It was a very warm muggy evening and I think the front has stalled about overhead. And just now some storms have developed along I-80 just north of my location. I'm wondering if that's part of the WAA wing which may have the heaviest rainfall amounts? Seeing some lightning with thunder now. 

[clintbeed1993]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Models look good I hope things work out differently this time.  We may be forced to sell off some of our cattle if we miss on these chances for rain.  We are quickly running out of grass and our hay crop this year was not enough to get us through the winter if we had to feed hay this summer and fall.

Not off to a good start when the previous storms likely forecast for overnight disappeared. Color me skeptical on much happening later today, at least in Northern MO. You might get the redevelopment down there. Hot and muggy with no rain is literally the worst

[hawkstwelve]

Got woken up by a fairly strong severe thunderstorm ongoing right now. Pounding heavy rain, tons of lightning/thunder, and 70+ mph winds.

 

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got woken up by a fairly strong severe thunderstorm ongoing right now. Pounding heavy rain, tons of lightning/thunder, and 70+ mph winds.

 

OMA peeps appear to be next in line as this line should hold together...nice to see action this morning!  I also got woken up to the sound of distant thunder as storms rolled through the southern burbs.

[Tom]

As long as this wet pattern persists, I don't foresee any real HEAT coming up this way.  Later next week the humidity will build but then chances of another round of cooler air to filter in from the north as a stout trough carves out for the GL's and SE Canada.  When I was out in AZ back in May & June, I couldn't believe how quick the drought formed across the eastern ag belt in the MW.  Over the past few weeks, literally the day I drove home, the pattern began to show signs of what the LRC really should be delivering.  I'm very optimistic that the remainder of this summer season will be one of the best ones in recent years around these parts.  Is there such thing as a "Perfect Summer?"  

 

 

[Stormy]

The line is bowing out in Nebraska. Is this the beginning of a derecho? Maybe it's good the front sagged further south last evening taking the severe stuff further south, but we desperately need more rain. Hoping for at least 1".  2" would be better. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Stormy said:

The line is bowing out in Nebraska. Is this the beginning of a derecho? Maybe it's good the front sagged further south last evening taking the severe stuff further south, but we desperately need more rain. Hoping for at least 1".  2" would be better. 

That line looks nasty!  Tornado warning issued for the northern sections...

Quote

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
527 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

IAC085-133-NEC021-173-121045-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-230712T1045Z/
Monona IA-Harrison IA-Burt NE-Thurston NE-
527 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MONONA...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN BURT AND
SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTIES...

At 526 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles north of Lyons, or 17 miles northeast of West
Point, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Decatur around 535 AM CDT.
  Onawa and Blencoe around 545 AM CDT.

 

[Tom]

The atmosphere is surely juiced up!  80F/71F

[Bryan1117]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

That line looks nasty!  Tornado warning issued for the northern sections...

 

Hunkering down here, severe thunderstorm warning for 70+ MPH wind gusts. This line is moving FAST at almost 80 MPH, expecting Omaha to take a direct hit from the worst part of this line. Hopefully we can keep our power as this could be rough, hope everyone here locally is heeding this warning as we have missed most of the severe storms this year - honestly this line looks like it means business.

Howells, NE - 78 MPH wind gust just reported!

[Tom]

#whicked...

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Hunkering down here, severe thunderstorm warning for 70+ MPH wind gusts. This line is moving FAST at almost 80 MPH, expecting Omaha to take a direct hit from the worst part of this line. Hopefully we can keep our power as this could be rough, hope everyone is heeding this warming as we have missed a lot of the worst of storm systems this year - this line looks like it means business.

Howells, NE - 78 MPH wind gust just reported!

I'm praying for you guys as this line means business...Hunker down my friend!

[Tom]

This coming week/weekend is going to be a Historic stretch of weather for the SW...my goodness, I have never seen these extreme temps for such a long period of time.  The Monsoon can't come soon enough.  It's trying hard to make an appearance up in the mountains.

 

I've experienced 117F heat back in 2020, but not consecutive days like what's coming up...#southwestsizzle

 

[Bryan1117]

Worst of the line has passed through here with estimated 50-60 MPH winds, lots of lightning and thunder, and torrential rains. It’s only been raining here for 25-30 minutes and I have picked up just under an inch of rainfall in my rain gauge so far.

Seeing a few early reports of trees down and power outages across the city of Omaha. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 82/61 there was a trace of rain fall. There was 67% of possible sunshine the strongest wind gust was 27MPH out of the west. There were 7 CDD’s and the total for July so far is 86 that is a departure of -2. The overnight low this AM in MBY has been 58 at the current time it is 60 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 106 was set in 1936 and the record low of 42 was set in 1989. The record rain fall amount of 1.42” fell in 1992. Last year the high low was 79/63.

The coldest maximum for today is 71 set in 1917. With clouds and rain we will have to see how warm it gets today as there is a good chance it will be one of the cooler maximum temperatures for the date. There is a chance of some heavy rain today. And there are several chances of rain for the next week. We will be going on a short trip next week and will be in northern Ohio for a few days. We are going to Put in Bay and then to the Rock in Roll Hall of fame. My wife and I have been to both but we are taking my oldest son and his wife they have not been to either. Temperatures next week look to be a little cooler than average with chances of rain.

[Andie]

Beginning our 10 day trek through Hades this morning.  
Currently 80*. Humidity 48%
High today 103* by 4pm.  

Wow, Fall is sounding real good right now.  

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This coming week/weekend is going to be a Historic stretch of weather for the SW...my goodness, I have never seen these extreme temps for such a long period of time.  The Monsoon can't come soon enough.  It's trying hard to make an appearance up in the mountains.

 

I've experienced 117F heat back in 2020, but not consecutive days like what's coming up...#southwestsizzle

 

I'm glad every day I don't live there anymore. 

[Black Hole]

Still looking like we cook this afternoon with dew points of 75-80 and temperatures of 95-100F across the area. But should see rain chances pick up as soon as this evening and continue till Tuesday or so. 

[Black Hole]

One thing that I have been thinking about is how "this summers pattern" seems to be the SW ridge and the Great Lakes trough. Sometimes there is transient variability but it keeps going back to that general idea and models have to keep catching up as we get closer to make the trough stronger and more long-lived. Let's hope so, it's making summer semi tolerable. 

[chescowxman]

Yesterday was our 3rd straight slightly cooler than normal day...but temps the next 2 days should rise to above normal levels. We may even see a couple lower spots in the county hit 90 degrees. Some of the higher elevation spots have still yet to see a 90 degree day this summer. Philadelphia will today see their 7th such day. Rain chances increase by tomorrow night and at least a 50% chance of showers through much of the upcoming weekend.

Records for today: High 96 (1936) / Low 48 (1945) / Rain 3.58" (2004)

[Iceresistance]

Well, I'm paying for the rainfall, I'm under the first Excessive Heat Warning of the year, Heat Index Values up to 113°F expected

[bud2380]

There is a report of 1.23" of rain just up the street from me and it's still coming down hard.  Man did we ever need this.  There's a chance we could hit almost 2" at this rate.  

[chescowxman]

I was interviewed by The Daily Local News in West Chester regarding the recent storms see his article below from the Daily Local.

https://www.dailylocal.com/2023/07/10/weekend-washout-sees-different-dump-of-drops-across-chester-county/?fbclid=IwAR2Zk8nJlYRTVp3aVFLP9n09uTzu9XhrauIxgPC5d4W1_ki85uF5euH-r4Q

[Hawkeye]

Pretty disappointing here in Cedar Rapids.  The heavier rain went well north and also just south.  There is a dry pocket in between.  I finished with 0.66".  Now we get another dry week.

[BMT]

I finished with .94" in my backyard.  The heaviest rain fell overnight from a rouge cell that developed overhead.  

[FV-Mike]

Absolute monsoon all day today. Going to be some big rain total across the CHI

[tStacsh]

From severe drought to a flood watch.   Looks like a snowfall forecast this evening.  Widespread 1-3" of rain.  

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Well, I'm paying for the rainfall, I'm under the first Excessive Heat Warning of the year, Heat Index Values up to 113°F expected

We’ve been under Heat Warnings starting in June. Under another today.
currently 100. But we’ll see 103* by 4pm.  And humid at 69%.  
It’s brutal.   
I have a viscous headache as even A/C, though cool, doesn’t spare us the atmosphere.  Pretty tough summer.  
I’ve known worse but this has been an ugly one.   
I'm looking forward to shorter days and Ahhhhtum!