Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 When it’s 88/73 at 930AM 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 9 hours ago, Cloud said: Anyone with window seats got quite a treat heading into LAX last night. Near the end of the video when the plane is nearing touchdown is a thing of beauty. happy birthday America! Is there a shot that Massimo has never gotten? Gotten as in just taken from other people and reposted it for clout and internet points. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, Phil said: When it’s 88/73 at 930AM Me driving to work this morning in the jeep with no roof and doors and its 43F outside. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted July 6, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Hello all and have been hanging in Az. Temps 90-110 (pending if I’m in the valley or not) but always breezy which really helps. monsoon season held up because of the ridge down here so nothing exciting going on weather wise. I’m just enjoying friends and also out exploring. looks likes it’s been gorgeous back home as well according to my nest cams. Pink Coral Sand Dunes and Buckskin Gulch 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 15 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I know. I quoted you since you also mentioned 2018 but it was more for clarification since I expect Phil will say this is complete opposite of 2018. That’s because it is! Underneath it all. Intraseasonally-enhanced W-Pac convection has it feeling like 2018 in the PNW *for now* (very different out here & in other regions) but that is not the LP/background state this year, where-as it was in 2018. So where-as that W-Pac/P7 type pattern amplified in July/August 2018, the opposite will (probably) happen this year. The differences between 2023 and 2018 are substantial, and that should become increasingly apparent as July rolls on. Also, MJO analog composites have been projecting a heatwave in early/mid July for months, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I’ve been talking about it for awhile. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s because it is! Underneath it all. Intraseasonally-enhanced W-Pac convection has it feeling like 2018 in the PNW *for now* (very different out here & in other regions) but that is not the LP/background state this year, where-as it was in 2018. So where-as that W-Pac/P7 type pattern amplified in July/August 2018, the opposite will (probably) happen this year. The differences between 2023 and 2018 are substantial, and that should become increasingly apparent as July rolls on. Also, MJO analog composites have been projecting a heatwave in early/mid July for months, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I’ve been talking about it for awhile. So we will see a difference between this year and July 2018 starting in august? 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 only good thing about days that heat up faster is convection starts earlier. can already hear thunder from 2 different directions and it’s not even noon. lots of hot towers shooting up. Nature does have a way of course correcting 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So we will see a difference between this year and July 2018 starting in august? I think sooner than that. Second half (or at least final third) of this month should be quite different in terms of the 500mb pattern. I remember seeing that W-Pacific/Phase-7 low pass signal in 2018 and knowing the pattern was going to get progressively hotter in the West through the summer. There is no such signal this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 FWIW, ENSO/LP + off-domain/seasonal LP analog composites suggest an early start to autumn in the West. September looks pretty active out there verbatim (and miserable/stagnant out here, as usual). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 June 2018 was almost 10F warmer here than this June so not a very good match outside of the Pnw. Also look at these temp ranges in Southern Cal yesterday! 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: That’s because it is! Underneath it all. Intraseasonally-enhanced W-Pac convection has it feeling like 2018 in the PNW *for now* (very different out here & in other regions) but that is not the LP/background state this year, where-as it was in 2018. So where-as that W-Pac/P7 type pattern amplified in July/August 2018, the opposite will (probably) happen this year. The differences between 2023 and 2018 are substantial, and that should become increasingly apparent as July rolls on. Also, MJO analog composites have been projecting a heatwave in early/mid July for months, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I’ve been talking about it for awhile. I think we lucked out on this heatwave if we escape with a max of 91 at Sea-Tac and only one, maybe two days at 90+. Plus the lack of a strong thermal trough is a huge win with all of the fires and fireworks everywhere. If the easterlies were cranking it could have been a real disaster. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: June 2018 was almost 10F warmer here than this June so not a very good match outside of the Pnw. Also look at these temp ranges in Southern Cal yesterday! This June was quite a bit warmer than 2018 IMBY. It did fall behind Junes of 2021, 2015, 2009. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 In terms of area burned. This wildfire season in BC is now 3rd worst. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: I think sooner than that. Second half (or at least final third) of this month should be quite different in terms of the 500mb pattern. I remember seeing that W-Pacific/Phase-7 low pass signal in 2018 and knowing the pattern was going to get progressively hotter in the West through the summer. There is no such signal this year. The current low pass projected map from the Roundy site shows lots of ridging in the second half of July and first half of August. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 23 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: I think we lucked out on this heatwave if we escape with a max of 91 at Sea-Tac and only one, maybe two days at 90+. Plus the lack of a strong thermal trough is a huge win with all of the fires and fireworks everywhere. If the easterlies were cranking it could have been a real disaster. Really ended up working out perfectly. The smoke never got too bad and the inevitable firework smog lifted quickly on Wednesday morning. And yet the weather has been outstanding for all the holiday activities with basically wall-to-wall sunshine since last week and warm temps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Farmers in parts of the Canadian prairies are in a tough spot currently. Crop failures are already occurring. 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Looking at the models the we should continue to be well above average well into the future. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking at the models the we should continue to be well above average well into the future. October will probably be chilly this fall. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Just now, ShawniganLake said: October will probably be chilly this fall. Wouldn't doubt it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: October will probably be chilly this fall. The average ones were pretty nice in southern Oregon. The last cold one though was bone dry, one thing I didn't like about Fall 2019. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm My in-laws that live there left this week to make their yearly trek to our driveway in their travel trailer until September. Looks like they just beat the real heat. They take their time coming up and will be here in a few weeks. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: Looking big. 1 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm It’s a dry heat, so it isn’t that bad. Don’t have to shovel sunshine!!! 1 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm Looking like it could be an extended heat wave too. Looks like Phoenix could go at least a week straight with 110+ temps. Hopefully it doesn’t decide to shift north at some point. 2 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking at the models the we should continue to be well above average well into the future. At least there's this just 4 days away. Euro/GFS also hinted at more troughy conditions towards days 9-10. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Just 71 here at 1 pm. Nine degrees behind yesterday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: At least there's this just 4 days away. Euro/GFS also hinted at more troughy conditions towards days 9-10. Forks looks HOTT! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Just now, T-Town said: Just 71 here at 1 pm. Nine degrees behind yesterday. 80 here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: 80 here. I think the marine air must have reached here. Only 70 in Shelton right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 92 degrees outside! 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: At least there's this just 4 days away. Euro/GFS also hinted at more troughy conditions towards days 9-10. Yes... ECMWF shows marine layer until noon and a high only in the mid 70s on Monday. Then back to sunny and warmer. But not too warm. Goldilocks weather. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 81.9°F. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 My phone says perpetual goldilocks weather... although today is a little too warm for me. 1 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 79 at SEA and 86 in North Bend... typical of a weak marine push day and very common in the summer. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Peak of 91 at SEA, no hundo for PDX, temps 10 degrees cooler today...certainly not the worst case scenario based on what some models were showing a week or so ago. 2 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said: I think we lucked out on this heatwave if we escape with a max of 91 at Sea-Tac and only one, maybe two days at 90+. Plus the lack of a strong thermal trough is a huge win with all of the fires and fireworks everywhere. If the easterlies were cranking it could have been a real disaster. Yeah that’s an interesting point. All the important intraseasonal scale variables were/are aligned for a heatwave pattern, but the outcome is pretty “meh” south of the border. 4 hours ago, TT-SEA said: The current low pass projected map from the Roundy site shows lots of ridging in the second half of July and first half of August. Be careful with how you interpret that graphic. Because it is a 100-day mean, it won’t pick up week to week pattern variability. I.E: That is a 3+ month time period reflected on that graphic. Which why it’s often referred to as the “background” or “low frequency” state. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 Looking at the point forecast for SLE, highs in the 83-88 range for the next week. Could definitely be much worse, but still above normal, as average is in the 81-82 range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2023 Report Share Posted July 6, 2023 It could be awhile before we see another bonafide La Niña event. All of the post-WWII 3+ year -ENSO/Niña cycles did not see another La Niña for at least 4 years. 1954-57: 7 years (1964/65, moderate). 1974-76: 8 years (1983/84, weak). 1999-02: 4 years (2005/06, weak). And none of those subsequent La Niñas were overly potent. Weak/moderate in each case. Actually, both 1983/84 and 2005/06 barely met the criteria, so those wait times could be extended to 9yrs and 6yrs, respectively, by that criteria. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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