July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s a tinderbox across southern and south central Oregon. 
 

To add to this, I know soil moisture may be worse elsewhere, but half the trees are dead in southern and south central Oregon…

[TT-SEA]

Per the 12Z ECMWF... partly cloudy and mid 70s on Tuesday with some lingering morning showers north of Seattle.    Then mid to upper 70s from Wednesday- Friday and generally sunny.   Very little marine layer even in the morning on those days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG

Maximum 1-Month Mean Max Temperature 
for EUGENE-MAHLON SWEET FIELD, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 89.7, 2023-07-31, 9
2, 88.9, 2021-07-31, 0
3, 88.2, 2015-07-31, 0
4, 87.8, 1970-07-31, 0
5, 87.7, 1938-07-31, 0
6, 87.5, 2014-07-31, 0
7, 87.5, 1958-07-31, 0
8, 87.4, 2018-07-31, 0
9, 87.3, 2003-07-31, 0
-, 87.3, 1985-07-31, 0

Period of record: 1938-06-01 to 2023-07-22

Maximum 1-Month Mean Avg Temperature 
for EUGENE-MAHLON SWEET FIELD, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 71.7, 2023-07-31, 9
2, 71.5, 2015-07-31, 0
3, 71.4, 2021-07-31, 0
4, 71.2, 2022-07-31, 0
5, 71.0, 1958-07-31, 0
6, 70.8, 2014-07-31, 0
7, 70.3, 1990-07-31, 0
8, 70.1, 1938-07-31, 0
9, 69.9, 1985-07-31, 0
-, 69.9, 1970-07-31, 0

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s a tinderbox across southern and south central Oregon. 
 

To add to this, I know soil moisture may be worse elsewhere, but half the trees are dead in southern and south central Oregon…

Thank you. And the upcoming pattern brings no rain to this area so it’s only going to get worse.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OMG

Maximum 1-Month Mean Max Temperature 
for EUGENE-MAHLON SWEET FIELD, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 89.7, 2023-07-31, 9
2, 88.9, 2021-07-31, 0
3, 88.2, 2015-07-31, 0
4, 87.8, 1970-07-31, 0
5, 87.7, 1938-07-31, 0
6, 87.5, 2014-07-31, 0
7, 87.5, 1958-07-31, 0
8, 87.4, 2018-07-31, 0
9, 87.3, 2003-07-31, 0
-, 87.3, 1985-07-31, 0

Period of record: 1938-06-01 to 2023-07-22

Maximum 1-Month Mean Avg Temperature 
for EUGENE-MAHLON SWEET FIELD, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 71.7, 2023-07-31, 9
2, 71.5, 2015-07-31, 0
3, 71.4, 2021-07-31, 0
4, 71.2, 2022-07-31, 0
5, 71.0, 1958-07-31, 0
6, 70.8, 2014-07-31, 0
7, 70.3, 1990-07-31, 0
8, 70.1, 1938-07-31, 0
9, 69.9, 1985-07-31, 0
-, 69.9, 1970-07-31, 0

It’s July 22nd

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

Looks pretty bad for here.

[Cold Snap]

I feel like this is a pretty good call based off what the models are showing.

[Anti Marine Layer]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s July 22nd

That was yesterday 

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Per the 12Z ECMWF... partly cloudy and mid 70s on Tuesday with some lingering morning showers north of Seattle.    Then mid to upper 70s from Wednesday- Friday and generally sunny.   Very little marine layer even in the morning on those days.

You really shouldn’t be driving a boat and checking the EURO at the same time…Especially while whipping Cal around on the tube. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

Some photos from a hike in the North Cascades on Friday

 

Copper Ridge is awesome! Did that as a trail run in October 2018, one of my favorite days of all time. 

[Cold Snap]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OMG

Maximum 1-Month Mean Max Temperature 
for EUGENE-MAHLON SWEET FIELD, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 89.7, 2023-07-31, 9
2, 88.9, 2021-07-31, 0
3, 88.2, 2015-07-31, 0
4, 87.8, 1970-07-31, 0
5, 87.7, 1938-07-31, 0
6, 87.5, 2014-07-31, 0
7, 87.5, 1958-07-31, 0
8, 87.4, 2018-07-31, 0
9, 87.3, 2003-07-31, 0
-, 87.3, 1985-07-31, 0

Period of record: 1938-06-01 to 2023-07-22

Maximum 1-Month Mean Avg Temperature 
for EUGENE-MAHLON SWEET FIELD, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 71.7, 2023-07-31, 9
2, 71.5, 2015-07-31, 0
3, 71.4, 2021-07-31, 0
4, 71.2, 2022-07-31, 0
5, 71.0, 1958-07-31, 0
6, 70.8, 2014-07-31, 0
7, 70.3, 1990-07-31, 0
8, 70.1, 1938-07-31, 0
9, 69.9, 1985-07-31, 0
-, 69.9, 1970-07-31, 0

SEA is having its 3rd warmest July average high through the 22nd. The troughing will most likely bump that down a bit hopefully to the point where it doesn’t finish in the top 10.

[Phil]

Has actually PDX hit 100°F yet?

[FroYoBro]

6 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

That was yesterday 

Calendar burn!

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

2012 was glorious for Thunderstorms I remember thunderstorms once or twice per week during July/August in Western Washington 

We had one pop up right overhead out of nowhere. It was above the existing marine layer and completely unforecast. Lightning struck just blocks away at times.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Has actually PDX hit 100°F yet?

It hasn’t yet.

Lots of consistent milquetoast +4-5 departure warmth but not much actual heat.

[MossMan]

My family has been on vacation out on the WA coast and the weather there looks to have been perfect! I am home with the dogs, one of which is not doing very well health wise so I have stayed close to home. Anyway, it appears they picked the perfect weekend to be out there! 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My family has been on vacation out on the WA coast and the weather there looks to have been perfect! I am home with the dogs, one of which is not doing very well health wise so I have stayed close to home. Anyway, it appears they picked the perfect weekend to be out there! 

Sorry to hear re: dog.  

Your wife and daughter have solid cold water tolerance. Might give Tim’s backflipping sons a run for their money.

[Phil]

EPS projects some degree of constructive interference between MJO/tropical circulation and equatorial EPAC +SSTAs to open August. Can already see some of that w/rt the current CCKW.

That is a change. More El Niño esque, less monsoonal/off-eq component in VP200 anomalies. While NH subtropical U850 still reflective of -NPMM circulation structure, waves better resemble low pass EOF(s) for canonical/EPAC Niño.

[Phil]

August could start off as a lite version of May/June pattern. 4CH influence attenuates (current IS pulse ends) with another cycle of warm/dry in PNW/W-Canada, cooldown in the SW US.

PNW/W-Canada heat probably quick, lasts maybe a week? Then possibly a more 1997-like pattern thereafter? Time will tell.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

That was yesterday 

Not according to the period of record!

[YahRaEl]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

August could start off as a lite version of May/June pattern. 4CH influence attenuates (current IS pulse ends) with another cycle of warm/dry in PNW/W-Canada, cooldown in the SW US.

PNW/W-Canada heat probably quick, lasts maybe a week? Then possibly a more 1997-like pattern thereafter? Time will tell.

97 like pattern what was that like?

[Phil]

The fact it hit 90°F imby today is absurd. 850mb temp 12C, right under trough axis, with onshore winds, cloudy interludes, and moist soil following downpours.

I don’t know how 2000/2001 were as cool as they were. Bring back the LIA already.

[Darrington Troll]

Any fun winter predictions to keep our minds off this unbearable sunshine?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I love the clear summer nights in the yard!

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

Any fun winter predictions to keep our minds off this unbearable sunshine?

I’m expecting a dud winter but I’m hoping we can squeak by at least one decent snow event like 2-4”.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I love the clear summer nights in the yard!

[Meatyorologist]

Finishing August off like 1997 would be decent. Not incredible, but decent.

August 2021 had a genuinely chilly back half after the big midmonth heatwave, even from the perspective of 1951-2000 climo. Maybe we can squeak something like that in given the modern precedent?

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day on the lake!   

And trouble brewing to the NW.    Summer is over. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Greetings,

It has been a rather splendid Summer thus far. We do need rain, but not a bunch of lightning start fires. Now that my vertigo has improved dramatically I've been driving all over the place fishing and adventuring all over the Cascades and North-central Oregon. Plan on doing a lot more of that through mid-late October hopefully.

The REAL news is we're just a shade over 3 months away from tracking arctic air masses to our north, checking the YWL-BLI, YKA-OMK, OMK-PDT, PDX-DLS, OTH-GEG gradients, and of course all the Devastating Trendz! C'MON!!!!

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

[SnowWillarrive]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous day on the lake!   

And trouble brewing to the NW.    Summer is over. 

I hope summer ends early this year. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

I hope summer ends early this year. 

Nah... just hope we have regular rain mixed in.   My bet is on an early spring next year too.

[Cloud]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous day on the lake!   

And trouble brewing to the NW.    Summer is over. 

Summer is over

[SilverFallsAndrew]

88 at Eugene and Salem. 

[Meatyorologist]

37 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Greetings,

It has been a rather splendid Summer thus far. We do need rain, but not a bunch of lightning start fires. Now that my vertigo has improved dramatically I've been driving all over the place fishing and adventuring all over the Cascades and North-central Oregon. Plan on doing a lot more of that through mid-late October hopefully.

The REAL news is we're just a shade over 3 months away from tracking arctic air masses to our north, checking the YWL-BLI, YKA-OMK, OMK-PDT, PDX-DLS, OTH-GEG gradients, and of course all the Devastating Trendz! C'MON!!!!

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

I saw you liked my latest post and I was wondering if you'd pop in! Awesome to hear from ya Rob, glad your vertigo is much improved and you're out living life again!

[Anti Marine Layer]

No signs of an onshore push or coastal wind reversal on the satellite. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

No light pollution there.

[LowerGarfield]

Sitting at 96F and low humidity, just 20%.

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

@Front Ranger

We need a Mariners miracle gif now. Going to bot 9th. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

BAM!! 90F burger again!