October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

I’m hearing talk of severe weather in No Tx Wednesday or Thursday.  
Is that fact or fiction? 

I've not seen anything to agree with this. There is a cold front and winds supposed to move through the area, but no forecasts of storms at this time. 

[OKwx2k4]

Another thing I want to come in to make a note of, the GFS has handled cold air masses at range better since September 10th or so than any other model. 

It's still hedged to the warm side vs verification, but I am pretty impressed with it. 

The AO is continuing the pattern it started back in July, in my opinion. Looking ahead, once the tropics go through more seasonal retrogression, cold will get on the way again. 

Sometimes that rogue AO crash in July is a tell. This year its proving its worth.

[Clinton]

It looks as though my best chance for rain this week might be tonight as a warm front lifts through the area.  What was looking like a big rain event for the I-70 corridor a few days ago may end up being a big rain event for the I-90 corridor leaving me with .25 in or less. 

[chescowxman]

Our generally below average temperatures look to continue for much of the next 10 days or more. Dry weather should continue till we see rain arriving on Friday night into Saturday.

Records for today: High 88 (1939) / Low 24 (1929) / Rain 3.19" (1894)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 54/40. There were 18 HDD’s The sun was out 52% of the possible time. The peak wind gust was 35 MPH out of the W.  The overnight low so far has been 46. And that is the current reading. For today the average H/L is 63/44 the record high of 85 was set in 1949 the record low of 26 was set in 1956. The record rain fall amount of 1.44” fell in 1914. The record snow fall of a trace was in 2012 and 1989. Last year the H/L was 67/39.

[Tom]

Hello from El Paso, TX!  I had written a post yesterday morning but got side tracked as I got busy with checking out of our AirBNB....so here it was:

"Hello from Abilene, TX as I decided to leave Dallas yesterday to cut back on the hours driving to El Paso, TX.  I didn't want to do another long drive (9-10 hours) but instead it'll be a shorter 6.5 hour drive.  The weather looks warm with temps in the mid/upper 80's along with sunny skies."

 

 

[westMJim]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hello from El Paso, TX!  I had written a post yesterday morning but got side tracked as I got busy with checking out of our AirBNB....so here it was:

Better late than never. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Once again Ottumwa  airport  leads state in yearly deficits.  However  ive recorded  about 22"   more than the airport. 

[Hawkeye]

The temp dipped a bit lower than expected this morning.  The CR airport hit 30º.  Here in the city we got close to freezing, especially near the ground.  My bird bath, which sits a few inches above the patio, had a thin layer of ice, but the water in the hummingbird feeder ant moat, a few feet above the bath, was ice free.

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Better late than never. 

Yes, indeed!  I'm looking forward to our final leg into the PHX valley later today.  Go Arizona Diamonbacks!

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The temp dipped a bit lower than expected this morning.  The CR airport hit 30º.  Here in the city we got close to freezing, especially near the ground.  My bird bath, which sits a few inches above the patio, had a thin layer of ice, but the water in the hummingbird feeder ant moat, a few feet above the bath, was ice free.

When was the last time you had a 1st Freeze in early OCT?

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

When was the last time you had a 1st Freeze in early OCT?

I don't remember any dates, but this is very typical for the first low 30s.  About every other year I have to protect my garden in early to mid October to keep the flowers going for the remaining hummingbirds.

[mlgamer]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

What was looking like a big rain event for the I-70 corridor a few days ago may end up being a big rain event for the I-90 corridor leaving me with .25 in or less. 

I can't even imagine the number of times we could have said this in recent years.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Watch for the Black Hills west of Rapid City, SD!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...STRONG FALL STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.A strong fall storm will develop over the Plains late Wednesday
into Thursday, bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds to
our area through early Friday. Precipitation will begin as rain,
with some thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As colder air wraps into the system late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, precipitation will change over to snow across
higher elevations of the Black Hills, where accumulating snow is
likely Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rain may mix with
or change over to snow across the foothills and portions of the
northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota plains later
Thursday into Friday, but confidence in precipitation types is
relatively low outside of the Black Hills. Precipitation will
taper off from west to east on Friday.

SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110000-
/O.NEW.KUNR.WS.A.0009.231012T1200Z-231013T1200Z/
Northern Black Hills-Central Black Hills-Wyoming Black Hills-
Including Lead, Deadwood, Cheyenne Crossing, Brownsville,
Terry Peak, Rochford, Nemo, Hill City, Rockerville, Hisega,
Pactola Reservoir, Custer, Jewel Cave, Sundance, and Four Corners
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In South Dakota, the Northern Black Hills and the
  Central Black Hills. In Wyoming, the Wyoming Black Hills.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means heavy snow, strong winds, freezing
precipitation, and cold temperatures are possible. Monitor NOAA
weather radio, local radio or television, or the Internet for
updates on this potentially dangerous storm. Take time to prepare
for severe winter conditions before the storm develops.

 

[jaster220]

@Iceresistance

Was just about to post that this is the first time seeing Hvy Snow on the hazards map this autumn

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

@Iceresistance

Was just about to post that this is the first time seeing Hvy Snow on the hazards map this autumn

I was planning the same thing too, but college...

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I can't even imagine the number of times we could have said this in recent years.

I’m with you. Seems like the last 2 winters, the lows have tended to go through Central Nebraska and hit Northern Nebraska and the Dakotas. I sure hope this doesn’t become a trend this winter. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is late today, but the ICON/GFS/GDPS/UK are actually quite good for my area.... showing totals from 1.8 to 3+ inches.  The improvement is mostly due to the first wave of showers and storms along the front being farther north.

[gabel23]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is late today, but the ICON/GFS/GDPS/UK are actually quite good for my area.... showing totals from 1.8 to 3+ inches.  The improvement is mostly due to the first wave of showers and storms along the front being farther north.

Started a thread. 

[hawkstwelve]

Latest Euro showing 2-3 inches of rainfall here by early Sunday morning. 

We are running about 7 inches behind normal for YTD rainfall so this is definitely welcomed! This system should also help bring soil moisture levels back up a little bit in some areas that need it.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest Euro showing 2-3 inches of rainfall here by early Sunday morning. 

We are running about 7 inches behind normal for YTD rainfall so this is definitely welcomed! This system should also help bring soil moisture levels back up a little bit in some areas that need it.

And there’s that dreaded dry slot rearing its ugly head. 

[OKwx2k4]

Should have went in an earlier post about the GFS and AO, but these explain it well. 

Not perfect, but none of the models are. When the AO dumped in August after dipping and sending a ridge-busting cooldown in July, it was a sort of tell I was talking about. It's a unique weather pattern.

 

[OKwx2k4]

We have a split trend in the longer ranges as we go through the rest of the month. 

The GFS is showing a strong rebound in temperatures across most of the country to close out the month. 

The Euro ensembles are trending towards another long-term cold shot or cold pooling up right over the central states. 

While I've complimented the GFS on its accuracy at longer ranges lately, will be interested to see if it fails miserably due to the double-dip feature in the AO pattern. 

(It's ensembles do go to a similar pattern as Euro.)

@Black Holemade a great point about the shallow nature of the airmasses. 

The source regions for cold are running highly above avg in temperature right now, which makes it really all the more incredible to see a three day cool blast in October.

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

We have a split trend in the longer ranges as we go through the rest of the month. 

The GFS is showing a strong rebound in temperatures across most of the country to close out the month. 

The Euro ensembles are trending towards another long-term cold shot or cold pooling up right over the central states. 

While I've complimented the GFS on its accuracy at longer ranges lately, will be interested to see if it fails miserably due to the double-dip feature in the AO pattern. 

(It's ensembles do go to a similar pattern as Euro.)

@Black Holemade a great point about the shallow nature of the airmasses. 

The source regions for cold are running highly above avg in temperature right now, which makes it really all the more incredible to see a three day cool blast in October.

 

Looks like we may see a bit of a phase 8 influence with the MJO for the second part of the month.  So I would go with a blended look for temps.  

[chescowxman]

Highs both today and tomorrow should be within a couple degrees of normal in the mid to upper 60's. Sunny skies for the next 3 days to close out the work week. Bout of course the weekend means rain chances. Greatest probability of rain will be Saturday into Saturday night with less chances on Sunday. Chilly on both days with highs only in the mid-50's.

Records for today: High 87 (1904) / Low 23 (1929) / Rain 2.62" (2002)

[BDT]

14 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

And there’s that dreaded dry slot rearing its ugly head. 

You are wellll above average for the year. You can sacrifice a dry slot for us eastern ne members to score some moisture....

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, BDT said:

You are wellll above average for the year. You can sacrifice a dry slot for us eastern ne members to score some moisture....

Not talking about anyone in particular. Just my region in previous winters. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/45 that 49 was the coldest high since May 2nd There was 0.03” of rain fall. The day had 18 HDD’s there was no sunshine. The highest wind gust was 20 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is now down to 63/44 the record high of 85 was set in 1928 the record low of 25 was set in 1906. The record rain fall amount of 1.49” fell in 1912 there have been several years with a trace of snow fall. Last year the H/L was 75/42 and there was 0.59” of rain fall.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like we may see a bit of a phase 8 influence with the MJO for the second part of the month.  So I would go with a blended look for temps.  

Still a pretty low amplitude phase as well. Would expect these to increase in amplitude as we go forward.

[MIKEKC]

Hey Hey...winter is near, or is it?

Here in KC, it's been a rough weather pattern during the growing season. Very dry April/May/June, wet period between July 4th and August 10th, 10-12 inches of rain. That saved us from a really bad drought. Since the middle of August, back to mostly dry. We went down to a DO headline for our area after the wet mid summer, now we are back to a D1. WE NEED RAIN! The northern side of the city received a line of storms last night, putting down .25-.50...not bad. The next storm looks to mostly miss KC. We'll enjoy mid 80's today and likely 80 tomorrow before some true fall air arrives this weekend. 

[Tom]

Hello from Fountain Hills, AZ!  It was a LONG 9 day road trip with nearly 2,500 miles of driving across the country.  I loved exploring both Arkansas and Texas as the southern states have a different style of living.  It sure is a different culture down south and lets not forget the amazing BBQ food!  @Andie I went to Ten50 BBQ in Dallas for some late night brisket and ribs on Friday night and the place was still busy at 8:00pm.  Hands down the best BBQ I've eaten.

As I drove into the "Valley of the Sun", I could tell right away the impacts of the brutal Summer Heat that immersed the region.  Lot's of cacti and palms were torched.  I've never seen anything like it before as the cacti looked like they were eaten from the bottom up as it appeared to me that animals were in desperation to get some moisture from the inside?  We need to see some troughs to start targeting the area as we get deeper into the Autumn/Winter.  

Meantime, I need to settle in and will try and post some vids and pics from my trip either today or tomorrow.  

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Hello from Fountain Hills, AZ

Is Fountain Hills the town where you are going to live?

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Hey Hey...winter is near, or is it?

Here in KC, it's been a rough weather pattern during the growing season. Very dry April/May/June, wet period between July 4th and August 10th, 10-12 inches of rain. That saved us from a really bad drought. Since the middle of August, back to mostly dry. We went down to a DO headline for our area after the wet mid summer, now we are back to a D1. WE NEED RAIN! The northern side of the city received a line of storms last night, putting down .25-.50...not bad. The next storm looks to mostly miss KC. We'll enjoy mid 80's today and likely 80 tomorrow before some true fall air arrives this weekend. 

Looks like it will be a warm and windy evening tomorrow (albeit dry) for the Chiefs/ Broncos Thursday night game. I am bringing both of my sons down to their first Chiefs’ game, it should be a fun evening for us at Arrowhead!

Hopefully some good rains will roll in after the game for the KC area.

[Stormy]

Had quite the little thunderstorm with quite a bit of hail here a little over an hour ago. The largest stone I measured was 1.50" in diameter. Most were only 1/2" dia. or less though quite a few were around 1" and round with some flatter stones. I sadly wasn't at home at the time, but drove through some of it. A few spots had the ground almost covered. The earlier cells today only amounted to a tenth of an inch here, and last storms about 0.40". Total so far 0.48", but wouldn't be surprised it'd be half inch since there was no hail in the gauges, which means it probably bounced out and likely would have added to the total! That's a good start and hopefully I get a lot more rain the next few days. 

[Stormy]

I haven't read any of October thread yet so I have quite a bit of catching up to do sometime.

[Stormy]

Looks like @Hawkeye I should be getting some nice training storms. 

[Andie]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Hello from Fountain Hills, AZ!  It was a LONG 9 day road trip with nearly 2,500 miles of driving across the country.  I loved exploring both Arkansas and Texas as the southern states have a different style of living.  It sure is a different culture down south and lets not forget the amazing BBQ food!  @Andie I went to Ten50 BBQ in Dallas for some late night brisket and ribs on Friday night and the place was still busy at 8:00pm.  Hands down the best BBQ I've eaten.

As I drove into the "Valley of the Sun", I could tell right away the impacts of the brutal Summer Heat that immersed the region.  Lot's of cacti and palms were torched.  I've never seen anything like it before as the cacti looked like they were eaten from the bottom up as it appeared to me that animals were in desperation to get some moisture from the inside?  We need to see some troughs to start targeting the area as we get deeper into the Autumn/Winter.  

Meantime, I need to settle in and will try and post some vids and pics from my trip either today or tomorrow.  

It’s sad to hear of the ravaged cactus. That means the wildlife suffered tremendously.   I have family in Tucson and they took it one day at a time. Rough summer. 
I’m praying for rain in Texas and Az.  Both need it!  Bad.  
We’re at a beautiful 68*. No rain in sight however for a week.  Hoping for a change with that.  

[Tom]

7 hours ago, westMJim said:

Is Fountain Hills the town where you are going to live?

Yes, for the time being it'll be home base...

[Clinton]

Models and teleconnections showing a nice cold airmass in the middle of the country toward the end of the month and November.  EPO and WPO both shown to go negative and stay there and a phase 8 MJO is cold for the northern half of the sub in Nov.

Should the JMA be correct and the MJO stay in phase 1, we would combine cold with a wet pattern.

[Stormy]

As feared, the overnight storms all stayed just north and east of here.    Models lately had been showing that, but was hoping they would be wrong. Rained only a few hundredth overnight.