October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cloud]

October related note: Solar eclipse on Oct 14. Annular at Central America. Last great eclipse was Aug 2017. I think most of us remembered that one, especially in OR. 
 

Eugene is in the path but we’ll probably be covered in clouds for this one. 

[MossMan]

.02” so far on the day. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.02” so far on the day. 

Barely got the pavement damp here.  FEMA has been contacted and we will rebuild.

I dropped fall fertilizer on the lawn last night thinking we would get more than "damp pavement" so I'm now out watering it in so the doggo can go out in the yard again.

 

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12 days... that sucks man.   I have had it 3 times now and it seems to go on forever.    Glad to hear you are improving.  

I've never had it. travel for work 30% the time, go to concerts, sporting events, etc haven't done anything preventative in over a year and a half other than staying up to date on the vax and boosters. I don't know how people just act like it doesn't exist and keep on gettin it.  I think there is a small subset of the population that do not get it.  My mother and I are only people in the world I personally know who have not had it out of all my colleagues, friends, whoever and she is almost 3000 miles away on the other side of the continent. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Interestingly, most of the 3+ year niñas followed strong/super niños.

This one is backwards in that respect. The only match to this progression is 1954/55 -1956/57.

Super niño followed 1957/58, but uniquely, did not recoil back into La Niña afterwards.

In fact, the next 13 years only saw 1 weak La Niña, with 6 El Niños in the same span.

we're kinda in unchartered territory

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

If you are referencing water off our coast... its impact on our local weather is really only a warm season thing.

I just like the overall cooling trend.

[TT-SEA]

58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've never had it. travel for work 30% the time, go to concerts, sporting events, etc haven't done anything preventative in over a year and a half other than staying up to date on the vax and boosters. I don't know how people just act like it doesn't exist and keep on gettin it.  I think there is a small subset of the population that do not get it.  My mother and I are only people in the world I personally know who have not had it out of all my colleagues, friends, whoever and she is almost 3000 miles away on the other side of the continent. 

My parents and my son are on that list.   My son did nothing to protect himself and was surrounded by people who were actively sick numerous times in 2021 and 2022 and came out unscathed    Also my wife's dad seems to be totally immune.  

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The water in the ENSO region has been holding steady for months... just slight changes in both directions on that 7-day change map.

Here is the actual SSTA map:

 

 

Interesting takes on the SSTs 

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

What changes are u referring to here?

General cooling trend.  nothing specific

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

Interesting takes on the SSTs 

I love Eric's updates... he is doing them daily now.

For some reason though he thinks the water right off our coast actually controls the jet stream.   I don't get it.  

[Snownerd3000]

I met a gal that works for Nutrien while in Maui in May.  I told her I watched his YT videos and she got a kick out of it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a gorgeous 69/40 yesterday here. Morning fog then mostly sunny with some scenic high clouds moving in toward evening.

Low of 48 this morning. Currently mostly cloudy and 52 with some drizzle in spots. Looking forward to another soaking today before we go back to our default ridging. Although it’s nice to have some light at the end of the tunnel for that already.

[Deweydog]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love Eric's updates... he is doing them daily now.

For some reason though he thinks the water right off our coast actually controls the jet stream.   I don't get it.  

Makes it sound like I could fill a kiddie pool with lukewarm water and deflect the jet to my liking. The power of preferences!

I do like the fact he seemed on board with the CDFBAWUFBACD index for the first half of the month give/take.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Makes it sound like I could fill a kiddie pool with lukewarm water and deflect the jet to my liking. The power of preferences!

I do like the fact he seemed on board with the CDFBAWUFBACD index for the first half of the month give/take.

I don’t know why but my mind went to jetsking in a pool when I read your post. 

[Deweydog]

Hey J-Dawg, we’re practically neighbors as of yesterday! 

[RentonHill]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey J-Dawg, we’re practically neighbors as of yesterday! 

are the new digs a decent upgrade??

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

are the new digs a decent upgrade??

Eh, not at the moment. It’s a long a** story but we’ll be at chateau de mother in law until probably April or May until the new place is complete.  We break ground next week. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If October does end up dry I may try to squeeze in one more river float. Probably won't do the Willamette again, but might do the McKenzie... Or Clackamas...

You should try the Sandy!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

[ShawniganLake]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m so done with La Niña. 3 straight years (and 5/7yrs) of La Niña is enough.

Good riddance. It’s El Niño time.  

Hoping for a coast to coast blow torch type.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

24 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

Looks like a lower 48 trough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

Certainly not to early for snow in parts of Central Oregon. 

[Phishy Wx]

lol 384h GFS maps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

My parents and my son are on that list.   My son did nothing to protect himself and was surrounded by people who were actively sick numerous times in 2021 and 2022 and came out unscathed    Also my wife's dad seems to be totally immune.  

It's also possible your son being young and healthy (I am assuming.), was just asymptomatic. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

lol 384h GFS maps

dont pretend like you're too good for them. they may be your only hope this season. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I'd predict October ends up near normal on temps and near to slightly below normal with precip...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I just like the overall cooling trend.

As much flack as people are giving you about noticing there has been some cooling in the ENSO regions. There is modeled to be some slight cooling, before the 3.4 region rebounds to about +1.5-1.7 during November and December. At this point I don't see an ONI peaking above 1.5-1.6, so this will be a moderate on the verge of strong Nino, but definitely not a "SUPER" Nino. Interestingly some guidance drops ENSO into near Nina territory by next summer. Would be surprising, but definitely possible. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Some fall color is starting to show in the Harrison Lake area.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

42 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Looks like a lower 48 trough. 

 

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Certainly not to early for snow in parts of Central Oregon. 

The 12z GEFS shows a blocking signal up in Alaska in the long range. Still early though for any meaningful Arctic air to make its way down here. But it’s a start.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

It would be surprising if we didn’t see a decent continental airmass at some point this month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

It was looking like PDX had a good shot at their first sub-60 high of the season today, but the rain drizzle is moving in just a little too late. Up to 61 there now. To bad.

Still a chance here with the temp holding at 59.

[ShawniganLake]

Just checking September stats for shawnigan Lake.  Temp was 0.5F above average and rainfall 78% of normal.  So just a little on the warm and dry side of things

[TigerWoodsLibido]

63F and getting cloudy.

[Front Ranger]

10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate.

(However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

2013-14 and 2016-17 were pretty good winters for cold air in the PNW, and even 2017-18 was far from a dud.

Much worse 5 year stretches out there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 0.25" and still coming down. Looks like this little event is going to overperform IMBY.

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Cloud said:

October related note: Solar eclipse on Oct 14. Annular at Central America. Last great eclipse was Aug 2017. I think most of us remembered that one, especially in OR. 
 

Eugene is in the path but we’ll probably be covered in clouds for this one. 

I knew one was coming up in April 2024, but had no idea about this one. Interesting!

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I love Eric's updates... he is doing them daily now.

For some reason though he thinks the water right off our coast actually controls the jet stream.   I don't get it.  

Yeah that bugs me too. He’s such a good presenter/communicator, sucks that his message is undermined by a misunderstanding of ocean-atmosphere coupling. 

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

I knew one was coming up in April 2024, but had no idea about this one. Interesting!

Yeah that bugs me too. He’s such a good presenter/communicator, sucks that his message is undermined by a misunderstanding of ocean-atmosphere coupling. 

I didn’t know about it either until my wife asked me last night if I knew about it in a couple weeks.  Naturally my response was “did you meant a lunar eclipse?” — since her side of the family traditionally follows the lunar calendar. “no! Solar!” She says — she knows I’m into these kinda stuff, so I had to do a bit of research

[the_convergence_zone]

Squeezed out 0.01". I may get some more from a convergence zone this afternoon. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's also possible your son being young and healthy (I am assuming.), was just asymptomatic. 

For me it was *much* worse the second time I got it, which I still don’t understand.

Contracted it right at the beginning in April 2020, when basically the entire NE US seaboard was infected, and it was nothing. Just a dry cough and brief low grade fever, like I was dehydrated.

Then caught it again in April this year. Even with 3 jabs and the prior infection, this time it fucking LEVELED me. Worst sore throat imaginable, awful body pains, and chills so bad my teeth were chattering uncontrollably. No respiratory symptoms, but I never get those when sick anyway.

Don’t know if it was viral load, or if I was just more sensitive to that omicron variant. Whatever the reason, I don’t want to go through that again if I can avoid it.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Squeezed out 0.01". I may get some more from a convergence zone this afternoon. 

Yea, trajectory of this system is not good for C. and N. Sounds. Pretty much shadowed out.