October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

12 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

A lot of whites on this forum.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Record highs in Central Oregon yesterday. Culver Josh probably had a beer on the deck.

A beer or 10.

[Front Ranger]

11 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like our Nino February is getting off to an early start.

We might as well embrace it. It's going to be an epic winter for Phil, terrible for most of the PNW, and I'll probably have one big early season event and a March blizzard, but the rest of the winter will suck.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like we will definitely see a pattern change by next week. Still not cold enough for lowland snow but it will be much colder than we have been used to

 

https://youtu.be/_wl-m2ENtg8?si=NypB3OOwZVrwQeMp

[iFred]

59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

We might as well embrace it. It's going to be an epic winter for Phil, terrible for most of the PNW, and I'll probably have one big early season event and a March blizzard, but the rest of the winter will suck.

"We"
"Location: Denver, CO"

 

That's some Phil-class shit right there.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No, needs another acronym or two.

No, to do this right would be posting an image, then adding no real context to it.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

New Euro is sexy.... two cold lobes hit the region

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is quite wet for Oregon...

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, iFred said:

"We"
"Location: Denver, CO"

 

That's some Phil-class right there.

I specifically laid out different locations and how they related to the comment, sir.

Low expectations aren't the end of the world or this forum.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

We might as well embrace it. It's going to be an epic winter for Phil, terrible for most of the PNW, and I'll probably have one big early season event and a March blizzard, but the rest of the winter will suck.

I could see it being decent in CO.

There's also a non-zero chance that I'll be moving there before the end of winter, so that's maybe just wishful thinking and we'll have to settle for sharing our March blizzard misery together.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I specifically laid out different locations and how they related to the comment, sir.

Low expectations aren't the end of the world or this forum.

Snow hype is mandatory here. Repent, sinner!

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still dense fog here in Salem, we could still pop a 70 if it clears off in the next few hours. 

Soooo close to pea soup lunch season.

[Omegaraptor]

Corvallis has cleared out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Light rain and 57.7°F. Another overcast day in paradise.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I could see it being decent in CO.

There's also a non-zero chance that I'll be moving there before the end of winter, so that's maybe just wishful thinking and we'll have to settle for sharing our March blizzard misery together.

Yeah, honestly I'd say 50% chance it ends up decent here as far as snow totals. 2018-19 was ok, 2015-16 outstanding, and 2014-15 and 2009-10 had their moments. 

But there also is a tendency for moderate/strong El Ninos to be quite front and/or backloaded here, with not a lot in the middle. 2002-03, 1997-98, 1991-92, and 1957-58 all fit that mold to varying degrees. There is also a higher than average chance of sustained winter torching with healthy El Ninos, as seen in 2015-16, 2002-03, 1997-98, 1991-92, and 1957-58.

Overall, I really think Phil's area has the best odds of a big winter this year.

Nice, where are you looking at moving to?

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, honestly I'd say 50% chance it ends up decent here as far as snow totals. 2018-19 was ok, 2015-16 outstanding, and 2014-15 and 2009-10 had their moments. 

But there also is a tendency for moderate/strong El Ninos to be quite front and/or backloaded here, with not a lot in the middle. 2002-03, 1997-98, 1991-92, and 1957-58 all fit that mold to varying degrees. There is also a higher than average chance of sustained winter torching with healthy El Ninos, as seen in 2015-16, 2002-03, 1997-98, 1991-92, and 1957-58.

Overall, I really think Phil's area has the best odds of a big winter this year.

Nice, where are you looking at moving to?

Looking at the northern part of Colorado Springs right now, which is still a good bit cheaper than the Denver metro. Possibly the Monument area as well, which just so happens to be one of the snowier parts of the Front Range. Moving date would be more towards February but the housing search has begun.

[Christensen87]

19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Corvallis has cleared out.

I'll be visiting Corvallis next weekend with some friends who went to OSU. Should be fun, hope the weather turns out OK. Go Beavs! 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 74 in North Bend now... probably last 70s of the year.

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking at the northern part of Colorado Springs right now, which is still a good bit cheaper than the Denver metro. Possibly the Monument area as well, which just so happens to be one of the snowier parts of the Front Range. Moving date would be more towards February but the housing search has begun.

Ah, yeah Monument is nice. Almost 2000' higher than Denver metro, and that extra elevation also helps with cold front upslope or anytime there is northerly flow. 100"+ a winter is common.

Crappy commute to Denver, but not bad to Colorado Springs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

New Euro is sexy.... two cold lobes hit the region

I love cold LOBES.

[TT-SEA]

Make that 75. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Soooo close to pea soup lunch season.

Totally clear now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some 70s in the Oregon Cascades, even low 80s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is interesting... An airmass cold enough to produce snow here, though not enough moisture on this run (At this point.).

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is interesting... An airmass cold enough to produce snow here, though not enough moisture on this run (At this point.).

 

Euro 12Z was coldest we have seen for the area. Hopefully it is a trend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Euro 12Z was coldest we have seen for the area. Hopefully it is a trend.

I've never had snow in October, would love to see it. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've never had snow in October, would love to see it. 

The lobe direction is favorable for marginal flakes to fall IMBY. End of next week looks like it could happen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The lobe direction is favorable for marginal flakes to fall IMBY. End of next week looks like it could happen. 

Would be an incredible early season BLESSING.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be an incredible early season BLESSING.

Many days left for a rug pull. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Many days left for a rug pull. 

Absolutely. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z GFS on board with first lobe

[Chewbacca Defense]

Another drippy day up here, been drizzling off and on most of the day, with .06" in the rain gauge.  49/61 so far for the temp.

I'll be curious to see what next week brings. 

[T-Town]

Looked like a mid-day marine push here today. The clouds seem to be burning back now. Unusual. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That first LOBE brings some snow to Central Oregon. Would be quite a switch to have snow after highs in the mid-80s this week. Late October snow in Central Oregon is not super unusual.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That first LOBE brings some snow to Central Oregon. Would be quite a switch to have snow after highs in the mid-80s this week. Late October snow in Central Oregon is not super unusual.

Also looks to be onboard with lobe #2. Time to model watch. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Also looks to be onboard with lobe #2. Time to model watch. 

A month later this would be exciting.
 

[Doinko]

Just saw the 12z Euro, looks great

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The lobe direction is favorable for marginal flakes to fall IMBY. End of next week looks like it could happen. 

Timing looks very similar to 1991.  We had 3” of snow and a 34/29 day on October 28th that year. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hope this isn't a classic nino cold load early then shitt after that.