November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

Winter 2010/11 was the king of Charlie Brown moments across the country. I’ll NEVER forgive the atrocity that was the Boxing Day (non)blizzard.

48hrs out Euro and GFS were printing out 2+ft of snow and 60mph winds with temps in the middle teens here. The only model against it was the f**king 12km NAM.

And sure enough, the next morning I wake up and all models have caved and now depict a dusting. I was so pissed and heartbroken I can still feel the emotion today. And to top it off both VA Beach/NE NC and NYC/New England got hammered with a blizzard. Gapped us entirely.  

Of course we still got the dry 60+mph wind. Dry/snowless wind never fails here. As reliable as the sun coming up.

[Cold Snap]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It felt flukey to me from the start. Almost bought into the hype, but the 00z runs saved me.

Yeah I had that same feeling as well. Kind of why I didn’t really let myself get that excited about this.

[RentonHill]

24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize.  We should know better.  We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football.

Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen.  Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations.

But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised.

We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out.

I mean, I’m not really surprised. I’m just pissed. When the EPS looks like this at day 9 I feel like we should get something that looks like that even if it ain’t a blast. Maybe I’m just greedy (I am). But the complete flip sucks. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Unchanged. And 2 options if the steroid injection doesn’t work. Option one is to shave off the part of the disc that protruding and burn it to close the wound (and burn the local nerves so I won’t feel pain there). It’s all arthroscopic and basically outpatient.

Option two is something I had never heard of before. Apparently I’m a candidate for an “artificial disc”, but that is more invasive and I doubt my insurance will cover that. Don’t want ti mess with that.

My back started hurting after reading this.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public.

I have. Lol. Tongue in cheek of course, obv I’m not being 100% serious. Mass death and suffering isn’t worth it. But can’t deny there would be upsides for us weather nerds if it happened.  

Plus I’m sure obesity rates would go down. Almost everything has an upside, even if minuscule. Right?

[RentonHill]

I’m ready to be hurt again

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugly 

[iFred]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public.

“We need a bit of WWIII action as that is the only way we are going to be able to both fight inflation and get cold winters back. Nuclear ejecta is far more potent as a sunlight blocker than anything else we have and we won’t have to rely on a -PDO.”

- Cliff Mass, probably.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I mean, I’m not really surprised. I’m just pissed. When the EPS looks like this at day 9 I feel like we should get something that looks like that even if it ain’t a blast. Maybe I’m just greedy (I am). But the complete flip sucks. 

I’ve noticed last minute rug pulls often happen in the direction of ENSO climatology. And we’re definitely not in La Niña anymore.

Though tbh this one surprised me, blocking signal just collapsed into a progressive snoozefest.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve noticed last minute rug pulls often happen in the direction of ENSO climatology. And we’re definitely not in La Niña anymore.

Though tbh this one surprised me, blocking signal just collapsed into a progressive snoozefest.

The pattern isn't that much different except the STJ is beefed up, as you'd expect with a strong +ENSO. Ends up making things more zonal south of 50°N and Arctic air in Canada ejects east just too early.

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The newer artificial disc's are the next generation ones and are much longer lasting than the first generation ones.  They often didn't last more than 10 years and would have to be taken out and a fusion procedure would be done.

My fusion was minimally invasive, 4 small incisions that healed quickly. And I spent only 1 night in the hospital. It's going through the muscles that causes a lot of discomfort and stiffness.

If I had the option of an artificial disc, I would have done that.  And probably I could have had that done if I had more time to ask other surgeons, but due to my dropfoot, I didn't have time to waste.

Not an easy choice, and I guess if the simpler surgery doesn't work, the artificial disc would be an alternative.  My concern with your first option would be that, even if you didn't feel pain, that you would still have numbness because the nerve is still being compressed.   That's the question I would ask of my surgeon.  And of course 2nd opinions are important too.

Thanks, this is good information.

Doc doesn’t recommend fusion for me because I’m relatively young and don’t have “degenerative” loss of disc height. This was apparently an acute injury that compounded on itself due to my ignorance of what was actually going on (also have scar tissue from multiple facet ligament tears that likely occurred with the original injury). I’ve never had back problems before so this is all new to me. And a major wake up call.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately the pattern ends up busting in the worst most boring possible way. Well at least we pull off the October/November torch combo. 

[MossMan]

Here is The Fuzz…It clears everything up! 

[seattleweatherguy]

Windstorm gone too with the model flip?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

For what it is worth.. 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Here is The Fuzz…It clears everything up! 

Super fuzz 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The family from Indiana is moving back here to Springfield so my family is stuck here. None of the rest of them like snow and cold sadly.

Glad you are staying put!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

We haven't lost everyone

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We haven't lost everyone

Yay we have the CFS…

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Yay we have the CFS…

Desperate times...

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Desperate times...

Indeed

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Pinatubo was crazy for my family back home. I wasn't born until 6 years later but both my parents had to deal with the wet raining ash when a typhoon decided to join a big VEI-6 eruption for a double slice of hell. So the ash that was dispersed to the ocean got collected and brought all back to rain on Luzon. The pyroclastic flows from that eruption were scary textbook material. I wonder if I could ever head home and buy Pinatubo ashes for my garden lol 

I watched some videos on the Pinatubo eruption and it was pretty crazy. The Saint Helens eruption was big but Pinatubo was like ten times larger just to put it into perspective. 

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Winter 2010/11 was the king of Charlie Brown moments across the country. I’ll NEVER forgive the atrocity that was the Boxing Day (non)blizzard.

48hrs out Euro and GFS were printing out 2+ft of snow and 60mph winds with temps in the middle teens here. The only model against it was the f**king 12km NAM.

And sure enough, the next morning I wake up and all models have caved and now depict a dusting. I was so pissed and heartbroken I can still feel the emotion today. And to top it off both VA Beach/NE NC and NYC/New England got hammered with a blizzard. Gapped us entirely.  

Of course we still got the dry 60+mph wind. Dry/snowless wind never fails here. As reliable as the sun coming up.

There was that time in January 2020 the models showed 1950/1969 level stuff a week out and it ended up being a bunch of 40 degree drizzle…

[Frontal Snowsquall]

58 minutes ago, Phil said:

I remember this forum had a major meltdown in January 2011, I think models snatched away 3-4 feet of lowland snow inside 3-4 days.

We need Yellowstone to pop off a VEI8. And then Toba and Krakatoa to add to it.

@TT-SEA always gets upset at me when I say this, but we all know it’s the truth.

Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are just a natural part of life here on Earth whether we like it or not. We just gotta be prepared as best as we can if they occur. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

For what it is worth.. 

The 12z GEM also showed Alaskan blocking at day 10. We are still over a week out. Game is not over yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The family from Indiana is moving back here to Springfield so my family is stuck here. None of the rest of them like snow and cold sadly.

I bet they regularly have snow on the ground in mid winter up in Indiana.. it's much shorter lived just a bit to the south of them.

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thanks, this is good information.

Doc doesn’t recommend fusion for me because I’m relatively young and don’t have “degenerative” loss of disc height. This was apparently an acute injury that compounded on itself due to my ignorance of what was actually going on (also have scar tissue from multiple facet ligament tears that likely occurred with the original injury). I’ve never had back problems before so this is all new to me. And a major wake up call.

I know it probably sounds oversimplified at this stage of the game but do you have a good chiropractor? My sciatica flares like a mofo at times and the place I go does miraculous work. I was convinced about eight years ago right now (wasn’t a pleasant Thanksgiving) that I was on a one way track toward the OR but they righted the ship. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Has anyone been counting how many times winter has been canceled this year? Add 1 to it.

 

 

Pretty unfortunate that all we have now, is the CFS......

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For those expectations a huge, climate changing eruption from Iceland, think again.  Wont happen.  I've been following Iceland volcanic activity for years, and this activity won't end up with  a massive explosion.

First, it's the wrong kind of magma.  This is the kind of magma that produces effusive, fissure eruptions like the last 3 eruptions have since 2021 in the same region.

There is a decreasing chance that the eruption could start offshore, where the sudden heating of water from magma interaction could produce some (relatively) small explosions.  It could be devastating for that area, but nothing that would produce a massive eruption.  At the very most a VEI 2, and even that is very unlikely.

For official information from actual vulcanologists that know this area, here is the official web site with the latest information.

https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night

Though there is some good info on X and YouTube, there is also a lot of crap from doomsday people who know nothing about volcanoes and just like to get a lot of clicks.

Seems like the most newsworthy aspect of the Iceland thing is the activity that is happening in the middle of a town, which is certainly noteworthy/newsworthy, but on the scale of volcanic activity in general, its a "meh"

[Snownerd3000]

Awaiting the drunk uncle to bring the party back 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public.

One downside if Yellowstone popped off is that we would lose a source for amazing "stupid tourist"/"Darwin Award nominee" videos and pictures.

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There was that time in January 2020 the models showed 1950/1969 level stuff a week out and it ended up being a bunch of 40 degree drizzle…

Wasn’t 1950 or 69 but was still an awesome week! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

CPC still running with a cold outlook

 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t 1950 or 69 but was still an awesome week! 

KFalls had a pretty snowy week out of that one, but the winter was largely a dud if you count the following 2 months.

I had 18.5" from 1/9 to 1/16, locked horns with some 1 week snows from 2017 and 2012.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS!

[Phishy Wx]

probably still far enough out where things can reverse.  that's the positive

Seems we have a lot against us in this currently Strong +ENSO event.

[fubario]

17 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

One downside if Yellowstone popped off is that we would lose a source for amazing "stupid tourist"/"Darwin Award nominee" videos and pictures.

Pretty sure there's only "one downside" if Yellowstone pops off. lol

[SouthHillFrosty]

We are cooked if we are down to the CFS. See y'all at the next la nina

Edited November 13, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Timmy Supercell]

22 minutes ago, fubario said:

Pretty sure there's only "one downside" if Yellowstone pops off. lol

There's other equally powerful ones, Yellowstone gets too much attention.