November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oregon with a business trip to sunny Phoenix. Went well.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

South valley is getting pounded right now.

Looks like the heaviest band is now lifting north of Corvallis?    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the heaviest band is now lifting north of Corvallis?    

Might be an outside chance at a dry slot in the 3rd but most likely gonna rain all game.

Lots of moisture in this banding lifting north. Overperforming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the heaviest band is now lifting north of Corvallis?    

Can’t really see what’s down in lane county though. Oregons second largest city has essentially no radar coverage. 

[Mercurial]

FCA/Kalispell has measured 2.41" precip (almost entirely rain), vs 0.81" avg.  Moisture is only good if it falls as snow or arrives during fire season.  Make it stop. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Might as well take a stab at Portland's one-day rain record. It is kind of funny that despite our rainy reputation PDX's one-day rain record of 2.69" is among the lowest of any major US city airport (IIRC, only LAS is lower). December 2015 managed a 2.67" day which is #2 all time at PDX.

That record has always felt like super low hanging fruit. Especially considering the downtown record is 6.68".

 

[FroYoBro]

WEATHER SPORTS!

[RentonHill]

56 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oregon with a business trip to sunny Phoenix. Went well.

Even as a sun devil I’ve never actually cared for ASU football. 

[Snownerd3000]

https://twitter.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1725932894999507106?s=20

How does this effect the weather? 

[skywatcher]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Still hanging on in the Seattle area... screen shot from earlier today

Can't say the same down in the SE corner of King Co. Looking a lot like winter around these parts, foliage is pretty much gone now.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, skywatcher said:

Can't say the same down in the SE corner of King Co. Looking a lot like winter around these parts, foliage is pretty much gone now.

Yeah... getting pretty bare out here now too.     Particularly with the wind last weekend and the east wind the last couple of days. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 hours ago, MossMan said:

My kids are now 5 and almost 10…It’s starting to become the opposite now with them wanting to sleep in now as opposed to them being up half the night! I think for the first time in…Well…About 10 years that I feel like I’m getting caught up with sleep! 

That seems forever ago when I think about my 23 year old and 27 year old!  Biggest concern with the 23 year old is that he is getting to bed early enough to be safe to make his hour long commute for his 5am start time at work!  Lost a friend in an accident caused by a driver who fell asleep at the wheel, so I hammer on him pretty hard on the topic.

[skywatcher]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... getting pretty bare out here now too.     Particularly with the wind last weekend and the east wind the last couple of datys. 

Yep. It may just be perception bias while I've been swamped with things, but I think the hard freeze a few days ago got rid of the last of the leaves still to hanging on. Got all the leaves raked and out before that freeze hit and now everything is barren.

[TT-SEA]

Sure looks like the rain will be letting up in Corvallis during the second half.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, skywatcher said:

Yep. It may just be perception bias while I've been swamped with things, but I think the hard freeze a few days ago got rid of the last of the leaves still to hanging on. Got all the leaves raked and out before that freeze hit and now everything is barren.

It's not totally barren here but I did notice our cottonwoods dropping leaves fast once the sun came up after the last freeze here on Wednesday night.  

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sure looks like the rain will be letting up in Corvallis during the second half.

Maybe McMillan and Polk can catch a pass then. Yeesh. 

[snow_wizard]

The models are really hammering a fairly cold and dry scenario coming up now.  Lots of N to NE flow aloft with strong surface high pressure.

[GHweatherChris]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:41 PM, GHweatherChris said:

It is notable for us right now, our heat pump ain't pushing heat all of a sudden, we rent, through a property manager, so this could be interesting getting this resolved.

Update, won't be fixed until Tuesday at the earliest, thank goodness we have a couple warmer nights ahead.

[AbbyJr]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Ouch, really getting pushed back. Though January is when W1/displacement type SSW is favored in El Niño anyway. December would be quite early.

If there were to be a SSW this winter, do you think it would favour the PNW or the east for the arctic air?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

https://twitter.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1725932894999507106?s=20

How does this effect the weather? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Based on some of the 12z model guidance there is a tiny glimmer of hope after Day 6-7 as arctic air spills southward from Canada. Could it dig back towards eastern Washington? Maybe. If the ridge backs off a bit to the west, or tilts more sharply than the chances of that occurring are a bit higher. It's not impossible. It wouldn't be in time for a White Turkey, so if you're dreaming of one, sorry. Well, I am kind of sorry. BUT yeah. Okay.

00z GFS in 12 minutes

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

If there were to be a SSW this winter, do you think it would favour the PNW or the east for the arctic air?

I have no clue. But without a SSW or some freakish RWB, there’d be nothing to prevent the El Niño base state from dominating the pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend) Loops too slow, or?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Now let's see how this ridge builds.

[LowerGarfield]

6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just took this pic of the camellia tree between my neighbors house and mine.  

 

Nice photo.

Question to all of you: if trees start to change color/lose their leaves but then a warm pattern sets up, would the tree grow new leaves, would the color change on the current leaves, or still wait a certain amount of time until regrowing?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Trees are pretty bare here. Storm a week ago did a good job of stripping them.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend) Nope. Ridge is too close. Probably end up with a modest Columbia Basin cold pool and east winds though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[TT-SEA]

10 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Y’all should go onto Bovada and lay down some $ on the doggies over the Beavs for tonight. I think they squeak out a win in what could be a game that will get progressively rainier towards the end.

 

10 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Smart money is on the BEAVS!

 

Good call by Tiger!    Not so much by Andrew.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Phishy Wx]

full of turds...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-"crap" 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[MossMan]

Sorry about your Beavers, Andrew.

Was a nice and mild evening in Everett for my daughters soccer tournament.

Getting a bit breezy back here at home. 50 degrees currently.

55/37 on the day. 
Lots of brightness on this dark evening. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Interestingly... most of the rain on that 10-day map will have already happened by early tomorrow morning.