November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

This has felt like a fairly chilly November and yet Sea-Tac is running 4 F above November 2022. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be an epic fake cold setup on the 18z GFS. 

I can't contain myself

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

This has felt like a fairly chilly November and yet Sea-Tac is running 4 F above November 2022. 

 

The fake cold was so fake it wasn't even cold

[Deweydog]

RETROGRESSION.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

RETROGRESSION.

December 20-January 15th is our window. If we hit we are going to hit HARD.

[Slushy Inch]

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

This has felt like a fairly chilly November and yet Sea-Tac is running 4 F above November 2022. 

 

Tough to compete with the coldest November in 37 years.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Imagine if all the precipitation we received was snow. The PNW from the Coast to the Cascades would be the snowiest place in the USA.  

 

If dry NW wind fell as snow we’d average 5,000”/yr. My lips are already cracked and bleeding.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So much for Canada torching on this run. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our number to beat in terms of snowfall is 3.5" from the lost cause which was the 2014-15 winter. Had 1/2" the day after Thanksgiving, 2" on Christmas Eve, and 1" on April 15th. 

In that case I assume you’re technically running behind 14/15.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

In that case I assume you’re technically running behind 14/15. 

I believe that snow fell on the 28th, so not until tomorrow.

[Slushy Inch]

Not much lowland snow but quite the storm train at the end.

[Phil]

Dr. Roundy’s MJO/ER/100 Day LP-derived analog composite (which has been fairly accurate of late) projects a behemoth jet extension during the 3rd week of December.

Verbatim that would be a top-10 torch for Canada and the northern lower-48. Putin is going to score an epic start to winter.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s MJO/ER/100 Day LP-derived analog composite (which has been fairly accurate of late) projects a behemoth jet extension during the 3rd week of December.

Verbatim that would be a top-10 torch for Canada and the northern lower-48. Putin is going to score an epic start to winter.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

I'm sure that means a lot to him.

[TT-SEA]

For those familiar with Rattlesnake Lake... saw this video on FB (screenshot) below from this afternoon.  Its currently empty.   This is pretty normal though as they release water at this time of year from the Chester Morse Lake (a.k.a. Cedar Lake) above which is the main source of water for Seattle so it can be replenished again with rain and melting snow.   Rattlesnake Lake is only full when the reservoir above is full.   

Current view and then a pic of what it looks like in mid-summer.    Pretty interesting that it can be dumping rain at this time of year and the lake remains empty and then when its hot and sunny in the summer its totally full.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

For those familiar with Rattlesnake Lake... saw this video on FB (screenshot) below from this afternoon.  Its currently empty.   This is pretty normal though as they release water at this time of year from the Chester Morse Lake (a.k.a. Cedar Lake) above which is the main source of water for Seattle so it can be replenished again with rain and melting snow.   Rattlesnake Lake is only full when the reservoir above is full.   

Current view and then a pic of what it looks like in mid-summer.    Pretty interesting that it can be dumping rain at this time of year and the lake remains empty and then when its hot and sunny in the summer its totally full.  

 

That's typically what they do here in the PNW, they empty them at the end of summer so they can be used for flood control in winter and spring. 

Down here in the Willamette Basin we have a whole other problem going on, a judge ordered the corps to basically empty all the Willamette Basin reservoirs. The upshot of which being, essentially all the fish in these giants lakes were killed and because these lakes have never been completely drained, an insane amount of silt has washed into the South Santiam and Willamette Rivers quite possibly killing every fish in the river system, contaminating local wells, and making the water undrinkable in Lebanon. Big big issue down here right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43/23 at EUG today. Now we're talking! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

43/23 at EUG today. Now we're talking! 

41/25 here.  I was pretty surprised to see the fall in max temps today.  The Kent / Auburn Valley was socked in all day so I expect a lot more fog to end the cold snap here.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's typically what they do here in the PNW, they empty them at the end of summer so they can be used for flood control in winter and spring. 

Down here in the Willamette Basin we have a whole other problem going on, a judge ordered the corps to basically empty all the Willamette Basin reservoirs. The upshot of which being, essentially all the fish in these giants lakes were killed and because these lakes have never been completely drained, an insane amount of silt has washed into the South Santiam and Willamette Rivers quite possibly killing every fish in the river system, contaminating local wells, and making the water undrinkable in Lebanon. Big big issue down here right now. 

The judge sounds like an idiot.

[snow_wizard]

I must say I was surprised to see how many members on the EPS show some pretty serious low temps a bit down the road.

[TT-SEA]

Sunset in Seattle... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48/24 at SLE! 

[TT-SEA]

51/42 in North Bend today... best weather in the state!

[SnowySeeker50]

High of 37 today with the fog hanging around through the whole day. Down to 34 already 

[Winterdog]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

41/25 here.  I was pretty surprised to see the fall in max temps today.  The Kent / Auburn Valley was socked in all day so I expect a lot more fog to end the cold snap here.

I had exactly the same high and low here today.  Currently 34.  Working on freeze #21

[SilverFallsAndrew]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The judge sounds like an idiot.

Well it sounds like the theory is the increased flows are supposed to flush juvenile salmon through the system quicker. Not sure if the ones returning will be able to spawn now with all the silt. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm a little surprised to see the cooler temperatures at Crown Point. This normally means cooler temperatures in my area. As you can see, the temperature is much colder than it was yesterday at this time. 

[Cold Snap]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA pulled off a 28F last night. Impressive.

Also the temp it got down to IMBY this morning. It’s rare that SEA gets a cold as I do in a setup like this.

[LowerGarfield]

26F. It was really cool seeing the fog roll in over a span of 15 mins from west to east here in Pomeroy. Super thick now.

[FroYoBro]

First day that it stayed below 50 degrees here. High of 48, but another mild low of 37 with a breeze. 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

First day that it stayed below 50 degrees here. High of 48, but another mild low of 37 with a breeze. 

Same, the breeze hasn't allowed temps to get that cold aside from 28 once, though we did get to 31 today

[TacomaWx]

41/32 today…not really an inversion fan but atleast it feels like winter. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's typically what they do here in the PNW, they empty them at the end of summer so they can be used for flood control in winter and spring. 

Down here in the Willamette Basin we have a whole other problem going on, a judge ordered the corps to basically empty all the Willamette Basin reservoirs. The upshot of which being, essentially all the fish in these giants lakes were killed and because these lakes have never been completely drained, an insane amount of silt has washed into the South Santiam and Willamette Rivers quite possibly killing every fish in the river system, contaminating local wells, and making the water undrinkable in Lebanon. Big big issue down here right now. 

I remember when someone pissed in a reservoir around Portland, think this was 09 or 10 and everyone was shocked. Seems like child's play in comparison. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Visibility less than .1 of a mile by my house. Don’t see that often tbh. A lot of fog out there. 

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I'm a little surprised to see the cooler temperatures at Crown Point. This normally means cooler temperatures in my area. As you can see, the temperature is much colder than it was yesterday at this time. 

The east wind is colder than 24 hours ago in many places now.  Love seeing that.

[MossMan]

I think this was the first time ever in my lifetime that KSEA had a lower low temp than me. 

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The judge sounds like an idiot.

This ladies and gentlemen is why lobbyists aren't a good thing in most situations. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a very respectable 48/25 here today. Nice to see the gap wind affect finally kick in as the cold pool east of the mountains gets well established. Could even see the stratus in the Gorge today from the east metro.

Winds are slacking off again this evening, so should be another cold night. We’re getting on a good roll now.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a very respectable 48/25 here today. Nice to see the gap wind affect finally kick in as the cold pool east of the mountains gets well established. Could even see the stratus in the Gorge today from the east metro.

Winds are slacking off again this evening, so should be another cold night. We’re getting on a good roll now.

Hillsboro already down to freezing. 41 here, hopefully the breeze backs off.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hillsboro already down to freezing. 41 here, hopefully the breeze backs off.

You’re near the leeward side of the West Hills right? That area always seems to hold onto the pesky east wind for awhile. I think the downsloping terrain makes it easier to mix down to the surface out there.