January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Don't look back you say?? Today I'm enjoying my MLK holiday off and channeling the 70's with the strong S. stream lows and the deep deep snow they covered The Mitt with. I'm not the biggest winner with these storms but 2 feet of snow since last Monday is hard to complain about. @Tom's mountain vid inspired me.

 

 

 

[bud2380]

Euro has been consistent with a weak system Thursday into Friday.  

 

 

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Don't look back you say?? Today I'm enjoying my MLK holiday off and channeling the 70's with the strong S. stream lows and the deep deep snow they covered The Mitt with. I'm not the biggest winner with these storms but 2 feet of snow since last Monday is hard to complain about. @Tom's mountain vid inspired me.

 

 

 

 

That’s what it’s all about!  Enjoy the winter wonderland my friend!  Keep it going, right?

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro has been consistent with a weak system Thursday into Friday.  

 

 

I’ve had a keen eye on this one to dig a bit more…the ICON sniffed this one out a lot earlier than the others.  Let’s see if it can develop into something larger.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’ve had a keen eye on this one to dig a bit more…the ICON sniffed this one out a lot earlier than the others.  Let’s see if it can develop into something larger.

I'm hoping the flow can be favorable enough to send some LES my way.  Overall parameters look good... just need the low level flow to cooperate.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm hoping the flow can be favorable enough to send some LES my way.  Overall parameters look good... just need the low level flow to cooperate.

That to has caught my eye..NW IN is in a good spot for this as the HP has more of a N/S flow instead of a NW flow.

[bud2380]

12z ICON for the same system Thu/Fri.  The GFS dries this thing up completely and really doesn't have a system to speak of.

 

[bud2380]

Canadian looks solid too. 

 

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Tom said:

That to has caught my eye..NW IN is in a good spot for this as the HP has more of a N/S flow instead of a NW flow.

It's been teased at times.  Any mesolow development could alter things a bit as well.  I think Porter/Laporte will certainly get it on it... question is how much farther west.

[bud2380]

NAM is in position too.  So the only model really showing nothing is the GFS.

 

[bud2380]

The RDPS really highlights the potential with this one.  This is as far as the model run goes, but you can expand this further east.  I don't think this is a true Alberta clipper, but it does appear to be coming from a NW flow.  These are always fun when they have a little moisture to work with.  With exceptionally cold air already in place, snow ratios should be high and could lead to some very surprise totals.  Models always dry these out as they head east, and in my own observation, sometimes dry them out too much, so I'm curious to see what models show over the next 24 hours as we get closer to this event. 

 

[bud2380]

UK model spits this out into two pieces and goes further south before weakening substantially as it heads east.

 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Don't look back you say?? Today I'm enjoying my MLK holiday off and channeling the 70's with the strong S. stream lows and the deep deep snow they covered The Mitt with. I'm not the biggest winner with these storms but 2 feet of snow since last Monday is hard to complain about. @Tom's mountain vid inspired me.

 

 

 

 

Beautiful amigo!!! Enjoy it. 

[mlgamer]

1.6(F) in MBY with a gentle snow falling.

As others have noted, it feels like I have time-traveled back to the winters of the late 70s and early 80s. Is it January 1979 or 2024? It seems most everyone in the sub has gotten in on the action and how often does that happen? Enjoy!

 

[Iceresistance]

I actually managed to get down to -1°F this morning

[indianajohn]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It's been teased at times.  Any mesolow development could alter things a bit as well.  I think Porter/Laporte will certainly get it on it... question is how much farther west.

 

yea a prolonged impactful LES event is really rare in lake county. The setup has to be perfect for a prolonged thumping. Usually they are brief backside setupe  from a storm type occurrences. 

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm not the biggest winner with these storms but 2 feet of snow since last Monday is hard to complain about.

Is that M 61 in you picture?

[Tom]

My brother left Holland, MI and on the way back he encountered a pile up.  Thank God he didn’t get hit from behind.  He’s very lucky to have been spared from any accident.

 

[Jayhawker85]

20 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

1.6(F) in MBY with a gentle snow falling.

As others have noted, it feels like I have time-traveled back to the winters of the late 70s and early 80s. Is it January 1979 or 2024? It seems most everyone in the sub has gotten in on the action and how often does that happen? Enjoy!

 

The snow has started here as well. Hopefully we can get a strong squall or 2 to move in today to beef us the tundra 

[bud2380]

Euro dipped south for the system later this week.  Similar to the UK, but not quite that bad.

 

[bud2380]

SREF is further north that the Euro.

 

[bud2380]

Lets hope the Canadian is onto something here.

 

[bud2380]

Davenport and LaCrosse didnt mention snow at all for Thursday.  Des Moines did and said could be as high as 1-3" if more moisture works in. 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS much farther west. 

[Andie]

13 hours ago, Andie said:

11* at 6am. Light snow.  
About a 1/2” on the ground. 

(I’m not checking just yet)  Commute tomorrow won’t be fun.  

Another drop since post   9*

 

 

To follow up the snow melted fast.  
No sweat on the road.  Currently 22*
28* for the high tomorrow. Partly Sunny. 

[Clinton]

18z Euro

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Niko said:

Beautiful amigo!!! Enjoy it. 

Thanks! Was in Canton today, and surprised at how much snow there was/is especially a bit west towards Ann Arbor and up towards Brighton. You were correct, could have been a Warning issued. Either of the last 2 winters I ended up with those amounts and was always under a Warning. I think maybe two reasons they didn't go Warning. Not enough confidence, and the new 7" minimum threshold which not everyone in a given county received. Meanwhile, I am back to GRR's area and getting a WWA even when I get more than enough to score a Warning. Nothing's changed. Not that I expected it to ofc.

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, westMJim said:

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for January 15th

1972: Muskegon falls to 12 below zero to set a record low. The temperature only rises to 4 below zero on this day, the coldest high temperature on record for the month of January at Muskegon. It is also the coldest high temperature for January at Grand Rapids, where the maximum is three below zero.

1984: Lansing plunges to 25 below zero and Grand Rapids falls to 14 below during a stretch of arctic cold. Temperatures are below zero for eight straight days at Lansing between the 14th and the 21st.

2007, an ice storm hit the greater Flint and Metro Detroit areas. Over 150,000 customers were without power due to the ice accumulations. The storm caused an estimated $2 million in damages. The same storm also left the Tri-Cities and Thumb regions with 4 to 6 inches of snow. Note the tri cities in Michigan are Bay City, Midland and Saginaw. 

True story here. I happened to be driving through Lansing late that night in my very first car. I had bought the ride in '82 but that following winter was the Super Nino and never really got cold. Fast-forward to 83-84 and Old Man Winter was making up for lost time. As I approached Lansing from the south I suddenly noticed my car heater was blowing "cool air" even though the knob was on hot. No car thermometers back then ('72 Olds born right there in Lansing) so it wasn't until the following day I heard on the news how the mercury had plummeted so low which explained my experience perfectly. Been a couple winters during my driving life that I've had to resort to the old cardboard in front of the radiator trick. My new garage keeps my ride at 50F even when it was 6F this morning. I have almost instant heat which is a treat after parking outside the past 5 or 6 winters. 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, westMJim said:

Is that M 61 in you picture?

Yes, both the photo and the video. That is when I leave my place and head south to the x-way. The state road crews must have been so focused on 127, they ignored M61 and it got that hard packed 2" layer that is now locked in place due to the cold. With traffic it is getting very slick under the tires. They need to get some sand on it before more accidents happen. There's hills here too, it's not all flat. Detroit sits atop a large salt mine and during winter, the streets are white from the excessive salt usage not snow. I don't care for that and all the slush that comes with, so I'm fine with not salting here, but they should deploy sand which, oddly they have on the side road hills, just the state highway apparently being ignored. We are kind of on the fringe. 

[Clinton]

It's currently -6 with a WC of -14 at my place.  Temps should make it into double digits today.

[Black Hole]

No real change in the forecast for the next few days, we moderate Wed-Thurs before another shot of cold air comes in. It'll be dry down this way but it looks like you all to the north could get a clipper system with a few inches. 

Extended looks like a flip to mild and very wet. Could easily be 2-3" of rain here next week with the pattern shown. 

[Tom]

"O Canada"...Hey there, I like where this could be trending...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

16 and light snow. Been snowing for most of this last 24 hours in a row, which is not bad for around here.

For a brief moment the snow flakes were larger right before posting. Now back to flurry size.

[Tom]

06z GEFS...look similar but not as widespread as the GGEM...

[Tom]

0z CMCE...

 

 

[Tom]

@Hoosier @indianajohn @tbone8 Lake Effect signal growing a bit stronger...

 

[Tom]

12z NAM showing a nice ribbon of 1-3"  Wed PM/Thu AM across N IL into S MI...these are the type of meso scale snow events in a cold atmosphere I really enjoyed back in my old place.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

"O Canada"...Hey there, I like where this could be trending...

 

This is screaming very high ratios, should it verified.

[Black Hole]

Considering the cold still coming the next few days I think January could average 5-6F below normal when all is said and done down this way. It might be just enough to offset the way too warm December. We will see what February holds but it'd be nice to get a below normal DJF. 

[Tom]

Might need to start a thread for these two separate snow systems...in back-2-back fashion, looks like a few of you in the MW/Lower Lakes will be adding to the ever growing glacier!