January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Historically mid January is overwhelmingly our best window for sustained big league cold. If nothing else it's great to finally have the (likely) best upper level dynamics of the season line up with that.

Let's hope we can hit the pay station.

[Gradient Keeper]

I am eager to see how models look by Thursday 00z/Friday 12z.

00z GFS Thursday evening in 74 hours 44 minutes, Friday 12z in 86 hours 44 minutes
00z ECMWF Thursday evening in 76 hours 54 minutes, Friday 12z in 88 hours 54 minutes

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty serious stuff here.

A couple members go crazy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went on a short hike at silver falls. The new north falls viewpoint is nice. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14

[Dave]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Went on a short hike at silver falls. The new north falls viewpoint is nice. 

Hopefully, some moron parents will keep their kids from playing on the railings causing a fall and lawsuit.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14

1959 was a good year right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down at my Dads place in the valley. Dense fog and 41.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Went on a short hike at silver falls. The new north falls viewpoint is nice. 

That seems nice! Been too long since I last made it to Silver falls. Maybe if it gets cold and snowy for a while that would be a good chance to see the falls! Would they even plow the roads up there though?

[Slushy Inch]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I didn't notice earlier, but the ECMWF shows some places freezing again tonight.   Nice to get some cold in before the possible big stuff.

Cool down those surfaces for the snow 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

I showed my seven year old this and the images above with Arctic air and he is excited about it coming here. Shouldn't tell him that model runs can change but wow. That's a 20 degree departure for my location if it holds. In the last few years, the arctic air has made to my location but the gradient is usually near so we've had more like a -10 to -15 anomaly.

[Slushy Inch]

18z euro control snowier and a little colder. 144 hrs, timing moving up! I’m in the blue! Also look at the mountain snow!

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Nice snowstorm

 

Please please let it so! 2 weeks out sadly.

[SeanNyberg]

It’s fun when the board lights up with pepto and exclamation points!

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can we get this image for Southern OR?

It's funny that Camano is in the grey. As @MossMan knows, they'll probably get several inches, have downed trees on the south end, snow covered roads for days, and school closures featuring power outages and it will be fun for snow lovers.

[GHweatherChris]

 

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

Excellent

[TacomaWx]

 Still definitely not on the hype train yet for mid January…yet. Praying I am right with my late November prediction lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

Looking forward to the upper 40s and haze while you're rooting for more 60 burgers.

Sorry about that. Would rather root for 70-burgers but there has not been enough global warming to make that realistic yet. Soon….

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

One of the few things that make me laugh so hard it hurts!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From last night's extended range GEFS:

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here. The only swamp I know

How's the SEC model looking?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

24 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

I'm so glad I can't speak German and know what they're actually saying, this is HILARIOUS 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here's another classic, created by Rob (Gradient Keeper).

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm so glad I can't speak German and know what they're actually saying, this is HILARIOUS 

My favorite was one they did for the 49ers about a decade or so ago. My friend who has seen the actual movie says the memes and jokes are far better than the film itself.

[SpaceRace22]

1 hour ago, SeanNyberg said:

Not you  You’re great!

I’m referring to those who like to dump cold (or warm in this case) water on everyone’s excitement seeing potential snow and cold. I find it reductive to constantly tell people snow is difficult and GFS is unreliable. It’s attention seeking behavior that should’ve been left on the grade school playground.

Keep posting your excitement. It’s fun to watch. The world needs more joy and enthusiasm.

You keep spitting absolute fire and I am so here for it.

I seriously question the mental health of the people who take pleasure in coming in here and constantly injecting their pseudo-"realism" into every discussion with the obvious intent of ruining people's excitement and upsetting people. Some people need to do some serious self reflection about how they interact with other human beings.

[Phishy Wx]

if this were WA or something this would be no big deal, but there is no elevation difference in FL, so nuts

 

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

43 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

18z euro control snowier and a little colder. 144 hrs, timing moving up! I’m in the blue! Also look at the mountain snow!

I know it's just the Euro ensemble instead of the ECMWF, but seeing this 6 days out makes me more likely to believe it could happen for my part of rural SE WA.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Let's hope it doesn't turn to this:

[SpaceRace22]

34 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

It’s fun when the board lights up with pepto and exclamation points!

**** pepto, I want radioactive turquoise cotton candy or bust.

[Kolk1604]

13 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How's the SEC model looking?

Home for the season lol 

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Historically mid January is overwhelmingly our best window for sustained big league cold. If nothing else it's great to finally have the (likely) best upper level dynamics of the season line up with that.

When was the last time we had the best dynamics of the season perform in January? 2016-17? Even that winter had plenty going on in Dec and Feb.

[Ken in Wood Village]

20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here's another classic, created by Rob (Gradient Keeper).

I loved watching this game show

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Does anything stand out?

RPDYL INTSFYG

Bombing Low pressure pumping a stronger ridge into Alaska.                                                         

 

[AbbyJr]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That remains to be seen.  We will probably need another SSW to keep it going much longer than that though.

I'm not so convinced. If we actually pull off a major SSW/PV split, I think we could lock into a cold pattern for 7-14 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

58 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

This is the all-time greatest weather spoof/video ever made. It is the crown jewel. Whoever made this, I shall forever bow down to you. This could never be replicated, nor improved. It is perfection. Whoever made this obviously is within our weather community to have such great knowledge of both the members from the Fox12 Weather Blog and this Forum alike along with all of the typical weather jargon. I remember when I saw myself being included in the video it's just such an honor. LOL.... Still is. Outstanding.

00z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

[AbbyJr]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

1968/69 was the deepest -NAO on record, actually.

Can a strong -NAO force GOA blocking as well? In other words, can GOA blocking be a downstream effect of a -NAO?

If so, then that might explain why 1968/69 performed so well in the PNW. Strongest -NAO on record.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

How the hell is snow shown that far south in Mississippi

It’s snowed in Miami before. 

56 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

All time greatest post on this forum.

27 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You keep spitting absolute fire and I am so here for it.

I seriously question the mental health of the people who take pleasure in coming in here and constantly injecting their pseudo-"realism" into every discussion with the obvious intent of ruining people's excitement and upsetting people. Some people need to do some serious self reflection about how they interact with other human beings.

It’s not healthy to live your life in fantasy land either. Need a balance between realism and hope/imagination. 

27 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

if this were WA or something this would be no big deal, but there is no elevation difference in FL, so nuts

 

 

 

Lots of westerly flow thanks to El Niño. Same reason it was so fukkin hot across the gulf states last summer.

5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I'm not so convinced. If we actually pull off a major SSW/PV split, I think we could lock into a cold pattern for 7-14 days.

Given how receptive the Strat/NAM is to wave driving this year, I’m not sure a major SSW/split is needed. But seems that may eventually happen regardless..we’ll see.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Can a strong -NAO force GOA blocking as well? In other words, can GOA blocking be a downstream effect of a -NAO?

If so, then that might explain why 1968/69 performed so well in the PNW. Strongest -NAO on record.

Yes -NAO and -PNA constructively resonate. Especially in this climate era, it’s very difficult to pull off substantial -PNA without a -NAO, and vice versa.

In El Niño, -NAO is almost a prerequisite.

[Gradient Keeper]

34 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here's another classic, created by Rob (Gradient Keeper).

Haha, I made that long ago. I think I made another version depicting a crummy Winter along with a severe weather version.

Yep!