January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[NorCal55]

Are we at that point where models start to shift things East, or it gets better and retro slides down into CA?

[Mercurial]

Another WWA.  We've nickled and dimed our way to 3" so far (since Thurs morning).  Snow looks to get heavier early next week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

850s get brutally cold on this GFS run.  Way below -30 over the North Cascades.  This run spits out a -40 for Winthrop.

What a Cold Pool! Gonna need a few strong systems to even scour out all that Arctic air in the Columbia Basin.

[Hawksfan2008]

[Jbolin]

We have two HUGE events to look forward to this coming week.

The Washington Huskies winning the national championship and a huge region wide arctic outbreak.

We'll be fine folks. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Euro and GFS both calling for a little snow IMBY Monday morning.

[snow_wizard]

If anything the ECMWF looks slightly better than the 12z at hour 90.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hope it snows in Death Valley. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's going to be pretty hard to shank this one now.  The point of no return pattern is so close.

One of my rules to live by is “It’s never too late for a last-minute rug pull.”

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Euro and GFS both calling for a little snow IMBY Monday morning.

I'll be surprised if somebody doesn't get snow from the first trough.

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

Hope it snows in Death Valley. 

Las Vegas or at least the very low surrounding hills look to get something possibly maybe.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's going to be pretty hard to shank this one now.  The point of no return pattern is so close.

Sunday

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

Does anyone know what the threshold is for hazardous temps?

I'm guessing it depends on what part of the country you're talking about.  Here I would say highs 25 or lower and lows 15 or lower.  Cold enough to freeze pipes, cause frostbite, etc.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Sunday

Going to be telling my friends if everything’s still on track at this time tomorrow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's going to be pretty hard to shank this one now.  The point of no return pattern is so close.

Tonight is going to be the night where all the models converge on COLD and SNOW!

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Tonight is going to be the night where all the models converge on COLD and SNOW!

Wouldn't it be something if the 00z doubled down and went even colder?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I wasn't kidding when I said it could be VERY Dangerous and not 384 hour fantasyland

This is pretty much signaling that the Arctic Front will drop down to the OR/CA border.

[snow_wizard]

I've been pretty intrigued by the Graph Cast model.  Today's 12z was the coldest yet, and it actually has the cold being reinforced late in the run.  Before last night's run it had been showing solidly chilly on every run, but not truly cold.  Every run on that model has been good to excellent this week with no exceptions.

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be surprised if somebody doesn't get snow from the first trough.

Would be nice if we could score a skiff Monday morning. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Going to be telling my friends if everything’s still on track at this time tomorrow.

Good call IMO.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Going to be telling my friends if everything’s still on track at this time tomorrow.

Think everyone with a smartphone knows at this point! 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Think everyone with a smartphone knows at this point! 

Mine just has a bunch of middle fingers

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, PrideOfPrineville said:

Wouldn't it be something if the 00z doubled down and went even colder?

Wouldn’t surprise me!  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Think everyone with a smartphone knows at this point! 

Here’s mine, BRRR!  

[ShawniganLake]

Wet and breezy. 0.79” of rain. 42F

[RayRay]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here’s mine, BRRR!  

Here’s Mine:

[High Desert Mat?]

Redmond……. Oregon. 

[Dave]

Interesting.

 

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

One of my rules to live by is “It’s never too late for a last-minute rug pull.”

My favorite rule from recent years to get an estimate on the amount of snow I can realistically (or maybe minimally) expect compared to modeled snow is is to divide the modeled snow total by 2 and subtract 2" for each day until the snow is expected to fall. So a 12" storm within a day is probably going to give me at least 4" of snow and 20" within 4 days means there's a likelihood I see at least some accumulations.

Only applying this rule fewer than 5 days out means I've almost never been disappointed.

[Phishy Wx]

getting chilly

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Going to be telling my friends if everything’s still on track at this time tomorrow.

Normally I’d say that sounded really soon….but if I was in Bellingham and into SW BC I’d feel pretty good right about now. I am definitely not as confident yet for us puget sounders. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

getting chilly

Hey Parrot, everyone else is posting their extended, this isn't spam guy

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Hey Parrot, everyone else is posting their extended, this isn't spam guy

Said earlier that I was sick of ppl posting their weather/forecast without any hint of their location, not sure how else to complain.

[Hawksfan2008]

Slight tick to the east on at 18z EPS but no major changes  

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, Parrot said:

Said earlier that I was sick of ppl posting their weather/forecast without any hint of their location, not sure how else to complain.

I just joined and put my location in pretty soon.  I guess some don't want you to know :).  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

My phone is going for ice and a high of -7˚C a week from tomorrow.

[Hawksfan2008]

Control doing control things. 

[Randyc321]

All three major Seattle TV news websites are now forecasting snow to start Thursday night and for temps to fall into the low 20's.

What is happening

[Kolk1604]

For comparrison the control is colder for Thursday morning 

 

[T-Town]

Only one snowflake for T Town. Needs work.