January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, PrideOfPrineville said:

Just a theory, but it seems that in east wind events, Chehalem Mt. area really doesn't have anything blocking it.  Almost a Forest Grove effect type area.  That Farmington rd. gap runs basically straight towards it.  Just a guess and not based on any real knowledge.

Yeah I've noticed that the WRF GFS shows enhanced east winds there sometimes

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Interesting how much stronger the Tuesday system trended on the GFS today. From a 996mb open wave on the 6z to a tight 982mb low on the 18z.

That's a pretty huge change for inside 100 hours and could easily impact the angle/depth of penetration of the arctic air later in the week. Also seems like it could bring heavy wet snow to SW BC if it keeps that strength and track.

 

Barely back and already poo pooing on things 

[LowerGarfield]

This is going to blow it for me. But I'm excited that I finally found a snow ruler from weather your way and ordered it today. Most rulers are in eighths so no more math. Probably won't get here for awhile but still cool.  

[Gradient Keeper]

The biggest issue if this doesn't pan out is Day 5-7 the energy trying to shove the ridge to the east and split the ridge and Aleutian high pressure cell from merging. We really want to see 00z runs show a stronger ridge/merger and shunt that energy further southwest.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this but I saw Rod Hills blog on youtube and he is saying that the arctic air will definitely go south of Eugene eventually sinking to the bay area. It will come through Portland Thursday evening and be into California by Saturday. He says the cold will last all of the following week but snow may vary due to the dryness of the air but show snow on Friday and maybe Sunday.

I just posted his video update. I love how he keeps it real instead of being too conservative. I pretty much agree with his thinking right now.

[GHweatherChris]

Oh, and this is gonna be a top 10 rug pull scenario, bummer.

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

This is going to blow it for me. But I'm excited that I finally found a snow ruler from weather your way and ordered it today. Most rulers are in eighths so no more math. Probably won't get here for awhile but still cool.  

I changed the oil in my snowblower and cleared it of debris today.  Probably going to bust now.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Kinda a cool feature on Apple weather. 

[PrideOfPrineville]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The biggest issue if this doesn't pan out is Day 5-7 the energy trying to shove the ridge to the east and split the ridge and Aleutian high pressure cell from merging. We really want to see 00z runs show a stronger ridge/merger and shunt that energy further southwest.

Does everyone always get like this in the later stages before the next model runs? LOL

 

[MossMan]

Just now, PrideOfPrineville said:

Does everyone always get like this in the later stages before the next model runs? LOL

 

Yes! 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, PrideOfPrineville said:

Does everyone always get like this in the later stages before the next model runs? LOL

 

welcome to the art of the forum model ride

[MossMan]

Massive GFS run begins soon!!!! 

[Sandy rocks]

Rod Hill has never been afraid to say what he wants to say, I never thought that Mark Nelson would be either.

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

welcome to the art of the forum model ride

Quite the experience.  I know Rob from the old blog and he usually seems upbeat.

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, PrideOfPrineville said:

Does everyone always get like this in the later stages before the next model runs? LOL

 

Are you new here?

[PrideOfPrineville]

2 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Rod Hill has never been afraid to say what he wants to say, I never thought that Mark Nelson would be either.

Mark = credibility

Rod = little to no credibility, he is getting better though at his advanced age.

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, Jbolin said:

Are you new here?

Here, yes.  Not to weather though.

Some here think the sky is falling.

[Gradient Keeper]

They all gathered for the first time Thursday, January 11th for the first annual Western Weather Forum meet-n-greet Snowball Fight extravaganza... After they were all properly hammered from downing brewkies at Tapster they ventured outside and it was glorious.

[Dave]

Something is running right now. Unfortunately, it is my nose.

[High Desert Mat?]

I hope I’m wrong but don’t think I am. 

[MossMan]

And it’s headed our way! 

 

[SeanNyberg]

I'm not at all dreading the back to back to back 00z runs coming up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I know you do.  Haven't figured that out.  Air/wind patterns must be different.  What's the reason for that?  Are you getting some colder air filtering down from the mountains?

I think we are in a really good spot for upsloping. We average about 75” of precip annually which I’m sure is a quite a bit more than Chehalem, though I could be wrong. So yeah we benefit from stronger upsloping, heavier precip rates and depending on the orientation of the trough, the upsloping can cause the moisture to continually backbuild over us. In January 2012 we had about 84 hours of nonstop snowfall. Much of that was very light, but it was why we were able to have such ridiculous totals during that event. 

[SpaceRace22]

By posting this right before the 00z GFS makes this thread explode with 30 new pages, no one will know that I have poos in my pants

[BLI snowman]

Icon trending a tiny bit west.

[Weiner Warrior]

Pepto... I need pepto...

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go!!!!

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I'm not at all dreading the back to back to back 00z runs coming up. 

I hate it. Can't look away even if I wanted to. This hobby is emotionally taxing

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Icon trending a tiny bit west.

In some ways 

[bainbridgekid]

18 hours ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Oh my f*cking god mark nelsen’s video podcast from today is pure gold! He reacts to the 12z euro live! All of you need to see it. If you scroll down to the video and forward to about 26 mins.

 

https://www.kptv.com/podcasts/weather/

His disbelief live at seeing how cold the 12z Euro was is absolute GOLD.

"Is that a 507 contour???"

"Why does it have to complicate things??"

"Oh my gosh that's cold. UGH."

"Oh good god. Oh GOOOOD. -17, -19, -20??? Noooooo"

Definitely confirms he's not too excited by Winter weather like he used to be. 

[Cold Snap]

Hopefully the Druncle can make us all happy!

[thisisacreativename]

[uwgraduate2021]

Reacting to posts this week is so fun. If a post casts a reasonable doubt on the chances of the Puget Sound freezing over, I just call the OP a weenie — it’s that simple. Really everyone who disagrees with my preferred outcome is a weenie. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Hopefully the Druncle can make us all happy!

This isn't the druncle. It's the real deal. Fasten your seat belt.

[SpaceRace22]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Hopefully the Druncle can make us all happy!

Druncle is the 18z. Papa is sobered up now and ready to provide for his family.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1.5 (4-run trend)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Massive GFS run begins soon!!!! 

 

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here we go!!!!

 

5 minutes ago, thisisacreativename said:

 

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

This isn't the druncle. It's the real deal. Fasten your seat belt.

Gonna be a long exciting night! Got my Celsius Arctic Vibe energy drinks ready to go! I’ll down as much of them in order to make it through the night!

[awright-31]

I broke down and subscribed to WB. I told myself I wasn't going to do it this winter but I can't not now. Oh well.

[Prairiedog]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are in a really good spot for upsloping. We average about 75” of precip annually which I’m sure is a quite a bit more than Chehalem, though I could be wrong. So yeah we benefit from stronger upsloping, heavier precip rates and depending on the orientation of the trough, the upsloping can cause the moisture to continually backbuild over us. In January 2012 we had about 84 hours of nonstop snowfall. Much of that was very light, but it was why we were able to have such ridiculous totals during that event. 

How about temps?  With upsloping, if your temps are even a couple degrees colder than Chehalem, that can be a big deal.  They're also really exposed from all directions as it's often pretty windy there.