Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
The funny thing is the GFS was the one showing a quick return to troughing a few days ago, with the Euro in the perma-ridge camp. It’s almost like the GFS will accidentally be a genius for a moment and be the first to pick up on a new trend, then lose the scent after about 24 hours while the other models catch on more consistently. Then it will hold onto the new solution like grim death before caving just 3-4 days out. I feel like we’ve seen the same scenario with cold events lately.
That said, I do think the GFS will end up being right about an extended warm event this time.
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