Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
Not by the ONI definition (in the post WWII era, at least).
Though 91/92 - 94/95 and 2002/03 - 04/05 were almost exclusively niño flavored in the grand scheme of things.
And 2014/15 - 16/17 all had niño conditions present at some point during boreal winter. Though there was a weak niña anomaly present in summer/fall 2016, which subsequently collapsed in Jan 2017.
00z EPS is legit. I can still see a pathway to cold neutral or weak niña outcome, but those odds are decreasing.
I miss ENSO neutral winters. We are owed a 3-year El Niño after 5 Niñas in 8 years.
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