January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

Just crazy that this happens in 4 days and we still don't have model agreement.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It didn’t dig that shortwave over the NPAC which is what all the “good” runs do. It’s evident at 72hrs out.

GFS still insists it rides over the ridge instead (bad).

Why do you think it’s doing that? Bad initialization data, lack of it, bad model in general?

[SnowWillarrive]

Cliff is rejoicing 

[snow_wizard]

It's not like the GFS is warm by any means, but it really shanks the progression.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I turn 38 today, but feel great health wise (just a little lower back pain every now and then) and I am pretty consistently mistaken for being about 10 years younger. So I must be doing something right…

Also, next November will be my 20th anniversary with some form of this community. Started sh*tposting on Mark’s Weather blog on 11/30/05, at the ripe age of 19.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty shocking the GFS still has a stick up its butt.  The ICON and GEM are amazing.

IIRC the GFS also had a stick up its butt when all the other models were on board with the Dec 2022 blast.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Almost any solution showing us getting really cold will lead to snow. I don't think it's that big of a deal if the cold doesn't start out snowy, who the hell likes snow on warm ground anyways....

It’s won’t be a guarantee to a very large area getting a legitimate snowstorm 

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy that this happens in 4 days and we still don't have model agreement.  

I agree. If the Euro looks the same, I'm thinking the GFS has something wrong. We'll see how the Euro looks tonight. 

[FroYoBro]

USA isn’t what it used to be.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy that this happens in 4 days and we still don't have model agreement.  

I've seen the GFS do this a couple of times since the last "upgrade".  When it caves it does so in spectacular fashion.

[Slushy Inch]

Convergence or Arctic front special!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM is about as snowy as its 12Z run with arctic front. 

[Corncob]

20 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

NWS Sacramento has the best graphics for the mountains every year. They show all the state routes and I-5 against a mountain graphic with places shown by elevation.

I also like NWS Spokane's winter page. I think all NWS offices in the NW have one EXCEPT SEATTLE. https://www.weather.gov/otx/winter is Spokane's. Just replace otx with pqr -pdx redirects there too (Portland), mfr (Medford), pdt (Pendleton), mso (Missoula), boi (Boise), but SEW shockingly has no winter weather page. Places like SF Bay or LA don't need one and Sacramento does a very good job anyway of covering their mountains. But Seatte should have a winter page. It shows the full range of probabilities in addition to their official forecast up to 90% percentile and 10% percentile.

I’m often really impressed with Spokane’s forecast discussion page. I find it both more entertaining and informative than Seattle’s.

I feel for NWS Seattle, though, they have an obscenely diverse area to cover in their discussions.

[Phil]

If the 00z Euro/EPS makes a move towards GFS/GEFS solution we’ll probably have our answer. Latter keeps moving farther into an island of its own.

[Randyc321]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

A cold air mass can cover a very large area once it comes in. Snow cannot. That is why we have had so many cold events with no snow over the years. It’s dry air there’s no moisture. We have to have perfect low setup to get decent snow coverage.

Ok, when have you had snow without cold.  

Exactly

[Mid Valley Duck]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy that this happens in 4 days and we still don't have model agreement.  

There are significant differences in the GOA/Aleutians at day 3 

[snow_wizard]

We've seen a lot run like this.

[lowlandsnow]

Gem is not good for Oregon great for those north of Portland though

[High Desert Mat?]

It’s almost like that high off the coast of CA is shunting it eastward. It’s not there on the icon. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Ok, when have you had snow without cold.  

Exactly

When have you had snow without precipitation…

[Doinko]

Cool reverse convergence zone

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Guess it's not accurate.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GEM still looking good. Saturday at 4am.

[Sometimesdylan]

I moved back to Juneau. 
 

was a good 5 year run in Everett… Oakland.. Anchorage… but good to be back home in Southeast AK.

Always loved checking into the forum here in winter as usually cold/snow for PNW means chilly temps and wind here.

 

looks to get highs into the teens weds/thurs here! 
 

Cleared up today. Pretty rare no-north-wind-clear-winter day up here. Definetly been feeling like the El Niño winters in the mid teens (2014-15? 15-16? I think?) 

[snow_wizard]

GEM is going epic it appears.

[Randyc321]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy that this happens in 4 days and we still don't have model agreement.  

Nope.  Tim it's not crazy.  It seems like it happens all the time in the last 5 years or so.  Model Chaos.

 

[SpaceRace22]

The Euro and GEM are definitively more accurate at this range, and it's not unheard of for the GFS to get a pattern just straight up completely wrong in this timeframe. I think it's quite clear which models to trust and which to discount in this scenario.

 

[Phil]

Getting into the timeframe when the Euro is deadly. Hard to overstate the importance of tonight’s run.

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Gem is not good for Oregon great for those north of Portland though

That sounds great!!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Gem is not good for Oregon great for those north of Portland though

Maybe spoke too soon.

[Mid Valley Duck]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Gem is not good for Oregon great for those north of Portland though

It’s not as cold as Washington but it’s still pretty cold and looks like it’s going to deliver an overrunning event

[Requiem]

GFS just won't budge. Then again there have been many times where it insisted on a pattern which simply never came to fruition 

[High Desert Mat?]

The gfs shafts us rhen will give the southeast a big snowstorm. Alabama is the new Utah. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GEM is going epic it appears.

Incoming snowstorm Saturday evening.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Maybe spoke too soon.

Usually best to give analysis after the run is completed or atleast 168 hours done is something I’ve learned over the years 

[snow_wizard]

Not kidding when I say the GEM and ICON are the real deal.

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

When have you had snow without precipitation…

[SeanNyberg]

Like the craziest people out there, the GFS is either brilliant beyond our comprehension and is seeing things we can't understand. OR, it is legitimately crazy and is hallucinating and hearing voices.

[SpaceRace22]

5 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Gem is not good for Oregon great for those north of Portland though

Portland proper is still perfectly fine on this. It's really just the typical south of Woodburn cutoff that gets screwed on this one.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The Euro and GEM are definitively more accurate at this range, and it's not unheard of for the GFS to get a pattern just straight up completely wrong in this timeframe. I think it's quite clear which models to trust and which to discount in this scenario.

 

Please post one of those for a winter month.. thanks