January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Any thoughts on the GFS and GEM?     

Both are probably cracked out. We saw this last December with the GFS which spent a couple days off in lala land when all the models were trying to decipher the battlefield setup. The Canadian actually looks reasonable until it does the whole pause button thing then unleashes cryogenics.

At the moment it looks like the theme that there is going to be a ton of cold available and the potential for it to trigger serious UL cyclogenesis. Question is whether the Pacific will behave and mind its own business in a favorable manner. But f’n a, it’s Saturday night and we’re still in the game. Tuesday is not all that far away…

[The Winter Warlock]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If I had to bet $1,000... I would say the ECMWF comes in much closer to the GEM.

And why don't they have DraftKings and FanDuel for betting on weather models??   

Check out Kalshi if you want to lose money on events like this.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Hyperbolic Trendz said:

You often refer to faulty teleconnections as the primary culprit in fall-apart modeled patterns. I’ve got a (at best) rudimentary understanding of what you’re referring to but I’d like to know more.  If you have a second, how would you explain that somewhat simplistically (beyond just upstream dynamics)?Thanks.  And what are you seeing in that regard currently?

Most models have shown the PNA, NAO, and EPO all deeply negative at the same time during this upcoming possible event.  When all three of those are tanked it's almost impossible for us to not be cold.

With those indices minus it means sharp ridging in the following places...

PNA - over the NE Pacific

EPO - over AK

NAO - over the western Atlantic

[MV_snow]

For those of you worried about “too cold to snow” or “suppression depression” , our failure mode for snow here is almost always lacking arctic air rather than precip missing us to the south. I can only remember that happening in Jan 2017 here in the last decade although I’m sure there have been others. We can usually at least score an overrunning event at the end.

I’m on team historic arctic at this point even if this decreases total snow amounts around the sound. Would be cool to experience. And if snow misses us to the south, maybe we’d hear the end of complaints out of Eugene for a while!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The ensembles look juuust slightly better though. 

Yep. Tiny shift, but it’s an improvement nonetheless.

[Phishy Wx]

went to dinner and came home to see the Gem and icon plans on relocating the north pole to spokane.  i'm here for it

[Phishy Wx]

also friendly reminder that the gfs is a hunk of steaming dog shiit of a model

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Ukmet is still a no, in fact might be worse than the GFS at day 6.

Even in the UKMET's scenario, cold air spills into the Columbia Basin at least

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the GFS gets good too.  Overall still a chilly run there.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Looking closer at the UKMET. It has shifted sizably to the west, still not good though.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

As expected the CMC is a huge outlier from its own ensemble mean.

But the 00z GEFS nudged slightly towards the better solution too. Interesting model battle.

GEPS isn’t out yet?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you worried about “too cold to snow” or “suppression depression” , our failure mode for snow here is almost always lacking arctic air rather than precip missing us to the south. I can only remember that happening in Jan 2017 here in the last decade although I’m sure there have been others. We can usually at least score an overrunning event at the end.

I’m on team historic arctic at this point even if this decreases total snow amounts around the sound. Would be cool to experience. And if snow misses us to the south, maybe we’d hear the end of complaints out of Eugene for a while!

Yeah.  Jan 1950 wasn't too cold for snow.

[Weiner Warrior]

Decent snow totals for Seattle but marginal temps 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you worried about “too cold to snow” or “suppression depression” , our failure mode for snow here is almost always lacking arctic air rather than precip missing us to the south. I can only remember that happening in Jan 2017 here in the last decade although I’m sure there have been others. We can usually at least score an overrunning event at the end.

I’m on team historic arctic at this point even if this decreases total snow amounts around the sound. Would be cool to experience. And if snow misses us to the south, maybe we’d hear the end of complaints out of Eugene for a while!

It was really, really cold in Feb of 2014 for the Seahawks Superbowl Parade, but I don't remember it snowing around then. Of course that day was the day we had the anatomy scan for our youngest, so I may have had other things on my mind.

[Perturbed Member]

Last 3 UKMET runs

 

A small improvement from the crap 12z run maybe but not where it needs to be unfortunately. 

[RentonHill]

GEFS 850s are the best in last 4 runs at hr 132

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you worried about “too cold to snow” or “suppression depression” , our failure mode for snow here is almost always lacking arctic air rather than precip missing us to the south. I can only remember that happening in Jan 2017 here in the last decade although I’m sure there have been others. We can usually at least score an overrunning event at the end.

I’m on team historic arctic at this point even if this decreases total snow amounts around the sound. Would be cool to experience. And if snow misses us to the south, maybe we’d hear the end of complaints out of Eugene for a while!

For you to my south, yes. Here, plenty cold but too dry is a common snowfail scenario. In fact, we're probably due for it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold like the crazy gfs of 2 days ago. The gfs will go ape cold tomorrow 12z.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFs gets pretty cold.  A notch colder than the 12z and 18z.

[RentonHill]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The GEFs gets pretty cold.  A notch colder than the 12z and 18z.

Moses lake is 5c colder 850s

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GEPS isn’t out yet?

Yeah cache problem. But now it’s out to D3.

[SeanNyberg]

00z GFS ensembles decently colder form the 18z GFS ensembles.

00z GFS ensembles MUCH colder than that 00z GFS

Good sign 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Hyperbolic Trendz said:

You often refer to faulty teleconnections as the primary culprit in fall-apart modeled patterns. I’ve got a (at best) rudimentary understanding of what you’re referring to but I’d like to know more.  If you have a second, how would you explain that somewhat simplistically (beyond just upstream dynamics)?Thanks.  And what are you seeing in that regard currently?

I keep it pretty simple, mainly just historic pattern recognition at the 500mb level. It’s not universal but 570dm is pretty good over/under on GOA (~150w) ridge strength when it comes to Omega block setups. When you fall significantly short of that, it’s tough to get the necessary push/pull for an Arctic air mass to make meaningful progress to the south and west. When I see a ton of runs which are balls deep aggressive and GOA ridge support is hanging out in the mid-550’s or even lower, it’s pretty suspect.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Last 3 UKMET runs

 

A small improvement from the crap 12z run maybe but not where it needs to be unfortunately. 

I'd call that a fairly significant improvement but obviously not to the standards of previous runs

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah cache problem. But now it’s out to D3.

Too much sex my man 

[Winterdog]

35 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

No

No biggy.  Thanks for the honest reply.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Requiem said:

I've been posting since 2018 but we're going to ignore that first year and a half...

I enjoyed that timeframe when you joined.  You were a refreshing add to the group….I’m being serious too.  

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

It was really, really cold in Feb of 2014 for the Seahawks Superbowl Parade, but I don't remember it snowing around then. Of course that day was the day we had the anatomy scan for our youngest, so I may have had other things on my mind.

Would be kind of fitting to have the Huskies championship coincide with a big winter event in the same way the Seahawks winning did.

[Mercurial]

The Missoula NWS office noted the weakening of the arctic event as shown on some models in their area forecast discussion today, but they left the door open to a re-intensification.  For what it's worth.  

Quote

Winter weather will not end on Wednesday, especially for residents
of northwest Montana. An arctic cold front will breach the
Continental Divide from the east on Wednesday evening or Thursday
morning. While some model solutions have backed off on the
duration and intensity of this event (for now!), you should still
expect bitter cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills across
northwest Montana along the Continental Divide by Thursday.

 

[snow_wizard]

Just flat out insane trying to keep up with these crazy models.  Nice to see two so far have had epic cold solutions.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Cold like the crazy gfs of 2 days ago. The gfs will go ape cold tomorrow 12z.

You’re a smart man!

[FroYoBro]

When does that AI overlord model come out? 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

When does that AI overlord model come out? 

August 29, 1997 at 2:14 a.m.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

When does that AI overlord model come out? 

whenever it wants to

[Phil]

Out to 132hrs GEPS is slightly better with the block and more negative tilt to the trough but operational run is still a major outlier.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Out to 132hrs GEPS is slightly better with the block and more negative tilt to the trough but operational run is still a major outlier.

Ah yes, classic Phil, a twinge of encouragement but still gets that unneeded shot of reality in there........

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a little over a third of the GEFS members go sub -10 on 850s.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just flat out insane trying to keep up with these crazy models.  Nice to see two so far have had epic cold solutions.

The ICON and GEM were truly EPIC tonight. I just don’t see the EURO changing that much from what it’s been showing. I think it’s going to hold serve again. It also wouldn’t surprise me if it went crazy cold like the ICON/GEM since it’s been in the cold camp. And it showed some frigid cold runs earlier. Gonna save the best for last!

[SimplySmoothWX]

Someone should make a meme where the Euro is hanging over the abyss and being pulled by the GFS and Canadian on each side

[RentonHill]

GEPS way colder than 12z with 850s in BC