January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey guys, gals, furry woodland creatures. I've been sick as crap since 5 am Friday trying to get out of bed and not feel like a zombie. Things are looking pretty good. Euro looks great. EPS improved. GEFS much colder than previous runs Gorge/Columbia Basin. More improvements coming with 00z runs with the ridge bridge/connection. I hope I'm here for 00z runs.

[MossMan]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Hey guys, gals, furry woodland creatures. I've been sick as crap since 5 am Friday trying to get out of bed and not feel like a zombie. Things are looking pretty good. Euro looks great. EPS improved. GEFS much colder than previous runs Gorge/Columbia Basin. More improvements coming with 00z runs with the ridge bridge/connection. I hope I'm here for 00z runs.

Yikes so sorry to hear, glad you are improving! 

[SeanNyberg]

GFS Ensembles running 5-7° cooler run to fun for surface temps around Seattle Late Thursday through Saturday.

Improvements all around. 

[fubario]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Better

[SeanNyberg]

18z GFS Ensembles also snowier across the board. 

[Cold Snap]

13 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Quite the snowpack-killer AR in the long range

FWIW some of the 12z EPS members in the longer range keep us kind of chilly.

[SpaceRace22]

Well we lost the GraphCast, so it's unironcially over. Oh well, it was fun model riding still!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

For every Jim there’s a Tim.

Some are pessimists, some are optimists.

I come to really admire Jim's optimism.   And I am definitely a pessimist by nature... always preparing for the worst.    But I have been very much leaning towards optimism with this lead up... in part because I have been convinced its coming for a few days now.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting tidbit from the Spokane NWS regarding blizzard warnings.

" The last time a blizzard warning was issued in our forecast area was February 9th, 2019. Seattle has not issued a blizzard warning since 2012.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

there are barely any store upticks here.  maybe a little but I don't go out of my way to grocery shop just because its about to snow

Spokane is probably used to snow.

[snow_wizard]

We all knew the GFS would cave.  Pretty useless model when it's so obvious it's wrong.  That having been said....let it be right about the snowstorm next weekend!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I come to really admire Jim's optimism.   And I am definitely a pessimist by nature... always preparing for the worst.    But I have been very much leaning towards optimism with this lead up... in part because I have been convinced its coming for a few days now.  

There were just way more good signs than bad.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

FWIW some of the 12z EPS members in the longer range keep us kind of chilly.

Member 40 doesn't even reach freezing a single time at KPDX lmao

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

FWIW some of the 12z EPS members in the longer range keep us kind of chilly.

So here's the compromise Tim mention. 

We're going to get EPS cold with GEFS snow. 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Well we lost the GraphCast, so it's unironcially over. Oh well, it was fun model riding still!

We did?

Hardly.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

So here's the compromise Tim mention. 

We're going to get EPS cold with GEFS snow. 

 

That's my kind of compromise!

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Well we lost the GraphCast, so it's unironcially over. Oh well, it was fun model riding still!

Idk to what extent but we will likely have it again by this evening. I know all the hype about its verification scores but I still very much trust the EURO more-- and saying it's over after one experimental model run is lol, wait until the rest collapse later or something 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

FWIW some of the 12z EPS members in the longer range keep us kind of chilly.

There are some hints this could still be going after the 15th.  Not ready to bite on that just yet though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Idk to what extent but we will likely have it again by this evening. I know all the hype about its verification scores but I still very much trust the EURO more-- and saying it's over after one experimental model run is lol, wait until the rest collapse later or something 

What are people talking about?  The Graph Cast was super cold.

[snow_wizard]

Then you have this.  Second dip.

[snow_wizard]

Oh my!  The 18z ICON was back to flat out frigid on the 18z.  A last minute turn toward colder runs again would be epic at this point.

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Idk to what extent but we will likely have it again by this evening. I know all the hype about its verification scores but I still very much trust the EURO more-- and saying it's over after one experimental model run is lol, wait until the rest collapse later or something 

Just because you really really want something to be true doesn't make it true. Within 5 days, the GraphCast is far superior to every single traditional model, without question.

Now the good news is the stupid color scheme on the GraphCast tricked my tired self (3pm is like first thing in the morning for me while I'm working nights IRL), so we have not, in fact, lost the GraphCast. Winter uncancel!

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There are some hints this could still be going after the 15th.  Not ready to bite on that just yet though.

I feel like it goes to the 17th.

[snow_wizard]

Thursday is looking like a classic afternoon flash freeze.  Those can be the stuff nightmares are made of if the roads are wet / snowy and then they freeze up.

[SpaceRace22]

26 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

For every Jim there’s a Tim.

Some are pessimists, some are optimists.

Even if pessimists may often be right, they are a million times more insufferable than a perma-optimist.

Unless it's me. When I'm being pessimistic, it's wise and charming and everyone should pay attention to how smart and realistic I am.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Just because you really really want something to be true doesn't make it true. Within 5 days, the GraphCast is far superior to every single traditional model, without question.

Now the good news is the stupid color scheme on the GraphCast tricked my tired self (3pm is like first thing in the morning for me while I'm working nights IRL), so we have not, in fact, lost the GraphCast. Winter uncancel!

Yeah....the graphics and that color scheme suck balls.

[Phishy Wx]

snow > rain > windstorm > snow > cold

 

I've seen worse. meh

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....the graphics and that color scheme suck balls.

This looks fun!

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS 850 mean dropped from -6.1 on the 6z to -11.0 on the 18z.  Yikes!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Even if pessimists may often be right, they are a million times more insufferable than a perma-optimist.

Unless it's me. When I'm being pessimistic, it's wise and charming and everyone should pay attention to how wise and realistic I am.

I have learned that over the years... in my personal life too.   I really only let my pessimist self shine for the Seahawks now!   Life is too short.     

[Phishy Wx]

A warm nose will lead to a 
changeover to rain in the Basin Monday night and will creep 
northward to approximately Deer Park and south of Sandpoint. For 
Eastern Washington, I am expecting approximately 1-3 inches of 
snow north of I-90 and east of 195 in the Palouse. North Idaho 
will see greater snowfall around 3 to 9 inches, locally up to a 
foot near Sandpoint. Wind highlights are being issued soon for SE 
WA into the Spokane and Cda area Tuesday as well since winds will 
be gusting 45 to 60 mph from the southwest in a wide swath.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I don’t think this will last as long as we thought…..However, I do think we’ll have a nice overrunning event somewhere that could be big!!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doinko said:

This looks fun!

We need to watch that closely.  A potential firehose of snow that hits a lot of places late in the run.

[MossMan]

One thing I don’t think I’ve ever experienced is snow falling with single digits…think the coldest would be 13 degrees in December 1996. 
Let’s make that happen! 

Edited January 7 by MossMan

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I don’t think this will last as long as we thought…..However, I do think we’ll have a nice overrunning event somewhere that could be big!!

It wouldn't be surprising to see some major changes for week two over the next couple of days.  We'll just take it as it comes.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I don’t think this will last as long as we thought…..However, I do think we’ll have a nice overrunning event somewhere that could be big!!

It takes a really special event to go past 3-4 days usually it seems. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what happens. Way too early to tell what’ll happen past next weekend at this point but the potential for this to be a 5-7 day event is there still. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

snow > rain > windstorm > snow > cold

 

I've seen worse. meh

Going to probably be the coldest January readings in years.  Maybe of the century so far.  It's a big deal.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It takes a really special event to go past 3-4 days usually it seems. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what happens. Way too early to tell what’ll happen past next weekend at this point but the potential for this to be a 5-7 day event is there still. 

Many on here may not know January has the longest cold waves on record by far.  It's the month that can really clobber us.

[snow_wizard]

It's nice to see that 507 PV back on the ICON.  That is still a possible outcome it appears.

[iFred]