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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

Meatyorologist
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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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SnowWillarrive Grand Master

SnowWillarrive

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Often happens so would not be surprised either.  

This map is from 10 p.m. Wednesday through 10 p.m. Thursday so it encompasses the entire arctic front passage.   Also includes lots cold onshore flow snow in the Cascades before the arctic front.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5039200 (2).png

Based on that I will be lucky to get an 1 inch with the front. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Based on that I will be lucky to get an 1 inch with the front. 

That is what it shows now... but that is probably the most interesting aspect to be tracking the next 3 days looking for trends or hints of meso-low development.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
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Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is what it shows now... but that is probably the most interesting aspect to be tracking the next 3 days looking for trends or hints of meso-low development.  

100% chance new stuff will show up. I feel a great chance for a good overrunning event that might warm us up a little for a day and then drop back down.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is what it shows now... but that is probably the most interesting aspect to be tracking the next 3 days looking for trends or hints of meso-low development.  

Especially good to keep an eye on the short-term models (HRRR, HRDPS, NAM 3km, etc.). Have had them pick up on last-minute surprise snowfalls here several times.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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Another thing you have to remember.  Arctic air snow is different,  you can get much more accumulation with 2 tenths of water than you normally would. When it is 25 degrees it can dump 3 inches real quick when the ratio is so high.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not totally sure of the set up with the November 2006 arctic front... but I remember we only got about an inch out here while Issaquah had a foot and I think the same thing happened in the south Sound.    I can't ever remember another time when Issaquah had that much more snow than out here.  It was surreal driving west on I-90 the next day and seeing the snow get deeper and deeper.  Its almost always the opposite.   Issaquah was buried and there must not have been much wind because the trees were all holding onto the snow.   It was gorgeous.  

I thought at the time that the cold air from the north down through the Sound caused upsloping against the Issaquah Alps and the hills south of the Puget Sound but left us essentially shadowed in North Bend.  

The best event EVER!! 
Over 24hrs straight of wet snow (about 15”) then a transition to about 3” of powder as the arctic front pushed through at the Lake Goodwin area. 
 

I remember the day before the festivities started things were not looking good, perhaps an inch with arctic passage but was otherwise looking like a non event. Both Brennan and I were quite bummed. Then we got nuked and Jim was not a happy camper! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Another thing you have to remember.  Arctic air snow is different,  you can get much more accumulation with 2 tenths of water than you normally would. When it is 25 degrees it can dump 3 inches real quick when the ratio is so high.

It’s really easy for the models to miss a couple hundredths of an inch of precipitation. We weren’t supposed to get anything really in December 2022 but we had close to an inch on the night of 12/20. Normally a couple hundredths of precip when it’s just a 40 degree night would go completely unnoticed. 

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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

KOIN going with a high of 20 next Saturday. 

IMG_2571.thumb.jpeg.1f5420f611e185e5a26149a6d77fc28a.jpeg

Going to be interesting if Rod's warm GFS wins the day (or is it, loses the day) .  We'll see what Uncle Marky has to say tomorrow. 

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SeanNyberg Rising Star

SeanNyberg

Posted
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This is going to be a snowy storm. We’re starting to see the first hints of a few opportunities, this is just going to grow as we get closer.

There’s a lot of *stuff* happening with this system and it’s not hard to drum up a few inches out of very little with these temperatures.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ICON looks snowy for the Valley Wednesday morning
prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_nw.png
sfct-imp.us_nw.png

ICON is stingy with snow too... that is interesting. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
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Just now, Doinko said:

ICON looks snowy for the Valley Wednesday morning
prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_nw.png
sfct-imp.us_nw.png

 

Looking more and more likely that someone will go isothermal with that setup given the precip rates and dead gradients on the immediate north side of the low. The overnight timing certainly doesn't hurt either.

Just a question of where that sweet spot sets up. Probably won't be more than a 30-40 mile bubble and could be anywhere from Corvallis up to Castle Rock.

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Looking more and more likely that someone will go isothermal with that setup given the precip rates and dead gradients on the immediate north side of the low. The overnight timing certainly doesn't hurt either.

Just a question of where that sweet spot sets up. Probably won't be more than a 30-40 mile bubble and could be anywhere from Corvallis up to Castle Rock.

Fun!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

NWS forecast a 1500 snow level Saturday?  How?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SimplySmoothWX Collaborator

SimplySmoothWX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

I can feel it, somebody is gonna get buried under 12"-18" snow dump in the valley!!

If someone does I hope Corvallis is on the cusp of it. I could use a few extra days off from college. Fall terms been rough on me

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