January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Sounds like they have more faith in the GFS

The GFS has been ridiculously stubborn, and I well know these things usually push moisture north of what is modeled.

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

What seems apparent at the moment is we will have a moisture-laden system collide with frigid air. This is our setup, guys. We wait weeks and months every winter for fleeting chances like this, and as of now it seems like somewhere between Eugene and Bellingham will have a bonafide snowstorm. I think this is enough to be happy about for the current moment 

Easy for you to say from your comfortable snowy throne in Portland!

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost all of the EPS members are south on Saturday now. 

 

Yeah, I think there's a good chance at the moment that this ends up being much ado about nothing as it trends drier for everybody. Definitely noticed a tendency for a bit less offshore cyclogenesis and less dynamic phasing of the energy on the more southward models like the ICON and UKMET, so you see a lot more blank looking snow maps here as that thing kind of just stumbles out of the picture.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

What seems apparent at the moment is we will have a moisture-laden system collide with frigid air. This is our setup, guys. We wait weeks and months every winter for fleeting chances like this, and as of now it seems like somewhere between Eugene and Bellingham will have a bonafide snowstorm. I think this is enough to be happy about for the current moment 

Exactly.  Nobody...and I mean nobody knows where that moisture is going for sure.

[MikeInEverett]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't believe how he picked the one that would screw almost all of us.

Because Jim we are all selfish when it comes to snow it’s just how we are!! I’m sure that track would absolutely bury Randy

[umadbro]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Except for the quality posters.

I see what you did there.

[Winterdog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost all of the EPS members are south on Saturday now.

Stop being Tim please!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Because Jim we are all selfish when it comes to snow it’s just how we are!! I’m sure that track would absolutely bury Randy

There are others that would do well for him and include a lot more people.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The point is it will probably trend north a bit more tonight like the 18z vs 12z.  It's like you have given up hope already.

Its EPS data... so its separate from wants and desires.  Just the cold hard facts!  

And I agree that a northward trend is probably likely given our experience with these situation in the past.  

[Phishy Wx]

wind gusting 55+ currently

 

looks like Cold and Dry is the story, hopefully we can clear out enough to plummet but I don't see records falling without snow cover

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Exactly.  Nobody...and I mean nobody knows where that moisture is going for sure.

Agree with this statement.   It sort of explodes in place so that is going to be hard for the models to handle.   We can just look for consistency.  

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Easy for you to say from your comfortable snowy throne in Portland!

I'm in Eugene!

[Mercurial]

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Seems like this has happens nearly every time in these battleground setups (Nov 2010, Jan 2011, Jan 2012, early Feb 2014, late Feb 2014, Jan 2020, Feb 2021, etc)

 

Models almost always overestimate how quickly the arctic air moves South and therefore overestimate how much it suppresses the incoming low. This also often allows the storm to deepen stronger than modeled and come in further North. 
 

Not saying the GFS solution will be correct, but the fact it’s so strong/North gives me pause to believe the far South solutions. Big runs ahead.

In recent memory it seems that the arctic air is more of a trickle. 

[KingstonWX]

Just now, Requiem said:

I'm in Eugene!

That's your bad then!

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Power is out in my neighborhood for the rest of the night. A branch fell on top of the line down the street, caught on fire and then I heard the transformer blew. Going to be a cold, dark and incredibly snowy night here! 

You southerners are having all the fun.

[westcoastexpat]

Pleased to see that Jim is managing his expectations this time around.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

36 degrees and pouring. Been a very wet day.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Seems like this has happens nearly every time in these battleground setups (Nov 2010, Jan 2011, Jan 2012, early Feb 2014, late Feb 2014, Jan 2020, Feb 2021, etc)

 

Models almost always overestimate how quickly the arctic air moves South and therefore overestimate how much it suppresses the incoming low. This also often allows the storm to deepen stronger than modeled and come in further North. 
 

Not saying the GFS solution will be correct, but the fact it’s so strong/North gives me pause to believe the far South solutions. Big runs ahead.

Great take! 

[Kolk1604]

00z NBM still solid for seattle south 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

36 degrees and pouring. Been a very wet day.

Conversely.... its been pretty dry here since this morning.   And windy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z NAM running, here we go!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z NBM still solid for seattle south 

That is of course just reflecting the GFS in there.  

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Because Jim we are all selfish when it comes to snow it’s just how we are!! I’m sure that track would absolutely bury Randy

Was it one of last winters snow events where the low tracked about like that? Was forecasted to come in slightly south but ended up being stronger than modeled which left a lot of sad people south of Marysville or so? Meanwhile I stayed in the 20’s with heavy snow falling. 

Edited January 10 by MossMan

[Mid Valley Duck]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Olympia cut off like this?  

Side note... this is actually a southward shift for the control run from its 00Z and 06Z runs.

 

A few things that I think might make the QPF amounts on the GFS verify. The source region is straight from Hawaii and PWAT values are pretty high. It’s meeting an extremely cold airmass, as Dewey mentioned yesterday, lots of isentropic lift. Lastly, the NAM, GFS and GEM have both been bullish on developing a surface low out ahead of the parent low. The Euro toyed around with it yesterday but has since taken it away. 

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was it one of last winters snow events where the low tracked about like that? Was forecasted to come in slightly south but ended up being stronger than modeled which left a lot of sad people south of Marysville or so? 

I think that was either last year or the year before. I remember expecting a decent dump of snow and it started out nice but once the low came inland it pulled a bunch of warm air up and turned to rain for me and most of the Seattle metro area. 

Come to think of it, that has happened quite a bit in my 40+ years of hoping for snow. Those events always make people disregard the snow forecasts for the remainder of the season, then get caught surprised when the next one hits. 

[Olive1010]

Why do people think the NWS is inaccurate? I'm asking this because @RequiemNever responded lmao

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Splats are positive

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is of course just reflecting the GFS in there.  

Because it’s correct.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

NOAA’s SREF ensemble probabilities for 24 hour snowfall of >1” and >4” ending Saturday 4am. If this went out further probably higher probabilities since most snow starts falling Friday evening into Saturday afternoon.

 

[ShawniganLake]

12z EPS 850s bottomed out at -19.2C at YVR. That would easily be the coldest airmass there in the 21st century. 

[MikeInEverett]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was it one of last winters snow events where the low tracked about like that? Was forecasted to come in slightly south but ended up being stronger than modeled which left a lot of sad people south of Marysville or so? Meanwhile I stayed in the 20’s with heavy snow falling. 

Hmm. I think I know what you’re talking about but can’t quite put my finger on it. I remember last year I was really hoping I’d stay away from ZR on 12/23 but walked out at 3:30am to drive to work and it was 22 and raining. Most terrifying drive of my life. It might have been that event.

[lowlandsnow]

The WRF the most accurate model is onboard for a Seattle snowstorm

[Olive1010]

Like a 15-25% chance tonight in the Portland metro area that it'll go over 4 inches

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The WRF the most accurate model is onboard for a Seattle snowstorm

It does well occasionally but it does get its data from the GFS or NAM depending on what one you are looking at.

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You southerners are having all the fun.

You're the biggest power outage fan I know, Randy. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

00Z HRRR looks good and amazing. Temperatures are probably to warm to stick but I wouldn't have a problem seeing snow flying in the air 🌨

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

You're the biggest power outage fan I know, Randy. 

So true!   

[Cold Snap]

00z NAM shifted the Portland snow north a bit. Based off this it looks like the EPSL could get some snow tonight too.

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

It does well occasionally but it does get its data from the GFS or NAM depending on what one you are looking at.

The most accurate model is the model I want to verify doesn't matter where it gets its data from