January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SouthHillFrosty]

Apple weather is calling for 19 inches this weekend in Portland

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

00z NAM shifted the Portland snow north a bit. Based off this it looks like the EPSL could get some snow tonight too.

Hey that's almost over me:

LOL

[Gummy]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

The most accurate model is the model I want to verify doesn't matter where it gets its data from

That's the same model I use!

[Cloud]

Getting to hear people speak about weather outside of this place is quite cringy and I’m glad to have found this place. 
 

We had an all employee meeting today with the CEO addressing the  flight AK 1282 incident. Afterwards when we went back to the office and ppl getting lunch, they were all talking about a “blizzard” coming in Friday and how they plan on leaving early Thursday to go stock up for the weekend. 

Wanted to say laugh out loud so bad but instead I just walked away from everyone.  

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

The most accurate model is the model I want to verify doesn't matter where it gets its data from

Oh no no, I am not disputing that, whatever model that is, is my favorite as well.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Cloud said:

Getting to hear people speak about weather outside of this place is quite cringy and I’m glad to have found this place. 
 

We had an all employee meeting today with the CEO addressing the  flight AK 1282 incident. Afterwards when we went back to the office and ppl getting lunch, they were all talking about a “blizzard” coming in Friday and how they plan on leaving early Thursday to go stock up for the weekend. 

Wanted to say laugh out loud so bad but instead I just walked away from everyone.  

Totally people think they know so much just from looking at the weather forecast on their phone

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

00z NAM shifted the Portland snow north a bit. Based off this it looks like the EPSL could get some snow tonight too.

That snow up here is tomorrow morning in some back fill behind the departing low to the south... but the ECMWF also shows a strong south wind and that usually doesn't add up to sticking snow.  

[Requiem]

16 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Why do people think the NWS is inaccurate? I'm asking this because @RequiemNever responded lmao

Who finds the NWS inaccurate? They use a variety of models and tools to determine their forecasts, with additional human input from folks who know the local microclimates and patterns (usually). They definitely have missed big events in the past, but I'm not sure where you're getting these big sweeping statements from 

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Getting to hear people speak about weather outside of this place is quite cringy and I’m glad to have found this place. 
 

We had an all employee meeting today with the CEO addressing the  flight AK 1282 incident. Afterwards when we went back to the office and ppl getting lunch, they were all talking about a “blizzard” coming in Friday and how they plan on leaving early Thursday to go stock up for the weekend. 

Wanted to say laugh out loud so bad but instead I just walked away from everyone.  

I had to deal with the same thing. I think its because a lot of national news sites had headlines talking about a blizzard in Seattle due to the Blizzard warning from NWS Seattle for the cascades. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That snow up here is tomorrow morning in some back fill behind the departing low to the south... but the ECMWF also shows a strong south wind and that usually doesn't add up to sticking snow.  

Must inject reality into the hope of others, dash those dreams..... get em Tim

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Totally people think they know so much just from looking at the weather forecast on their phone

I blame this. I think all they do is read the headline. 
https://amp.thenewstribune.com/news/local/article283982113.html

[umadbro]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Apple weather is calling for 19 inches this weekend in Portland

I don’t know about that but the weather channel and Wunderground has been steady in about 10-16 inches in Ridgefield for a few days now. So it’s likely not that far off

[GobBluth]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Who finds the NWS inaccurate? They use a variety of models and tools to determine their forecasts, with additional human input from folks who know the local microclimates and patterns (usually). They definitely have missed big events in the past, but I'm not sure where you're getting these big sweeping statements from 

They have a habit of responding too slow to actual conditions that go against their forecast, then they overcompensate.

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

00z NAM shifted the Portland snow north a bit. Based off this it looks like the EPSL could get some snow tonight too.

I might survive the dark night! 

[AbbyJr]

@Phil @snow_wizard 

Does MJO phase 7 still help get the PNW cold during El Niño or is that only best phase when we are in a La Niña?

Forgive me for my lack of knowledge but I'm not sure how the MJO and ENSO interact. Still lots to learn here but that's one reason weather communities are great. Lot's of knowledgeable people. Great place to ask questions and learn.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here is the 18Z ECMWF snow fall 

[OysterPrintout]

Looking at obs vs model data and seeing GRAF and Euro pare the totals down sure feels like normal valley floor areas might well end up a predictable snow show in the air missed if you fell asleep early situation. 

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Looking at obs vs model data and seeing GRAF and Euro pare the totals down sure feels like normal valley floor areas might well end up a predictable snow show in the air missed if you fell asleep early situation. 

huh?

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Hmm. I think I know what you’re talking about but can’t quite put my finger on it. I remember last year I was really hoping I’d stay away from ZR on 12/23 but walked out at 3:30am to drive to work and it was 22 and raining. Most terrifying drive of my life. It might have been that event.

It was one where it ended up being slush or just plain rain for most south of Marysville but after the low passed it switched back to snow for many of you before the precip ended. I will need to check my photo archives to jog my memory! 

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It was one where it ended up being slush or just plain rain for most south of Marysville but after the low passed it switched back to snow for many of you before the precip ended. I will need to check my photo archives to jog my memory! 

Pretty sure you are talking about the one last December. I remember waking up to a 34 degree rain before it switched back to snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was it one of last winters snow events where the low tracked about like that? Was forecasted to come in slightly south but ended up being stronger than modeled which left a lot of sad people south of Marysville or so? Meanwhile I stayed in the 20’s with heavy snow falling. 

I know last winter there was a system that was modelled to drop about 4" up here, then at the last minute the short-term models upped that to 8–12", and then 10–14" actually fell. That was a fun surprise!

[OysterPrintout]

9 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

huh?

please check with @Requiemfor more information

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Must inject reality into the hope of others, dash those dreams..... get em Tim

Always a struggle on here!   Some people want the nitty gritty details and some people just want to dream.   And I appreciate and totally understand both.    And then you have people dreaming from one location where if they get their dream then someone else in another location doesn't... so you post something as good news to one person and then other people say you are dashing their dreams.  Its an age old battle.   And I have come to respect and admire the dreamers and do my best to walk the line.    But its virtually impossible to please everyone.   I like the weenies and the complainers and the dreamers and the statistical people. The only thing that bothers me is personal attacks.   That ruins it for everyone.   But there hasn't been much of that lately.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I know last winter there was a system that was modelled to drop about 4" up here, then at the last minute the short-term models upped that to 8–12", and then 10–14" actually fell. That was a fun surprise!

That sounds like January 2017 out here except they didn’t up the amounts last minute and we got a foot more than expected.

[GHweatherChris]

My current favorite model is the 01Z HRRR, it shows me getting 3-4" of snow overnight, oh and look he returned home.....

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM looks a little south on Friday continuing a southward trend the last 3 runs... further updates to follow.

[The Cats Meow]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM looks a little south on Friday continuing a southward trend the last 3 runs... further updates to follow.

Please, do keep us updated.

Good or bad, I want to hear it.

I will continue to believe.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I know last winter there was a system that was modelled to drop about 4" up here, then at the last minute the short-term models upped that to 8–12", and then 10–14" actually fell. That was a fun surprise!

Must have been that morning! 

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM for Friday afternoon... and 12Z run below for comparison.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z NAM snow arrives PDX Metro by Friday 4pm.

[MossMan]

Just now, The Cats Meow said:

Please, do keep us updated.

Good or bad, I want to hear it.

I will continue to believe.

No…I only want to hear if it’s good for my backyard!

[Snownerd3000]

3 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The NBM favors whichever model has the highest skill score over the past several weeks. 

 

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is of course just reflecting the GFS in there.  

I thought the gfs skill score sucked in comparison. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM also looks a little snowier in King County with the arctic front Thursday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Friday 10pm still snow for PDX Metro but freezing rain and sleet to the SW.

[GHweatherChris]

Ya, in real time this weekend things will definitely be further north than modeled.

[ajreich]

Looks juicy.  

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

[The Cats Meow]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM also looks a little snowier in King County with the arctic front Thursday.

A lot of times these arctic fronts drop some surprise snow.

An inch or two of powder popping up out of nowhere is not out of the question.

Chances.  We have chances.  That's all I really want.