January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently a chilly 40 in Albany. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely... almost to Portland.   North of the ECMWF now.

New trend.  By tomorrow, it will be over Seattle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably some major ZR/sleet totals in there too. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We are so fuckked...lol

[SnowySeeker50]

Not budging above 37f so far today. Quite dark outside

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Hope so. I have had 4 real arctic front strait effect events since I moved here. 3 drastically over performed and 1 was a dry dud. 

You guys get a lot more upslope there from the olympics then I do up here but there should be something tomorrow.  There will be a strong west wind down the strait early in the day with the low level out flow kicking in late afternoon. Could see some convergence over the strait pushing from east to west late afternoon though the evening.  Probably persistent light upslope snow through Friday along the olympics. 

[Phishy Wx]

Just embrace a 'potentially' record breaking Arctic Blast in a Super Nino in a warming climate.  that alone prevents this from a bust, at least from an east side perspective.  I know people on here are nuts for 3' of pepto snow, but enjoy what's in front of us

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

to be this close and see this much change is just insane.

[TT-SEA]

Imagine the model chaos if the 18Z GFS shifts way north again!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We are so fuckked...lol

RIP

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Just embrace a 'potentially' record breaking Arctic Blast in a Super Nino in a warming climate.  that alone prevents this from a bust, at least from an east side perspective.  I know people on here are nuts for 3' of pepto snow, but enjoy what's in front of us

Great post. Couldn’t agree more.

[Mid Valley Duck]

18z NAM. End frame, snow totals, sleet totals and freezing rain totals.


 

[Front Ranger]

Wow, the NAM gives a swath of the southern Willamette Valley around a foot.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife never watches football.  The last game she actually watched was the Super Bowl in 2015 and that was mostly for the commercials.   But I just texted her the news and she responded with "Wow!!"  Just by osmosis living in the same house with me and our two sons she accidentally knows lots of things about the Seahawks.   

Should add that my 80-year old mother just unprompted texted me about Pete Carroll.  Then secondarily asked about snow tomorrow in Bellingham.   

[MWG]

We got to 40F an hour ago now back to 37F with light rain. I don't expect much from now till tomorrow morning.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and mid 40s here this afternoon.  Tomorrow evening will feel like a bit of a shock. 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Just embrace a 'potentially' record breaking Arctic Blast in a Super Nino in a warming climate.  that alone prevents this from a bust, at least from an east side perspective.  I know people on here are nuts for 3' of pepto snow, but enjoy what's in front of us

Yeah, we already have seen that plenty of lowland snowfall is still very possible in this warming climate. The big question for some people is if a top tier blast was still possible.

That being said...snow is what brings people here.

[Prairiedog]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Just embrace a 'potentially' record breaking Arctic Blast in a Super Nino in a warming climate.  that alone prevents this from a bust, at least from an east side perspective.  I know people on here are nuts for 3' of pepto snow, but enjoy what's in front of us

Couple more weeks and the frogs will be chorusing.  Just sayin.  Last year there was no standing water in some of the runoff ditches, small ponds and other places the frogs would gather to mate.  We might actually have some water this time around.  We'll see. 

[ShawniganLake]

EPS and operational bottom out YVR 850mb at -19.5C.  21st century benchmark is -17C, I believe. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Imagine the model chaos if the 18Z GFS shifts way north again!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Couple more weeks and the frogs will be chorusing.  Just sayin.  Last year there was no standing water in some of the runoff ditches, small ponds and other places the frogs would gather to mate.  We might actually have some water this time around.  We'll see. 

Wow they do not start here till April.

[Doinko]

NAM looks similar to one of the ICON runs yesterday, surface lows tracking across Oregon with heavy snow.

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, we already have seen that plenty of lowland snowfall is still very possible in this warming climate. The big question for some people is if a top tier blast was still possible.

That being said...snow is what brings people here.

Do we know what the qualifications are for a "top tier blast?" I mean are we looking for a subfreezing high all the way to Eugene or low temperatures in the teens over the same area or 850mb temps of -15C at SEA or what? I think we should establish a uniform set of statistics so that when it verifies we can highlight it instead of having a debate a couple years down the line about whether this was "top tier" or not.

[Randyc321]

Got some friends in the back yard…

 

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow they do not start here till April.

Frogs were chorusing us on a hike here just last weekend.  Maybe we have different frogs up here, I’m not sure. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

to be this close and see this much change is just insane.

 

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Imagine the model chaos if the 18Z GFS shifts way north again!  

Like many women, Mother Nature is fascinating, beautiful, but extremely frustrating at times.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

to be this close and see this much change is just insane.

Well today is only Wednesday…There is still time for a big shift! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, we already have seen that plenty of lowland snowfall is still very possible in this warming climate. The big question for some people is if a top tier blast was still possible.

That being said...snow is what brings people here.

Given some of the insane cold spells across the country and other parts of the world in the last few years... it seems silly to assume it wasn't possible here any more.   Of course it is.   Record breaking cold can and will happen in a warming climate.   There might even be a case to be made for more extreme cold events as part of more extreme patterns overall.    Sort of a hollow victory though because it doesn't change anything.  

[Doinko]

ICON is a good shift north

 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

WRF also still

18z GRAF is further south with the moisture but still makes it to PDX. It’s shows 2.4” of snow and no ice which is good. Look at those east winds!  

[Weiner Warrior]

It's not too late for a Seattle landfall!!

[Olive1010]

@DoinkoAre we just waiting on Friday night for the possible snow/ice accumulating? Or will any surface lows be coming in before? (Sorry, I'm pretty busy right now.)

[Doinko]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

@DoinkoAre we just waiting on Friday night for the possible snow/ice accumulating? Or will any surface lows be coming in before? (Sorry, I'm pretty busy right now.)

I think Friday afternoon/evening is our earliest shot

[Requiem]

24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We are so fuckked...lol

Gonna stock up on groceries...

[TT-SEA]

Wow... two models now shifting north today.    Tide might be turning again.   And the GFS respect will be off the charts!  

[Doinko]

Quick 5" with the first system

 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Do we know what the qualifications are for a "top tier blast?" I mean are we looking for a subfreezing high all the way to Eugene or low temperatures in the teens over the same area or 850mb temps of -15C at SEA or what? I think we should establish a uniform set of statistics so that when it verifies we can highlight it instead of having a debate a couple years down the line about whether this was "top tier" or not.

I think there is pretty wide consensus on here that Dec 1998 was the last top tier regional blast. That will look a bit different in different places, of course, but I think if we have widespread temps close to that, this would be categorized as "top tier".

[Mid Valley Duck]

Seattle folks have lost the Spire