January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Blizzard777]

Dew Points and the boundary 

[TT-SEA]

06Z EPS mean and control run coming now. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Blizzard777 said:

Dew Points and the boundary 

Dewpoint is a great way to track this thing.  

[umadbro]

7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Mark loves this model. Over 10” here.

The graf is really good for snow in the valley. 

[GHweatherChris]

Doesn't feel like the arctic boundary is going to be in too big of a hurry to move through.

[The Blob]

Ugh, Fox12 is playing infomercials instead of the news...

[TT-SEA]

New 3km NAM looks even more sparse for today...

[Prairiedog]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The best strong Nino January I can think of is Jan 1973, and that was pretty weak.  This is quite exceptional from that point of view.

Dec. 8, 1972 Salem hit -12f if I'm not mistaken.  El Nino year I bellieve.  I lived in La Grande that year coaching the JV college team and getting my teaching degree, post grad.  It was a cold winter there.  Student taught in Elgin.  Coldest temp I've been in, -18f

[TacomaWx]

Probably will see a wind flip up in whatcom county in the next hour or two. 

[TacomaWx]

Whether we get snow or not today I am pretty excited about this. In my lifetime I’ve never seen an arctic outbreak on the potential scale of this one. I do think that it’ll snow in the next few days also still…but either way this is going to be fun to see. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some -40s in Northern BC this morning and a -50 at Watson Lake in southern Yukon. 

[ajreich]

Portland NWS AFD page is down

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ajreich said:

Portland NWS AFD page is down

I noticed the Seattle one was down too when I tried to check it a bit ago. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

57 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Mark loves this model. Over 10” here.

Wind gust not backing down. Even got stronger, up to 52 mph now.

[ajreich]

Uhh I guess timberline got a bunch of snow

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total precip now through 4a Saturday on the HRRR. 

Total snow: It has snow starting all the way to Eugene, the last frame that has switch to ZR up to the Lane/Linn county line with the snow extending to about Wilsonville in the South Metro. 

It shows Seattle going below freezing about 4-5pm today, PDX around 9a tomorrow, and Salem 3-4p tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Wind gust not backing down. Even got stronger, up to 52 mph now.

I think the biggest snow totals will be just south of the gorge outflow BLAST zone. 

[ShawniganLake]

23F in Hope. 35F in Abbotsford!

[Prairiedog]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Inversions could do the trick.

I have some friends down the hill from you in Silverton. What's your thoughts for them?  More ice than snow?  Or, will they stay cold enough for snow this weekend.  They will get warm nosed as will I but that looks to come later for once. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I noticed the Seattle one was down too when I tried to check it a bit ago. 

Would be a great time for the radar to go down for 3 days!  

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM is south of its 00Z run... would be a non-event for Portland as well.   But its the NAM.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM drops Seattle below freezing between 2-3p today. PDX 7-8a tomorrow. Salem 2-3p. Corvallis/Albany between 5-7p. Eugene before midnight. 

Other impressions:

- Slightly slightly less aggressive with low level cold through tomorrow evening (Than the 06z run.). However by early Saturday morning its the same if not a few miles south. 

- It looks like an area of snow develops along the arctic front from about Albany to Woodburn tomorrow afternoon. Then as the first low comes in it snows from just north of Eugene to just north of Salem (The precip does not extend any further north.). 

- Saturday morning is essentially dry. The 2nd low brings heavy ice from Eugene to just north of Salem before transitioning to snow from about Albany to the South Metro area.  

- Moisture never makes it further north than the south PDX metro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM is south of its 00Z run... would be a non-event for Portland as well.   But its the NAM.   

 

Can you post the snow map for the 24 hours ending Saturday 12Z.

[Phishy Wx]

you guys still freakin out?

Embrace the HISTORIC COLD

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can you post the snow map for the 24 hours ending Saturday 12Z.

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NAM drops Seattle below freezing between 2-3p today. PDX 7-8a tomorrow. Salem 2-3p. Corvallis/Albany between 5-7p. Eugene before midnight. 

Other impressions:

- Slightly slightly less aggressive with low level cold through tomorrow evening (Than the 06z run.). However by early Saturday morning its the same if not a few miles south. 

- It looks like an area of snow develops along the arctic front from about Albany to Woodburn tomorrow afternoon. Then as the first low comes in it snows from just north of Eugene to just north of Salem (The precip does not extend any further north.). 

- Saturday morning is essentially dry. The 2nd low brings heavy ice from Eugene to just north of Salem before transitioning to snow from about Albany to the South Metro area.  

- Moisture never makes it further north than the south PDX metro. 

Not sure I buy that precip shield being that far south. First low comes in around Florence, second around Coos Bay.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Would be a great time for the radar to go down for 3 days!  

Lol we will see what happens. Looks like the AFD is back up. Sounds like they’re predicting an inch or less along the Arctic front unless it stalls out somewhere. The gradient between Olympia and Bellingham should be strong enough to prevent it stalling though. They also mentioned they think overrunning moisture should reach Snohomish county Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Thanks. I just noticed that's the period that has more snow for the WV. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

38 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Probably will see a wind flip up in whatcom county in the next hour or two. 

Had precip move through at some point during the night, looks like it fell as wet snow.  It then melted, and is now frozen on my back deck.  My weather sensor, which is 150 feet off the ground by @Phil measurement standards (its actually about 15-20 feet) is currently measuring 34 degrees, and waiting for the wind flip

[Phishy Wx]

I'm here for it....

 

Friday through Saturday night: The arrival of the Arctic airmass will bring much drier air into the region. This will result in decreasing chances for additional snowfall, but will deliver bitterly bitterly cold winds. Temperatures could be record breaking for some of the coldest on record and also coldest record highs. Northern mountain valleys may not even warm up above zero on Friday and Saturday with single digit highs common across the rest of the lowlands. Talk about cold! Low temperatures will be below the zero mark both tonight and especially Friday night. This is extreme cold that we are looking at over the next few days. Wind chills of 20-30 below zero will be common as well down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench and out across the exposed areas of the basin. Frostbite can set in in as little as 10-20 minutes with temperatures and wind chills this cold. /SVH

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I noticed the GFS keeps highs for much of the WV below freezing even on Tuesday now. Looks like EUG warms before midnight though, 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol we will see what happens. Looks like the AFD is back up. Sounds like they’re predicting an inch or less along the Arctic front unless it stalls out somewhere. The gradient between Olympia and Bellingham should be strong enough to prevent it stalling though. They also mentioned they think overrunning moisture should reach Snohomish county Saturday. 

Snohomish County on Saturday seems like its just a CYA for them.   That is highly unlikely now.  

[van city]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM is south of its 00Z run... would be a non-event for Portland as well.   But its the NAM.   

 

It's not just the NAM. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

New 3km NAM looks even more sparse for today...

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snohomish County on Saturday seems like its just a CYA for them.   That is highly unlikely now.  

CYA? Either way I’d be surprised if anything made it north of Seattle either. Even here is pretty borderline. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON does not look inspiring for today either.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

CYA? Either way I’d be surprised if anything made it north of Seattle either. Even here is pretty borderline. 

"cover your a*s"

You young kids.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

"cover your a*s"

You young kids.  

Oh lol never heard that acronym. Either way will be interesting. I’m holding out optimism for something to happen here. We’re at the watch the radar stage now! 

[Doinko]

GRAF still looks good

 

[Skagit Weather]

DP already dropped to 25F here about an hour ago, although it's currently back up to 28F with a westerly wind. It's really going to take a miracle to see any snow here. I don't think a single model shows it at this point, but I haven't given up hope yet.