January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Blizzard777]

Up cleaning my nest cam lens .  Here’s a shot of that small CZ band just to my north and looks like precipitation is falling from it 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Time to start watching in real time, Hopefully we will see some action as the leading edge of the trough gets to the coast of bc. I'm already surprised how fast the radar is waking up.

Yeah, encouraging to already see signs of CZ firing up.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Just now, Timmy said:

I think this really will be an event where we won’t know. I think areas like west Clark county, Columbia and Washington counties will be the big winners with the right amount of cold and moisture without the wind. I think the system will be more on the juicy side as it interacts with the Arctic front

Right on the SW edge of Mult/Washco county line here, curious to see how strong the winds are in our little microclimate. Forecasted gust of 50 is bananas. Fully expect widespread outages.

[Doinko]

Just now, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Right on the SW edge of Mult/Washco county line here, curious to see how strong the winds are in our little microclimate. Forecasted gust of 50 is bananas. Fully expect widespread outages.

Same here, edge of Multnomah and Washington county. Should be some crazy winds coming up!

[Deweydog]

Oroville trending south.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=OVLW1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow just started here in Port orchard.

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Low about to make landfall Saturday 4pm.

There is almost perfect agreement now in terms of where the low goes, still a little variation on how far north the precip shield extends though. The track is looking pretty classic for us though IMO.

[Prairiedog]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I live 4 miles south of the Marion/Linn county line. It'll be interesting to see the mix I get. Widely varies by the model you are looking at. It does seem like with the first surface low it will be mostly or all snow. The second low it seems like it'll be no snow and all sleet/freezing rain.

How would Silverton factor in?  Snow turning to ice?

[GHweatherChris]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

looks like more of a downslope off the Olympics and then picking up moisture off the sound.  Sound effect if you will

NW flow currently off the ocean.

[Phishy Wx]

If there is one thing about arctic air, it will wring the atmosphere of ANY available moisture. so i'd say snow showers are pretty much a given depending on orographics, proximity to water, etc.  and near term models struggle mightily with this

[ajreich]

This is why I hate the NBM sometimes: this is the model result distribution, not the actual probability of snow occurring, which is much greater given the likely model errors. I think there’s a much better than zero likelihood they bust on the high side somewhere between Salem and Kelso given everything. But you wouldn’t know it from reading the AFD
 

[GHweatherChris]

Getting alot of moisture out this way, no matter what happens the roads are gonna be a mess later on this evening.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Light snow.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yeah a lake effect band sat over Heavenly for a bit when the flow turned northerly and enhanced their totals. They really needed it. 

 

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I think this really will be an event where we won’t know. I think areas like west Clark county, Columbia and Washington counties will be the big winners with the right amount of cold and moisture without the wind. I think the system will be more on the juicy side as it interacts with the Arctic front

I'm liking where I'm sitting, definitely going to get near blizzard winds though

[FrozenBites]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Getting alot of moisture out this way, no matter what happens the roads are gonna be a mess later on this evening.

Would it bother to post the 925's page? Would appreciate it.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Looks like some sort of a convergence zone is setting up.  Might get a little snow on the ground if it is persistent.

[GHweatherChris]

 

[TacomaWx]

Down to 19F in hope. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, clipper_range said:

Would it bother to post the 925's page? Would appreciate it.

There ya go

[Deweydog]

Just now, Doinko said:

I'm liking where I'm sitting, definitely going to get near blizzard winds though

You may be in the best spot out of all of us.

[FrozenBites]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

 

Thank you.

[Winterdog]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Currently 34.1 dry degrees out. It’s crazy how much sleep I have lost during the last two weeks waiting for this day to finally come…
Dry.

Bare ground going into this whole thing…Will be bare ground coming out of this thing…Unbelievable.
 

Pretend you are in Saskatchewan out in the prairie somewhere where often the arctic blasts come through with no snow.  The ground is brown and dusty, the grass lays down with the wind and the cold is relentless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

How would Silverton factor in?  Snow turning to ice?

I would say yes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Heavy snow moving into Tim land

[MossMan]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

When does this happen? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got a quick inch this morning. Sitting just above freezing. No school delays!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picking up a generator for my dad who is in full panic mode. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When does this happen? 

Last night.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Light snow in Spokane...  Looks like we are on the edge of the arctic front boundary. Not expecting much as the band appears to be narrow, but hoping for an inch.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Heavy snow moving into Tim land

So far it hasn’t been that heavy I’m just on the other side of the mountain from Tim. Could get close to stickage if the precip rates start to pick up. 

[MossMan]

My wife just texted and said it’s snowing at her work in Everett. 
Full sun up here but WOW the roads flash froze and was a skating rink!! 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Last night.

Figures. Was rain here. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Heavy snow moving into Tim land

No sir.    Just a few tiny flakes.   Temp is still 36 as well.   ECMWF insists on burst of SW wind and temp going up to around 40 by noon or 1 and then dropping.

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm liking where I'm sitting, definitely going to get near blizzard winds though

Yeah, I think Washington county is a solid spot for this one. 

I'm west of you and not too far away from the eastern slopes of the coast range, my spot usually struggles with shadowing in those cold showery patterns but I get some decent upslope from these east wind driven events. Can work out pretty nicely here to squeeze out a bit more juice. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

So far it hasn’t been that heavy I’m just on the other side of the mountain from Tim. Could get close to stickage if the precip rates start to pick up. 

I think it's even lighter on this side of the ridge.   You have to look really closely to see there are a few tiny flakes.

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

2004?  yeah that's the last time Spokane has gone below -20

I believe 2004, yes

[TT-SEA]

Live view from NB.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Another snowy GFS run for PDX. 12z shows 16” snow with temps in the teens Saturday. They never lose the east wind so when moisture arrives again the middle of next week it shows some ice.

 

[Skagit Weather]

It didn’t get colder than 38F last night, but the small pond outside already has a decent layer of ice on it. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. DP is down to 23F though.