January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like it’s backed away from Port Angeles. Wonder how much snow @Port Angeles Foothiller scored.

Not sure if this is the same person but, 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty legit cold snap shown on the 18z EPS mean.  Good duration of well below to much below normal temps.

[Meatyorologist]

What in the goddamn GEM???!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then we have next week.   We are talking about 6 days away here.  Not 2 weeks.  What is going on with the models??

Now... the GEM quickly flips after this.   It seems fairly certain the end result will be the same as the block lifts away... but there is a short window next week of total model chaos.  

GEM vs GFS.

Gem shows a huge snow storm Wednesday for around Seattle north

[TacomaWx]

Just a little bit of snow on the cars here so far…but being patient! 

[Meatyorologist]

Storm king type wet snowfall on the GEM

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy... either that or a big ridge.  Who knows??   Just 5.5 days away.   

This pattern is off the charts crazy.  The models are having a hard time with it.

[Slushy Inch]

Yeah 3 hour snow totals. Nutty. Bury me.

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What in the goddamn GEM???!!

Manifested!!!

[Phishy Wx]

Tuesday night/wednesday storm may be the Regional event we've been clamouring for

[MV_snow]

Forgot how much fun arctic front snowfall is. Snow is very light and crystal like. Accumulating quickly. Not the typical wet slop we get. Radar indicates we could get close to 1” here which is enough for me heading into the blast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still snowing but getting lighter. Maybe 1/2 inch.

[TT-SEA]

Tracking the Portland storm... all GEFS member for Saturday afternoon.  Unfortunately they don't have a panel like this for sleet.

[LowerGarfield]

At some point, my area was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning until tomorrow at 6am....This has been a great day so far. Still snowing. I bet my son still has school...selfishly I want to sleep in :D.

[Christensen87]

How are some models showing this mid week, and GFS, nada? I’m believing GFS as per usual lol, but let’s go GEM! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tonight's gem spread the weekend precipitation much further north. Some light snow from Seattle south this weekend is very possible,  Olympia is a real good chance.

[Kayla]

GFS going places on day 9/10...haha.

[snow_wizard]

There's a good slug of moisture showing up in Mason County now.  Hard to say who the winner is going to be when it gets east of Puget Sound.

[SouthHillFrosty]

27.9 and light snow. Temp is dropping but snow is melting. About a trace so far 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kayla said:

GFS going places on day 9/10...haha.

The interesting thing is most models have shown something big somewhere in week 2 the last couple of days.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

GFS going places on day 9/10...haha.

Gfs is a very confused model. About 4 days too late

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

GFS going places on day 9/10...haha.

It has been for a few runs now

[LowerGarfield]

47 minutes ago, HotMessyBieber said:

Here's to hoping we score this weekend! I may have (over?) promised the toddler that we are getting snow. 

I hope you get it! During an apparent rug pull portion in the forecast last week, my 7 year old's teacher promised them snow this week then I had to explain to him that snow is hard to forecast. But we've certainly had plenty!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Old reliable has near same location but a much larger precip field. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Snowfall quite light with just a trace on roofs/cars. Not confident I'll get much more than that here tonight. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Coming down good in South Hill from what was sent to me 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

There's a good slug of moisture showing up in Mason County now.  Hard to say who the winner is going to be when it gets east of Puget Sound.

Dry air is spreading in from the north.   Bands to the north are drying up in favor new bands farther south.   That stuff is Mason County is headed into the Cascades down there and not up here.

[Christensen87]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The interesting thing is most models have shown something big somewhere in week 2 the last couple of days.

Not CFS…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Forgot how much fun arctic front snowfall is. Snow is very light and crystal like. Accumulating quickly. Not the typical wet slop we get. Radar indicates we could get close to 1” here which is enough for me heading into the blast.

It’s the best snow, no question. Pity the amounts are on the scanty side this time. But better scanty than none!

20.5˚F

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I finally have a good cell headed right at me.  Things are changing so fast on the radar right now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There's a good slug of moisture showing up in Mason County now.  Hard to say who the winner is going to be when it gets east of Puget Sound.

Drying out from the north rapidly now. That was it for central sound and you can see the arctic front convergence down by Olympia 

[DeepFriedEgg]

I haven't been tracking weather for long but this is the worst I have seen models perform. They are not even in the same neighborhood 5 days out.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gem shows a huge snow storm Wednesday for around Seattle north

Perhaps I won’t be skunked after all! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gfs is a very confused model. About 4 days too late

Times like this its best to rely on the EPS.   Its been really consistent.   And it also shows that window around day 6 and 7.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Drying out from the north rapidly now. That was it for central sound and you can see the arctic front convergence down by Olympia 

Looks like there’s one last shot for something here with the cells to the west. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Times like this its best to rely on the EPS.   Its been really consistent.   And it also shows that window around day 6 and 7.

I was about to say. Would be best to lean on ensembles at this point. Especially EPS

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Forgot how much fun arctic front snowfall is. Snow is very light and crystal like. Accumulating quickly. Not the typical wet slop we get. Radar indicates we could get close to 1” here which is enough for me heading into the blast.

That batch mostly missed me, but this next one looks good.

[bainbridgekid]

34 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Officially ended up with just a dusting here in DT Everett. Drive about 5 minutes south and there’s about a half an inch and everything looks beautiful. 

I just have to remember this is my fault that I bought this place without taking snow into consideration. This is a mistake I will not make again in my lifetime Already told my wife certain requirements for our next place (East of Highway 9 / I-405 and above 500’.)

It’s amazing how much more snow I get here in South Everett at 500 feet than downtown Everett does 5 miles away. I’ve had nearly 90 inches since I moved here in 2018 and am sure downtown Everett has had half that. So many times in the last several years I’ve had 3-6” with roads covered and they had less than an inch. 
 

When I bought my house I told my realtor I wouldn’t look at places under 400 feet elevation and she thought I was joking.

The way I look at it snow events are already so rare around here that being constantly disappointed by being on the low end of everyone around you would just be too draining mentally during what should be the happiest weather events of the year. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks like I finally have a good cell headed right at me.  Things are changing so fast on the radar right now.

Are you looking at the bigger loop?   

I am under a green blob that just passed over your area and there are just a few flurries now.   Dry air is working in from the north even out here.  

[Snownerd3000]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy... either that or a big ridge.  Who knows??   Just 5.5 days away.   

Model riding season been weird