January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

The funny thing is none of the numbers were ever all that extreme for here. It was just for a while there in the beginning that the models thought the PACNW was Montana.

It's basically what would happen if the Rockies and Cascades weren't there.

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think getting 2014-15 and 2015-16 back to back did a number on the Niño reputation. Both were highly prototypical for the PNW.

Yeah, Ninos definitely constitute the worst of the worst (Nyberg reference) for us. Way more variance than with other ENSO states and when they're bad they're often horrific.

But also plenty of historic precedent for huge events in the region to evolve from Nino winters. Usually weaker Ninos and usually earlier in the season. But then our coldest March in the last 150 years also came from a Nino in 1897. And our coldest February this century so far came from a Nino in 2019. And one of the strongest Ninos on record also produced a ton of all-time record lows in Oregon in 1972.

So ultimately the "rules" about ENSO behavior can all get flushed away pretty quickly when blocking decides to get going.

Edited January 12 by BLI snowman

[The Blob]

Faaaaaat flakes IMBY.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The funny thing is none of the numbers were ever all that extreme for here. It was just for a while there in the beginning that the models thought the PACNW was Montana.

Yup!

[Timmy]

i woke up and it was 35, down to 27.3 now

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, Ninos definitely constitute the worst of the worst (Nyberg reference) for us. Way more variance than with other ENSO states.

But also plenty of historic precedent for huge events in the region to evolve from Nino winters. Usually weaker Ninos and usually earlier in the season. But then our coldest March in the last 150 years also came from a Nino in 1897. And our coldest February this century so far came from a Nino in 2019. And one of the strongest Ninos on record also produced a ton of all-time record lows in Oregonin 1972.

So ultimately the "rules" about ENSO behavior can all get flushed away pretty quickly when blocking decides to get going.

It’s like playing with dice loaded against you. Sometimes the dice come up favourably anyhow.

[Gradient Keeper]

32.9 with off/on flurries. Light N to E wind. Mmmm, hot chocolate with mini-marshmallows melted in it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I mean, wine dine 1969 big snow in EUG was a moderate nino. Really need a -10c 850s or better upper-level airmass to get here again. Feels like it doesn't happen super often.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

All the way up to 39 degrees here.

You were right to hold off updating that profile pic.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

18 minutes ago, iFred said:

Too bad Sean Nyberg wont come back to talk about the 850mb temp potential.

It's gonna be tough to top 33 weenies.  That record may stand for quite some time.

[Doinko]

Down to freezing! The East wind hasn't even arrived.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Portland metro area gradually seeing their dewpoints drop. Should be a quick shot out to the west valley soon. Yamhill County will begin to see the Arctic boundary soon.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya didn’t hit our lowest temp so far until around 10-10:30 when we hit 14 now it bumped up 15 which is crazy for 11:30. 

Crazy.   I think it's warmer out here for the same reasons being mentioned down south.   We need the east wind to bring in even colder air. 

[Blizzard777]

I have to say once again from this almost old timer. I never watch the news anymore let alone weather segments unless I submit a photo to the weather department to share. 
I get all weather info from you all aside from running the models myself (in which you have taught me to do).  You all our the best and again love the mix of different characters here. 
That’s right , we’re into adding decimal season now

20.3 and temp still dropping  with a dew point of 2 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Very Cold and Sunny day at my place in Spokane.

Love it!!

 

[Cold Snap]

Pretty amazing how it’s almost noon and it’s still only 18 degrees with no snow on the ground. This is a pretty impressive airmass.

[TT-SEA]

Control run with a significant shift north too. 

[GHweatherChris]

Did get down to 23 here this morning, up to 24, we did get down to 19 one night in December though under a meh air mass.

Edited January 12 by GHweatherChris

[SpaceRace22]

I just did some back of the napkin calculations, and PDX is getting a mondo surprise tomorrow. Fortunately, I am MUCH smarter than the models, and I have determined that their resolution isn't enough to fully take into account the Gorge outflows's halting effect on the WAA at the mid levels. Wilsonville north will stay all snow tomorrow, and the precipitation shield will extend all the way to Kelso tonight, many hours sooner than modeled.

Also, everyone south of Seattle gets at least a little snow tomorrow. You're WELCOME

 

 

Edit- Also, this post is meant as an entirely unserious joke. I keep getting misinterpreted, and my intent is purely just to make a silly shitpost here and not to hurt any feelings. Xoxo

[SunAndSnow]

Wind shifted, went from 38°-34° in the last 45 minutes, flurries just started! Surprised it reached me in south metro so fast?

[Dave]

22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yeah...radar down here is nonexistent. Unfortunately the northern portion of "The Empty West" is pretty much a forgotten part of the country in terms of weather.

Good news! There's many details that aren't in the article such as who will have access to the data and if they will partner with the NWS, but a private company is adding 4 dopplers to Oregon.

https://www.kezi.com/news/new-company-looks-to-add-doppler-radars-to-oregon-to-fix-the-radar-gap/article_73effdc2-b10d-11ee-b5eb-2b69b0b1a51e.html

[sherwoodor]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I just did some back of the napkin calculations, and PDX is getting a mondo surprise tomorrow. Fortunately, I am MUCH smarter than the models, and I have determined that their resolution isn't enough to fully take into account the Gorge outflows's halting effect on the WAA at the mid levels. Wilsonville north will stay all snow tomorrow, and the precipitation shield will extend all the way to Kelso tonight, many hours sooner than modeled.

Also, everyone south of Seattle gets at least a little snow tomorrow. You're WELCOME

from your fingertips to Horus' ears... 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I just did some back of the napkin calculations, and PDX is getting a mondo surprise tomorrow. Fortunately, I am MUCH smarter than the models, and I have determined that their resolution isn't enough to fully take into account the Gorge outflows's halting effect on the WAA at the mid levels. Wilsonville north will stay all snow tomorrow, and the precipitation shield will extend all the way to Kelso tonight, many hours sooner than modeled.

Also, everyone south of Seattle gets at least a little snow tomorrow. You're WELCOME

Can I see the napkin?

[Deweydog]

Almost noon and Omak is still running a degree deficit. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Almost noon and Omak is still running a degree deficit. 

with N winds gusting to 40....ouch

[The Blob]

Snow has tapered off for now. Does it mean that sweet cold air is coming?

[ShawniganLake]

15F here at almost noon.  Could end up with the lowest daytime high here since the December 1990 blast. 

[Phishy Wx]

holding on to 0 ATM

sub zero high off the table.  still cold though

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, Ninos definitely constitute the worst of the worst (Nyberg reference) for us. Way more variance than with other ENSO states and when they're bad they're often horrific.

But also plenty of historic precedent for huge events in the region to evolve from Nino winters. Usually weaker Ninos and usually earlier in the season. But then our coldest March in the last 150 years also came from a Nino in 1897. And our coldest February this century so far came from a Nino in 2019. And one of the strongest Ninos on record also produced a ton of all-time record lows in Oregon in 1972.

So ultimately the "rules" about ENSO behavior can all get flushed away pretty quickly when blocking decides to get going.

I think if I were tasked with describing +ENSO tendencies in the PNW, I would say:

1) Less temporal pattern change (more persistence in weather patterns)

2) A significant bias towards +PNA

Those two rules are really all you need. El Niño is usually features either BSF or inversion patterns for a good chunk of the winter, but when the Arctic air gets going, it can stick for a while.

[TT-SEA]

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

[Snowdome]

Wooo just got a lot colder here in Oregon City. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

Is this official!?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Almost noon and Omak is still running a degree deficit. 

Still -14 at my cabin. Just insane.

[LowerGarfield]

My son wanted to go sledding again today but after about 5-10 mins of walking/gliding in the sled, son said he was getting cold and wanted to go home just before reaching the golf hill. I could certainly feel the difference between sledding last night at 20-25F vs now with 10 degrees and negative windchill. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is this official!?

All but done.   There would be no public word if it wasn't going to happen.    

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

Holy shitt. He left for Bama?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

The only cool sports story i have is my neighbor played for the new York jets back in the early 70's.  ASnds played for arizona state.

Edited January 12 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

All but done.   There would be no public word if it wasn't going to happen.    

This will be a big mistake on his and UWs part.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

Already covered this in the appropriate thread.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The only cool sports story i have is my neighbor played for the new York jets back in the early 70's. 

Joe Namath??