January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Doinko]

ICON and RDPS are a slight shift north, bit more sleet for PDX unfortunately

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

The 18z ICON already has precip dramatically further north at hour 24. TBD how this works out as far as the snow to sleet ratio in Portland.

Looks like PDX gets skunked in the QPF and precip type departments.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Looks like PDX gets skunked in the QPF and precip type departments.

Yeah, looks like it thinks the east wind will nom nom nom at least half of PDX's precip it would have had otherwise.

[Doinko]

GRAF looks fine for PDX

[SnowySeeker50]

18f with trace sticking around still. Roads will need a wash after all this is done from all the brine truck runs  

[Winterdog]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 17.8 degrees 

DP at 3

The Everett car bumper snowballs are still in great shape at this temp! 
Oh and if you listened to my short video I posted of the coyote talking this morning, my neighbor sent me this video right afterwards and said it was looking down at our property while talking. 

IMG_2218.mov

I have those guys howling and yipping all the time.  I put in some real powerful floodlights I can control with my phone.  If they are close I flip them on and they take off usually.

[Snowdome]

10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Hard to trust the NAM when it shows cold rain tomorrow morning. It’s being too aggressive with the warm tongue. I’m confident we’ll see higher snow totals.

 

Still snowing in Oregon City right now so my confidence is growing. But I do expect plenty of ice at some point

[FroYoBro]

And just like that the east wind is already gusting to around 30 at Troutdale. I'm excited for the winds to show up. Still pretty calm here.

[westcoastexpat]

Liking the signal already for October 

[SpaceRace22]

18z RGEM

[Olive1010]

4 hours ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

 

I hope we get some good snow totals, and it’s not just killed away by the east winds

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Liking the signal already for October 

Tim is about to be with you to remind you this is SW flow and warmer than normal weather

[SpaceRace22]

Also sorry if this was already posted, but the 12z HRDPS is also good. Looks like the Canadians are confident that a triangle of roughly Scapoose, Salmon Creek, and Ridgefield could be the bullseye. Seems reasonable to me. Right in the sweet spot where there may be minimal changeover to sleet, and the east winds are close enough for maximum cold, but just far enough away to not eat up much precipitation. Hoping for a Feb 2023 redemption arc here.

[SpaceRace22]

27 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I already had my mother in law pull her car all the way into the carport. dumba** neighbor's tree overhangs the driveway badly. Should be illegal.

Fwiw if it's over your property, I'm pretty sure you guys can legally cut that branch down. Just don't touch any part of the tree that isn't over your property line.

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also sorry if this was already posted, but the 12z HRDPS is also good. Looks like the Canadians are confident that a triangle of roughly Scapoose, Salmon Creek, and Ridgefield could be the bullseye. Seems reasonable to me. Right in the sweet spot where there may be minimal changeover to sleet, and the east winds are close enough for maximum cold, but just far enough away to not eat up much precipitation. Hoping for a Feb 2023 redemption arc here.

I’m right on that 7.6 bulls eye

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

18z RGEM

With over an 1” of precipitation for most of PDX Metro. Looking good!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

With over an 1” of precipitation for most of PDX Metro. Looking good!

Hopefully the sleet can stay to our south though

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tim is about to be with you to remind you this is SW flow and warmer than normal weather

And the models can't figure out what will happen tomorrow... let alone 10 months from now. 

[MossMan]

Going to trend way north and give Winterdog and myself 2” tomorrow! 
 

Seriously though…If that sucker would have tracked through the Olympia area we would have been buried!!! So close yet way too far away 

[Doinko]

Down to 31. Still no proper east wind, it's cooling down from the north. Should stay below freezing for the next few days!

[Deweydog]

11 degree drop in two hours at Troutdale during midday ain’t too shabby.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Going to trend way north and give Winterdog and myself 2” tomorrow! 
 

Seriously though…If that sucker would have tracked through the Olympia area we would have been buried!!! So close yet way too far away 

It would of been one of the coldest snow storms of our lives, maybe the coldest. 

[GHweatherChris]

It's over, temp up to 27, we can't even pull off a sub 25 high temp anymore.

[SpaceRace22]

Not saying that I think this will for sure happen, but there is enormous potential for Portland to massively over perform tomorrow. Multiple potential "failure" modes here for the models.

If they are overdoing the WAA, Portland gets buried.

If they are overdoing the amount of precip that gets eaten up by the east winds, Portland gets buried.

If they are underdoing the extent of precip and it starts snowing in northern areas earlier than anticipated, Portland gets buried.

I'm especially keeping my eye on possibility #1. I think that not only are the models potentially overdoing the WAA, some of these soundings seem pretty sus to me. I think they are likely overestimating how much precip fully melts and turns to sleet as it passes through the very thin warm layer. Seems weird to me that 100% of the snow would melt after spending such a short amount of time passing through 32 or 33 degrees air. I bet in most spots around the PDX metro, it ends up being a sleet/snow mix at worst, or even just shitty icy snow, but still technically snow.

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully the sleet can stay to our south though

RGEM looks pretty ok to me. It shows this as sleet on the precip map but looking at the sounding at that time to me looks like a pretty clear snow sounding. Very minimal warm layer there. It shows the "best guess precip type" as sleet and snow but to me that looks pretty much like straight snow. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

back down to 0.  that's more like it.  hopefully that +1 was the high

[Sandy rocks]

If Portland area gets sleet, I just want it gone. I would rather it warm up than have that slop. This whole thing has been so disappointing. It changes from one minute to the next you don't know what to believe. Ice always seems to be Portland's default any more. There isn't even much snow today, just tiny little flakes. Onto spring as far as I am concerned.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

RGEM looks pretty ok to me. It shows this as sleet on the precip map but looking at the sounding at that time to me looks like a pretty clear snow sounding. Very minimal warm layer there. It shows the "best guess precip type" as sleet and snow but to me that looks pretty much like straight snow. 

 

Ah okay, thanks for this, that's definitely encouraging. With those precip amounts shown on the RGEM we could be looking at nearly a foot if all of it is snow

[WhoNeedsAC]

16 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also sorry if this was already posted, but the 12z HRDPS is also good. Looks like the Canadians are confident that a triangle of roughly Scapoose, Salmon Creek, and Ridgefield could be the bullseye. Seems reasonable to me. Right in the sweet spot where there may be minimal changeover to sleet, and the east winds are close enough for maximum cold, but just far enough away to not eat up much precipitation. Hoping for a Feb 2023 redemption arc here.

I'm in that zone, too. Bring it on!

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

RGEM looks pretty ok to me. It shows this as sleet on the precip map but looking at the sounding at that time to me looks like a pretty clear snow sounding. Very minimal warm layer there. It shows the "best guess precip type" as sleet and snow but to me that looks pretty much like straight snow. 

 

Yes absolutely. I could be wrong on this assumption, but I get the vibe that at least some of the models are pretty much built to calculate precip as either 100% sleet or 100% snow at any given moment and are struggling with the super borderline situation here where there may be *some* sleet, but not all sleet. These soundings do not seem like an atmosphere that is going to 100% melt all precipitation in that warm layer.

[OysterPrintout]

4 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

If Portland area gets sleet, I just want it gone. I would rather it warm up than have that slop. This whole thing has been so disappointing. It changes from one minute to the next you don't know what to believe. Ice always seems to be Portland's default any more. There isn't even much snow today, just tiny little flakes. Onto spring as far as I am concerned.

Too bad Nyberg went absolute hero mode cause this would be in the running normally. Should have waited for part 3 thread. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Arctic boundary crossing Woodburn, headed towards Salem.

[Olive1010]

Flurries right now 

[SpaceRace22]

On the bright side, sleet will probably take longer than snow to fully melt since it's so goddamn dense. We'll have little dirty piles of solid ice blocks to enjoy for the whole week!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

It's over, temp up to 27, we can't even pull off a sub 25 high temp anymore.

only 18 here in port orchard. Coldest this time a day since 1990. Amazing air mass that is still working its way to you.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

Flurries right now 

Same here, very light but nice to see

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

On the bright side, sleet will probably take longer than snow to fully melt since it's so goddamn dense. We'll have little dirty piles of solid ice blocks to enjoy for the whole week!!!

That’s why some call it tapioca snow!

[Winterdog]

18 degrees out there now, might end up being the high for the day.  I'm staring out my window looking at the 18 degrees, it doesn't look any different than 50 degrees, but for some reason I like it more.  I can't grab the 18 degrees or move some of it around.  It just sits there and does nothing!  I can't put my finger on why I like it more than 50 degrees.  I do like the 18 degrees but now its 19 and I don't like it as much.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

only 18 here in port orchard. Coldest this time a day since 1990. Amazing air mass that is still working its way to you.

twas a haha comment!

[sherwoodor]

10 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

If Portland area gets sleet, I just want it gone. I would rather it warm up than have that slop. This whole thing has been so disappointing. It changes from one minute to the next you don't know what to believe. Ice always seems to be Portland's default any more. There isn't even much snow today, just tiny little flakes. Onto spring as far as I am concerned.

brining back this old-y but gold-y...