January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

#2 and #16 are golden for Seattle!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

#2 is golden for Seattle!  

I was just typing that

[DeepFriedEgg]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That's a disturbing amount of spread for 24 hours out.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Something to keep in mind is that the ratios are going to be much, much higher than 10:1 tomorrow. Likely double that.

This will be true Midwest powder that we're looking at. Not too many times in our lives here that we can talk about snow in the mid teens but tomorrow is one of those days.

[Dave]

I saw plenty of diamond dust in Dec 2013 when the temps were slightly above 0. And yes, that does feel nice to say.

[Parrot]

Seems like most models are torching in clown range, probably a decent signal there

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Something to keep in mind is that the ratios are going to be much, much higher than 10:1 tomorrow. Likely double that.

This will be true Midwest powder that we're looking at. Not too many times in our lives here that we can talk about snow in the mid teens but tomorrow is one of those days.

I think you will score close to a foot.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I put the radar into a different mode to pick up the lighter moisture. As you can see by the blue circle, there is some precipitation over me. Yes, it's lightly snowing. You can see a heavier band forming over the Beaverton area moving East. Hopefully that will get to me. Oh, temps are a around 27 now and the snow that's falling is starting to accumulate 🌨

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Something to keep in mind is that the ratios are going to be much, much higher than 10:1 tomorrow. Likely double that.

This will be true Midwest powder that we're looking at. Not too many times in our lives here that we can talk about snow in the mid teens but tomorrow is one of those days.

I thought ratios would be slightly lower at times because of a slight warm layer, or should that not be too much of an issue, at least for north metro area?

[TacomaWx]

If any of y’all on the Puget sound want to see some action find a north facing beach. Some huge waves crashing on the beaches here right now. Super fun. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

That's a disturbing amount of spread for 24 hours out.

We don’t usually look at ensembles 24 hours out. So we probably aren’t used to looking at them. The spread probably isn’t all that unusual. 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Something to keep in mind is that the ratios are going to be much, much higher than 10:1 tomorrow. Likely double that.

This will be true Midwest powder that we're looking at. Not too many times in our lives here that we can talk about snow in the mid teens but tomorrow is one of those days.

So what is your prediction for snow totals across the metro? 

I think you're sitting in a pretty nice location for this. 

[jcmcgaffey]

26 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Ok I see you're in Oregon. The snow that's falling in the Seattle area right now is not diamond dust. 

I can confirm there are now clouds around and there has been a constant flurrying the last few hours. I have seen this before but only once or twice before. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Seems like most models are torching in clown range, probably a decent signal there

well it is a super nino, so

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 1:20 p.m. PST Friday 12 January 2024.

Discussion.

The following areas will have set or tied a daily minimum 
temperature record on January 12, 2024: 

ABBOTSFORD AREA 
New record of -15.4 
Old record of -12.8 set in 2007 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

BELLA BELLA AREA 
New record of -13.1 
Old record of -9.8 set in 2020 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

CLINTON AREA 
New record of -34.4 
Old record of -27 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

CRESTON AREA 
New record of -23.3 
Old record of -22.8 set in 1937 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

ESTEVAN POINT AREA 
New record of -6.7 
Old record of -6.7 set in 1909 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

HOPE AREA 
New record of -18.5 
Old record of -16.7 set in 1971 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

LYTTON AREA 
New record of -22.6 
Old record of -21.7 set in 1971 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

MALAHAT AREA 
New record of -13.4 
Old record of -8.4 set in 2007 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

NAKUSP AREA 
New record of -20 
Old record of -16.6 set in 1998 
Records in this area have been kept since 1966 

NANAIMO AREA 
New record of -10.4 
Old record of -10.3 set in 1998 
Records in this area have been kept since 1892 

PRINCETON AREA 
New record of -36.9 
Old record of -34.4 set in 1930 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

PUNTZI MOUNTAIN AREA 
New record of -48.4 
Old record of -40.6 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

QUALICUM BEACH AREA 
New record of -9 
Old record of -9 set in 2017 
Records in this area have been kept since 1962 

SECHELT AREA 
New record of -9 
Old record of -7.5 set in 1998 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

SQUAMISH AREA 
New record of -14 
Old record of -12.5 set in 2017 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

TATLAYOKO LAKE AREA 
New record of -40 
Old record of -34.4 set in 2007 
Records in this area have been kept since 1930 

TRAIL AREA 
New record of -20 
Old record of -20 set in 1998 
Records in this area have been kept since 1928 

VICTORIA AREA 
New record of -10.7 
Old record of -9.4 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

WATSON LAKE AREA 
New record of -49.4 
Old record of -49.4 set in 1972 
Records in this area have been kept since 1938 

WEST VANCOUVER AREA 
New record of -12.8 
Old record of -10.4 set in 1998 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

WHITE ROCK AREA 
New record of -14.4 
Old record of -11.7 set in 1950 
Records in this area have been kept since 1929 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I think you will score close to a foot.

Someone definitely will.

[TacomaWx]

Wow first time seeing the gfs. Gets all the way to my house. Starting to feel a bit better about tomorrow especially if the euro tracks a little more north. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We don’t usually look at ensembles 24 hours out. So we probably aren’t used to looking at them. The spread probably isn’t all that unusual. 

I usually do and it’s a little spread out…. But not to this extent. I expect the 00z to consolidate and nail Portland 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gradients have switched at PDX. They have nine hours to make it count and have a shot at a day in the teeeeeeens…

12 degrees to go. It’s gonna be tough.

[TT-SEA]

Its been almost dead calm out here today.   Suspect tomorrow will be juuuust a bit different.  

[GHweatherChris]

Seattle NWS afternoon crew decided to just discount recent trends, or they are all like nope, we ain't gonna do it, let night shift sort it out

[TacomaWx]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Seattle NWS afternoon crew decided to just discount recent trends, or they are all like nope, we ain't gonna do it, let night shift sort it out

I’m pretty sure you’re going to do absolutely horrible there tomorrow. Probably even worse here

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If any of y’all on the Puget sound want to see some action find a north facing beach. Some huge waves crashing on the beaches here right now. Super fun. 

I was just down at my local hang out walking the Sound….I also got very wet from those crashing waves!    C c cold! Love it though 

[bainbridgekid]

High-Res WRF shows a small area of 70 knot (80 mph) winds near Enumclaw tomorrow. Don't think I've ever seen it predict winds that strong there. Wind chills would be insane.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I’m pretty sure you’re going to do absolutely horrible there tomorrow. Probably even worse here

The next system will be sliding into northern Oregon on Saturday,
significantly reducing the chances for snow in western Washington,
but increasing them for the Portland area.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Someone definitely will.

Easy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12 degrees to go. It’s gonna be tough.

Seems impossible. You need to track potential flurries in the south sound. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Looks like we will stay in single digits IMBY topping out at 9.3F  Currently 9.0 with a DP of -10.  Winds are settling down ever so slightly but still blowing at a decent clip.  I went out to meet a friend for lunch, and that wind just cuts right through you.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems impossible. You need to track potential flurries in the south sound. 

WE will busy tracking snow up here to tomorrow.

[FroYoBro]

The little flurry storm is still just a couple miles north of me. GIVE ME MY FIRST FLAKES!!!!!!!!

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems impossible. You need to track potential flurries in the south sound. 

Sorry sir, we will stop talking about it. 

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Some of those have the shield almost reaching me…I have seen this story a few times in the past…Hmmm…

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems impossible. You need to track potential flurries in the south sound. 

I’m guessing I’ll hit teens by midnight. VUO probably will too. But PDX just sux.

[bainbridgekid]

SPC Mesoscale Analysis estimates -17 850mb temps for Seattle currently.

Coldest since . . . ?

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Temps as of 3pm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WE will busy tracking snow up here to tomorrow.

I ll never forgive all the plebs who cheerleaded that dumb slider into existence on the night of 12/27/21 messed up our best chance at significant radiational cooling for a pathetic inch of snow. 

Edited January 12 by SilverFallsAndrew

[runninthruda206]

Man it is ******* COLD outside 

[MossMan]

@iFred Saw your post from earlier but didn’t get a chance to respond right away and now I can’t find it to reply…Anyway I am working until 5 but then have family coming over to the house so I can’t make it. But possibly next week, would love to meet you and anyone else up this way that could join as well! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

SPC Mesoscale Analysis estimates -17 850mb temps for Seattle currently.

Coldest since . . . ?

 

Looks like I am around -19! Wow! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m guessing I’ll hit teens by midnight. VUO probably will too. But PDX just sux.

You know it’s going to take an act of GOD. We are talking about the station that didn’t go below 20 in December 2008. If they can do then this really is a different animal.