my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.
I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.
I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
1988 was pretty torchy here, but 2010 wasn't bad at all.
I do expect a very warm June/July here though, opposite of last year. That was the case in 2020, 2016, and 1988.
We need troughing/cold fronts for severe weather out here. It’s always warm/unstable enough for convection in the summer, but without shear/kinematics it can’t organize and sustain.
Worst thing for thunderstorm activity is sitting under a giant ridge, capped into oblivion. Had a lot of that in 2011 and 2016. Grass went entirely brown by mid-July both years, and trees were dropping leaves by late July. This place dies without summer downpours.
Models not backing down on the ridiculous amounts of rain early next week. This is quite rare for this time of year, and even more rare with the cold air mass that is being progged. Since 1945 the only years the Puget Sound region has had excessive precip like what is being shown in the May 20 through June 10 period are 1968, 1969, 1985, 1987, 1990, and 2001. Of those only 2001 was accompanied by seriously below normal temps like this will be. None of those years was a good ENSO match.
Still time for this to fall through, but it's looking like it's going to happen.
This. Could have been a spring torch to put 2016 to shame.
The +ENSO fears were borne out of recency bias (1980s - 2000s) when teleconnections were unfavorable during niños. In reality these things are state dependent, 1960s/70s niños expressed much differently.
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