January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS actually has more spread than the 18z.  What a weird situation.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like California gets some rain in the mid-range, but not much mountain snow and then it dries out in the long range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX is warming up a bit this evening, hope they don't score a new high before midnight. 

[SnowySeeker50]

High of 29 today, currently 22f

[GHweatherChris]

I would take some effing freezing rain at this point, what a horrible effing mess and waste of a cold airmass here.  Ya ya, the stat mongers are happy, I get that, but visually you can't see the cold....  LAME!!

 

[smerfylicious]

Throwback to better times

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Throwback to better times

 

We need to show 100 inches of snow to produce 10 inches 

[the_convergence_zone]

10 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It will happen again one day

 A 1880 event would be a national disaster. 

 

We got about halfway there in 2019. I would be worried about roof collapses if we got a full 5 feet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully we get some nice clearing tomorrow night so the valley can score one more night of cold lows. 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rooster Rock state park, Wahkeenah, Multnomah, Oneonta and Horsetail.

The amount of ice on the edge of the Columbia at Rooster Rock was the most I’ve ever seen personally. The falls and their creeks were choked with ice as well. Temps were around 15 out there this afternoon.

Those two waterfall bridge pics are incredible!

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I would take some effing freezing rain at this point, what a horrible effing mess and waste of a cold airmass here.  Ya ya, the stat mongers are happy, I get that, but visually you can't see the cold....  LAME!!

 

Did you not see my frozen waterfall pics earlier?!?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Strong signal for Alaskan ridging by the end of the month. Does it undercut or do we see goods being delivered to our region as we turn the page to February? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Strong signal for Alaskan ridging by the end of the month. Does it undercut or do we see goods being delivered to our region as we turn the page to February? 

I believe the bountiful sheep fields of Winter’s Hill could be blessed anew with a rich, decadent mantle of white.

[Andstorm]

1 hour ago, GobBluth said:

If the first low can't moderate the Columbia Basin cold pool the second low approaching Thursday will just renew the surface chill.

I was worried about this exact scenario but  haven’t seen/heard mentioned by NWS or local mets, so assuming it’s pretty unlikely. 

[bainbridgekid]

Tuesday night’s storm is a weird setup because the weaker low just kind of meanders North off the Coast and never comes ashore while the models with a stronger low punch it East more quickly and send it inland further South. Usually it’s the opposite.

[TT-SEA]

Highs tomorrow per ECMWF

[TT-SEA]

High temps Tuesday.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking PDX might stay a lot chillier late in the week than currently thought.  That offshore flow just keeps going.

It's going to be a very so low inch up as the mixing looks very minimal. Some real similarities to January 7-8, 2004. 

[TT-SEA]

Freezing rain totals

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Took the 2 mile trip over to North Falls. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Snow and high temps Wednesday.

[BLI snowman]

53 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Throwback to better times

 

6" total here, putting me solidly in the purple. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Snow and high temps Wednesday.

It will be interesting to see if PDX-EUG come within 10F of those highs. 

[TT-SEA]

Seen enough consistency now for an event 48 hours away.   Looks like snow chances in western WA are limited to Whatcom County.   The big question for areas south of Bellingham is when does freezing rain become regular rain?      

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Euro seems the most aggressive with getting that guy onshore right now, which obviously would increase mixing on Wednesday. But the the trend seems clear right now that that thing is limping along and gasping for air as more of an open wave, so I expect some further cutbacks here. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It will be interesting to see if PDX-EUG come within 10F of those highs. 

Agreed.   Seattle should be able to get to forecasted high though.   Here is wind map for noon... the wind through the Chehalis gap will easily mix out the Seattle area.   But might not be able to penetrate the cold layer down there.  

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seen enough consistency now for an event 48 hours away.   Looks like snow chances in western WA are limited to Whatcom County.   The big question for areas south of Bellingham is when does freezing rain become regular rain?      

Big snow potential for BC, especially out the valley. Temps look a bit marginal near the coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is somewhat intriguing. 

[MV_snow]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We're running 76 or 77 hours below freezing now.  Some nice stats with this.

We have an outside chance of pulling it off again tomorrow, too. Will be close.

[ShawniganLake]

Highs were much warmer up here today. 31.6F.  Currently 20.5F and it might end up a bit colder than last night as we’ve cleared the low clouds out of here.  

[AbbyJr]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Big snow potential for BC, especially out the valley. Temps look a bit marginal near the coast. 

I don't remember the last time I've seen this much snow modelled on the RGEM within 70hrs. Might not verify at that intensity bit still. Huge potential.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh...Oh...

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh...Oh...

It would be amazing if February could deliver once again. I’ve gotten snow every February since 2017.

[Brennan]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow and high temps Wednesday.

Looks like it’ll be a wonderful time to be in Leavenworth. 

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I don't remember the last time I've seen this much snow modelled on the RGEM within 70hrs. Might not verify at that intensity bit still. Huge potential.

Yea. Pretty insane gradient. 16” in Abbotsford but down to only a few inches once you get a few miles south of the border.  

[Brennan]

7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I don't remember the last time I've seen this much snow modelled on the RGEM within 70hrs. Might not verify at that intensity bit still. Huge potential.

CM not Inches

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Looks like it’ll be a wonderful time to be in Leavenworth. 

Winter Storm watch for late Tuesday into Wednesday.  Latest forecast has us in the 8-12 inch range.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Put up a 19/12 yesterday and a 23/14 today.

Top shelf low level blast at least for the modern era.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, umadbro said:

NAM definitely too quick at scouring out the cold air. 

The NAM is never too quick to scour out the cold unless it has the storm track/strength of precip rates entirely wrong. CAD is the one thing it excels at relative to other guidance.