January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

A few big takeaways from tonight's ECMWF.

1. Arctic surface high punches much further south than previous runs.

2. North WA Interior and SW BC look good for snow

3. Central Puget Sound still cannot be ruled out for snow.

4. Likely ZR Tuesday night for many areas.

5. Looks like two more freezing max temps for PDX.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18.0˚F. It just doesn't feel that cold anymore after a couple mornings in the single digits.

Looking pretty good for a Wednesday snowstorm IMBY, though it's going to be wet and sloppy and given how close I am to the edge might just be rain with splats in it.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

I would take some effing freezing rain at this point, what a horrible effing mess and waste of a cold airmass here.  Ya ya, the stat mongers are happy, I get that, but visually you can't see the cold....  LAME!!

 

You can see it if you look at bodies of water and water falls.  I will say though I would be irritated if we get major snow events both north and south with nothing here.  Still an amazing cold wave though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

3. Central Puget Sound still cannot be ruled out for snow.

Unless there is a dramatic trend south it looks like a freezing rain event for your region… at best.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

18.0˚F. It just doesn't feel that cold anymore after a couple mornings in the single digits.

Looking pretty good for a Wednesday snowstorm IMBY, though it's going to be wet and sloppy and given how close I am to the edge might just be rain with splats in it.

I think is going to get colder as the time frame narrows.

[Cold Snap]

Had a 29/11 day here today. Briefly touched 19 earlier and back up to 20 here currently. I will say after witnessing negative wind chills that when I got back and it was 25 degrees that 25 degrees felt “warm”. Felt like it could have been 40.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Unless there is a dramatic trend south it looks like a freezing rain event for your region… at best.

Not really that dramatic given the complexity of the situation.  Obviously I know the chances aren't great.  I'm giving some weight to the graph cast though.  ZR is a good bet for my area by the looks of things with act 1 of the event.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can see it if you look at bodies of water and water falls.  I will say though I would be irritated if we get major snow events both north and south with nothing here.  Still an amazing cold wave though.

Two out of the three winters since I moved to Vancouver have involved skating on Trout Lake. That’s pretty remarkable, as disappointing as the paltry snowfall so far this season has been.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at the Columbia Basin and Eastern Gorge NOT scouring out. 

For my location, I am on team torch. 

[Omegaraptor]

NWS going with a low of 16 at PDX and 14 at HIO. Let’s see if skies can clear out earlier in the night than expected.

[snow_wizard]

Well...The Graph Cast backed off a bit on the cold.  Now what I wanted to see.

[Winterdog]

15.2 now.  Not much warmer than last night at this time.  

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...The Graph Cast backed off a bit on the cold.  Now what I wanted to see.

Where do you see a detailed enough image of that model to tell that? The only ones I see are so zoomed out it’s impossible to see details 

[MossMan]

Just now, Winterdog said:

15.2 now.  Not much warmer than last night at this time.  

Still 18.6 here.

[MossMan]

Excerpt from the latest NWS Seattle AFD

And a block of frozen mud my daughter chunked out of the earth today! 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still 18.6 here.

You must have a breeze going, it’s 16 at the Arlington airport

[snow_wizard]

About all I can say for Seattle are people is it always evens out.  PDX got slammed in Jan 2017 and then it was all Seattle for years until last Feb and this one.  Even going way back, the epic cold in Jan 1930 only had a little bit of snow here while Portland was a winter wonderland for weeks.  The winter before that Seattle was the place to be.  Just the way it goes.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still 18.6 here.

You know there’s been a severe cold snap when people complain about a temperature in the upper teens being insufficiently cold.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Excerpt from the latest NWS Seattle AFD

And a block of frozen mud my daughter chunked out of the earth today! 

Wait until that mud thaws.  Yuck!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...The Graph Cast backed off a bit on the cold.  Now what I wanted to see.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Where do you see a detailed enough image of that model to tell that? The only ones I see are so zoomed out it’s impossible to see details 

ECMWF | Charts

Crude graphics, but you can see SEA drops to -5 or so on 850s as opposed to -6 or -7 on the 12z.

There are some choices of view in this link.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

About all I can say for Seattle are people is it always evens out.  PDX got slammed in Jan 2017 and then it was all Seattle for years until last Feb and this one.  Even going way back, the epic cold in Jan 1930 only had a little bit of snow here while Portland was a winter wonderland for weeks.  The winter before that Seattle was the place to be.  Just the way it goes.

Portland also had a very big event in February 2021. We did alright in December 2017, February 2018 and February 2019 as well. Although the Puget Sound area and Eugene were no doubt the winners in Feb ‘19.

[iFred]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Unless there is a dramatic trend south it looks like a freezing rain event for your region… at best.

If it makes you feel better, I can ban Jim until you’ve had your snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Portland also had a very big event in February 2021. We did alright in December 2017, February 2018 and February 2019 as well. Although the Puget Sound area and Eugene were no doubt the winners in Feb ‘19.

We did very well in Dec 2021 too.  I clearly remember people down there being very disgusted by Seattle always outdoing them for quite a few years.

[Hawksfan2008]

Big spread this close for the EPS 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We did very well in Dec 2021 too.  I clearly remember people down there being very disgusted by Seattle always outdoing them for quite a few years.

Oh yeah December 2021 wasn’t super memorable down here aside from a handful of small snowfalls and about a week of moderate cold. Much better in Seattle and down the Willamette Valley.

February 2021 was great down here for places that didn’t get zr though. I’d have to look back in my records for the exact amount but I had 8-10” of snow with that one.

Edited January 15 by Cascadia_Wx

[GHweatherChris]

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can see it if you look at bodies of water and water falls.  I will say though I would be irritated if we get major snow events both north and south with nothing here.  Still an amazing cold wave though.

LAME

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just looked outside and clouds appear to be thinning a bit. Down to 19. 

[Phil]

There’s frozen water falling from the sky. WTF??

 

 

[Hawksfan2008]

Come on 33  

[BLI snowman]

https://www.wweek.com/outdoors/2024/01/14/top-of-mount-tabor-destroyed-by-downed-fir-trees/

Some really significant damage from the east winds in SE Portland. 

[Jbolin]

All things considered and taking into account how much snow I got with the arctic front and likely nothing coming out of this cold spell. I can confidently say, 

 

[Tanis Leach]

Newest video: 

Technical Info:

Models are notoriously bad on scouring out the cold air too quickly, so I instead went with when the low passes the Portland metro Longitude for when this happens, as models are showing a PDX to The Dalles gradient enough to produce some wind. There is still a cold pool to draw from so it should be below freezing until then, but a quick warmup will result afterwards. 

 

 

[Tanis Leach]

Also, my official snow/sleet total in Sherwood is 1.3 inches. 

 

This is an average of 5 measurements between 1.1 and 1.5 inches in various hard surfaces within 100 feet of my house. 

[North_County]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea. Pretty insane gradient. 16” in Abbotsford but down to only a few inches once you get a few miles south of the border.  

I've seen that happen pretty often when there's just a trickle of cold air escaping from the canyon that just kind of hangs up at the border. In those cases, I've been buried in snow in Sumas, and just south of city limits it all just.....disappears.

[The Blob]

Very whindy here. 

[Jbolin]

15 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Very whindy here. 

How wyndy is the h-wynd? 

[The Blob]

4 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

How wyndy is the h-wynd? 

Enough to wake me up.

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Big spread this close for the EPS 

No spread the frame before.   That is low dissolving there.

[Everleigh]

Am I probably looking at rain, or something other than snow, down here in Yelm for Tues/Wed?  I still have my snow from Thursday, but I'd like MOAR!