MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous . Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified. It is in 24hrs!!! The great windstorm bust of October 2016 really did a number on them. Been very gun shy ever since. 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous . Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified. It is in 24hrs!!! Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Me when I see Tim post a snow map with no snow. When I see a snow map with no snow I close that sh*t out quick! Just because there is no snow on a particular map for your backyard doesn't mean the map doesn't show lots of snow for other people on here. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TacomaWx said: Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. I think there will be lots of school delays and commuting issues on Wednesday. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just because there is no snow on a particular map for your backyard doesn't mean the map doesn't show lots of snow for other people on here. I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. I don’t care either way it’s just not fun to look at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Salem down to 21 with a dp of 10. Will be interesting to see where they end up before clouds start moving in. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. All of them. And Bellingham. And also posted RGEM and GEM which were snowy much farther south. I don't ignore any model in these complicated scenarios. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: bruh dude 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Down to 26f this evening. NWS waiting until things start happening to issue advisories as always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I think there will be lots of school delays and commuting issues on Wednesday. I told my boss about it a couple times recently but we’re all going into work tomorrow. Hoping I can be headed home before it starts. Depending on how the roads are Wednesday morning I don’t want to drive like I did during the last ice event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Still snowing We can dream 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Timmy Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 Down to 17 here. It has been one to remember! I am not sure I have experienced this dry of snow before in my town. It has been pleasantly easy to drive in as well. Kids have been loving sledding each day too. 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: I told my boss about it a couple times recently but we’re all going into work tomorrow. Hoping I can be headed home before it starts. Depending on how the roads are Wednesday morning I don’t want to drive like I did during the last ice event. You have until 7 or 8 p.m. tomorrow before precip starts. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. I don't remember the wind bust, what happened Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I will either be heavily shadowed or dumped on depending on wind direction 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Duuude…We won’t have a place to eat, what are we going to do…brah… busted pipes are happening all over, several schools are closed tomorrow because of it, and I know Stanwood middle school was apparently a mess as well due to the same thing, they were sure if they would be able to open tomorrow or not. IMG_1944.mov 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous . Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified. It is in 24hrs!!! either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet. I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one. I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will. didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 5 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Phishy Wx said: either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet. I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one. I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will. didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? I think he’s talking about no notice for freezing rain not snow. It’s pretty clear it’s going to be a problem Tuesday/ Wednesday but absolutely no warning up right now. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. I don’t care either way it’s just not fun to look at. I took great enjoyment in seeing Tim's snow maps, and I hope he posts more because I'm a cheapskate without a WB subscription. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I don't remember the wind bust, what happened "But the bent-back occlusion!!!!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, North_County said: I took great enjoyment in seeing Tim's snow maps, and I hope he posts more because I'm a cheapskate without a WB subscription. It feels like he has posted snow maps with no snow for anybody’s backyard. But like I said I don’t actually care. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I don't remember the wind bust, what happened NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. It turned into a double barrel low that tracked too far away 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I don't remember the wind bust, what happened Pretty much all models were predicting one of the strongest windstorms in Seattle history with a strong low tracking over the Olympics and bent back occlusion roaring right through the Puget Sound. NWS warned accordingly and had pie on their face when the low deepened more than modeled, tracked further offshore, and it was hardly even breezy. The public lost a lot of their confidence in Mets after that and ever since the NWS has been extremely gun shy about predicting anything severe until it’s actually started happening. 7 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 @Phil Come laugh at this with me. What a cruel joke of a sounding!! 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: They made a tweet Bet it left a skid mark in their britches. 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet. I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one. I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will. didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? I agree. Just a quick glance and a lot of the possible freezing rain happens with temps right at freezing, according to the map, but they might think the actual temps will be above freezing. Those temp maps are not a real high resolution map. Still it needs to be watched closely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 ECMWF, GFS, GEM, and NAM 3km all say about 8" IMBY. HRDPS does not cover the entire length of the event yet, but is clearly trending that way. Expecting 4–6" because temperatures will be marginal and I expect some of it will be mixed with rain. It's the old phantom snow problem. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Anything good happening? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO. The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media. 7 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Off topic but look at radar right next to the Gulf of Mexico rn….. getting snow shouldn’t be this tough in Seattle lol 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I don't remember the wind bust, what happened It was supposed to be a truly epically massive windstorm. My wife made me go out and buy a crap-ton of extra flashlights, batteries and food because we happened to have family staying with us. We were going to be without power for days and our guests would be stuck here (they took the train up). My adult soccer league cancelled games that weekend because they moved the goals to more secure locations and tied them down to avoid them taking off in the wind and doing damage (I wish I was joking). In the end, the wind (at least here in Bellingham) barely met advisory levels. I don't think it got mush worse anywhere else. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO. The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media. I was really looking forward to that beast…That never came. 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: @Phil Come laugh at this with me. What a cruel joke of a sounding!! Just that little area!! GOOD LORD THIS AREA HATES SNOW. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Randy... 00Z GEM has you just inside the pepto! I like this trend. @TT-SEA I take back all of the horrible things I said about you to my wife, my neighbor, the meet up, the North Bend City Council, and the King County sheriff who lives a block away from you. 1 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO. The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media. Didn’t it form a double barrel low as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I was really looking forward to that beast…That never came. I wonder if there was ever a post mortem on that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, MWG said: Anything good happening? not yet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet. I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one. I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will. didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? Eh....you'd think so, but the track record for the Seattle office hasn't been stellar of late. Lots of watches and warnings issued after we are well into the event that warranted the watch/warning. "Hey there's 5" of snow on the ground, maybe we should issue a winter weather advisory." I seem to remember that right around the time JAYA retired, a lot of other "senior" mets in the Seattle office also retired/left. 6 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 23.4 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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