January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Weiner Warrior]

I like this one

 

[Sometimesdylan]

It snowed a lot the last couple days. Solid overrunning event. Things are tapering down now and the town is a little bit of a mess. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Coincidental but I was looking at old pictures and noticed how eerily similar the snow maps looked for 12/20/23.

That one ended up giving snow accumulations down to Seattle with quite a bit just North of Seattle. 

Wow... so similar.  Trying to remember this one.   Seems like our ice storm here was 2 days later.

[BLI snowman]

31 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Your area must have done incredibly well. How much snow did you end up getting in total?

I ended up around 2.5-3 inches of snow/sleet mix. 

Just a little more with around 4" of almost all snow here. Not the huge storm we had the potential for but objectively still a great event. And a little heavier just up the road, with 5-6" in the town of Ridgefield and up towards La Center where the deformation band lasted a little longer. 

Edited January 16 by BLI snowman

[Skagit Weather]

19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Coincidental but I was looking at old pictures and noticed how eerily similar the snow maps looked for 12/20/23.

That one ended up giving snow accumulations down to Seattle with quite a bit just North of Seattle. 

I would definitely take 8.5" of snow again! This definitely seems more marginal to me though. Temps were in the low-mid 20s up here and didn't get much warmer than that as the snow came in. And I at least had the Euro giving me something while it has no more than flakes in the air over the next two days.

[Sandy rocks]

Not looking forward to all the ice coming my way. I just hope the power stays on, don't want to go through that again any time soon. My grandsons were having video games withdrawl, it was ugly.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I would definitely take 8.5" of snow again! This definitely seems more marginal to me though. Temps were in the low-mid 20s up here and didn't get much warmer than that as the snow came in. And I at least had the Euro giving me something while it has no more than flakes in the air over the next two days.

I remember this one now here... we got 4 inches of snow at the start then very strong south wind with rain for 4 hours that melted the 4 inches of snow and then immediately got another 4 inches of snow in the backwash around departing low.    Very unique storm here.

[snow_wizard]

I have to admit apparently getting missed by this second chance to get snow hurts a bit.  There are very few cold waves of this scope where we get basically nothing in the Puget Sound region.  Still a chance the models could get fooled, but I doubt it.  Things actually stay pretty chilly though Thursday night now.

It will be interesting to see how the final numbers play out for this cold wave for BLI.  It could easily be their top 5 cold wave for a 7 day period on record with this little extension they are getting.

I'm still very happy to see January finally put something top tier up regardless, but the lack of snow is a bummer.  Just remember...it always evens out.

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Coincidental but I was looking at old pictures and noticed how eerily similar the snow maps looked for 12/20/23.

That one ended up giving snow accumulations down to Seattle with quite a bit just North of Seattle. 

That was a lovely day! 

[bainbridgekid]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember this one now here... we got 4 inches of snow at the start then very strong south wind with rain for 4 hours that melted the 4 inches of snow and then immediately got another 4 inches of snow in the backwash around departing low.    Very unique storm here.

If I remember correctly it was a somewhat similar setup but with colder air in place. Overrunning at first and then the deformation band caused the rain/snow line to sag South to Seattle while they still had high precip rates. North Seattle got a couple inches and downtown got a light coating just before precip shut off. I remember because I was in Chicago and my family couldn’t understand why I was obsessing over surface detail analysis 2,000 miles away.  

[Slushy Inch]

End of gefs

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is February gonna be the snow month again?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here's the high resolution model through late Wednesday

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

End of gefs

Very definite jet retraction in progress.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is February gonna be the snow month again?

I would have said Feb didn't have a chance a couple of months ago, but it's obvious this is not strong Nino as usual this winter.

In 1972-73 we had the big cold wave in December and then January had a pretty respectable, but lesser known event a few weeks later.

[snow_wizard]

Two runs in a row for the CFS.

[snow_wizard]

Control is fantastic.  Back to back good runs on that too.  IMO it's no coincidence the MJO wave is supposed to enter region 7 late this month.

[Meatyorologist]

February 8th

[Hawksfan2008]

Ummm quite the trend 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

February 8th

Superb Owl weekend 

[Hawksfan2008]

NAM joins the RGEM with a freezing rain to snow transition 

[Hawksfan2008]

Both the RGEM and the NAM have North Bend getting an inch of freezing rain followed by 2+ inches of snow. That’s insane…

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM joins the RGEM with a freezing rain to snow transition 

There is quite a dramatic change on the 925mb temps for King County on this run Wednesday afternoon vs the 0z.  Might still be some hope.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Both the RGEM and the NAM have North Bend getting an inch of freezing rain followed by 2+ inches of snow. That’s insane…

In 2012 we had 4" of snow, a lot of ZR, and then 2 inches of snow.

[Snowlova]

NAM 12km shows the second system coming in around noon thurs as snow and zr

[Parrot]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In 2012 we had 4" of snow, a lot of ZR, and then 2 inches of snow.

Was in Bonney Lake at the time and we got over a foot of snow, all topped with ZR. It was so fun to walk through, it was like walking on weak glass, the surface of the snow would shatter a bit with each step. Easily the most memorable event of my lifetime and I doubt anything will top it.

[Front Ranger]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

God I missed this.  Just hit 3”. I think we can reach 5-6”.

There you go my man. Scorage.

[Tanis Leach]

The transition event: 

 

 

Technical info: wider margin of error and higher high end totals than local TV stations is due to me showing a late rise above freezing (1 pm median estimate at PDX) The models are notoriously bad scouring out cold air too quickly. Also see description for 2nd disclaimer. 

Oh and that scenario where the east wind gradient doesn't get killed, in case it didn't get drilled in, it's unlikely, but non-zero. If it happens only small patches of freezing rain would remain since the cold pool would still retreat east of the Cascades.

[MossMan]

Currently 20.8 degrees.

I’m now under a WWA but they do not mention any snow as of yet. 
 

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 16 at 3:59AM PST until January 17 at 6:00AM PST by NWS Seattle WA

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...East Puget Sound Lowlands from Snohomish County to Pierce County, including Arlington, Gold Bar, Duvall, Snoqualmie, Buckley, and Eatonville. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages.

[Tyler Mode]

Loving the satellite showing the cold air, rivers in eastern Washington etc.

Down to 11 here.

[Tyler Mode]

6z Euro is significantly cooler for PDX, but also warmer late Wednesday into Thursday.

Edit: this is 6z to 6z comparison.  It is also a little cooler than the 0z.

Edited January 16 by Tyler Mode

[Chewbacca Defense]

Winter storm warning (posted by Whatcom County Weather on FB)

 

[TT-SEA]

Hope is 12Z NAM is right with ZR up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 15 this morning. Looks like 16 at SLE. Nice way to wrap this thing up this morning. East side we have a -10 at Baker City, the 0 at Hood River is impressive. This wasn’t really a top tier blast for much of Central and Eastern Oregon, but it was pretty impressive for the Gorge and Basin. 

[Victoria450]

Does anyone have the 6Z euro snowfall map?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here's the high resolution model through late Wednesday

I’m getting dumped on again..

[The Blob]

18 here this morning and windy.

[T-Town]

Low of 21.6 so far. Actually colder than Sunday night. 

[RayRay]

Range of 17-24 degrees here

[Chewbacca Defense]

21.6 this morning after a low of 19.  I'm thinking we will pop above freezing today