January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[GobBluth]

45 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Lot of stations on the eastside of PDX in the 28-31 F range and copious precipitation moving in-- yikes 

Cooling down on west side. I'm down to 34.

[Phil]

This is messed up. Need the late Jan/early Feb +NAO episode to cool these waters down, otherwise there will be consequences come summer/fall.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

My January forecast on thin ice.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2024/fcst_Temp.14.202401.gif

Definitely. Maybe even thick ice

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

They're straight up necessary around here.  Maybe not legally, but practically.  (also, they are in fact legally required in the adjacent parts of BC).

Probably the same in Spokane if you ever plan to head into the mountains at all.  Even just driving to Sandpoint must be a hair raising experience without them....

I've managed to get around fine here with good All season tires in 6 winters.  I've considered snow tires, but haven't done so yet.  I drive an Audi and my wife a Subaru, both all wheel drive and do great in snow if your tires are good.  fortunately we don't get a lot of ice

[SpaceRace22]

Still only 32.5 here. We tried to thaw briefly yesterday around 1pm, but very quickly went back below freezing for the whole evening and overnight. It was interesting to see everything go from wet and drippy to suddenly looking much more "white" s the temp inched down a half a degree or so.

Finally getting some serious melting here now today, but still an impressive amount of ice over everything. Ground remains completely covered in snow (if you can even call it that at this point, lol). Would not be shocked to dip back below freezing tonight, given how precarious our temp is right now. Looks like several stations within a couple miles of here are still right at or just under the 32 degree mark.

[MossMan]

Just ran home and plowed, the driveway is just sooo cold! Layer of ice under the slush. Limbs were hanging even lower then when I left work for earlier. 90% rain now though. Temp was up to 33.2 but it’s back down to 32.8 at the moment.,

[SpaceRace22]

I am a complete and total moron when it comes to 500mb charts, so this could be false hope and not a pattern where a GoA ridge has a chance of building out of, but the GraphCast looks like it's loading one hell of a gun at hour 240. Tons of cold air building up in Canada. The Pacific looks very zonal and blah at that time, but this seems like something that could be very spicy with a few more days of run time.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flurries now. 34.0˚F.

[SpaceRace22]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've managed to get around fine here with good All season tires in 6 winters.  I've considered snow tires, but haven't done so yet.  I drive an Audi and my wife a Subaru, both all wheel drive and do great in snow if your tires are good.  fortunately we don't get a lot of ice

This will probably shock a lot of people in light of recent news reporting, but my Tesla has been hands down the best vehicle in the ice and snow I have ever driven. Took it out at the height of the ice storm yesterday morning with 0 issue (well technically my mom's car, but she has the exact same model as me). Drove it all over Seattle and up some shockingly steep hills at the height of Dec 2021 with no trouble at all as well. I remember passing countless cars that couldn't make it up the same hill I was driving up with ease. I've also taken it up Hwy 2 and I-90 during countless snowstorms without any issues whatsoever. Can't say enough good things about that car as far as how it drives in slippery conditions.

The extra weight of the battery combined with the AWD and smart traction control capabilities the car has are an absolute godsend in the snow. There's never been anywhere I haven't been able to go in any type of weather so far.

[MossMan]

The generator that was left with the house when we bought it has been a flawless workhorse!! It plugs into the side of the house where my truck carport is, fire it up and flip the transfer switch and half the house is powered back up. Outside lights, living room and dining room lights, refrigerator, gas oven and hood fan and lights, well pump, septic pump, gas (propane) fireplace and fireplace blower, and many outlets. Nothing upstairs is powered but I just run an extension cord up from downstairs to run my wife’s office and kids fish tank. I also run an Extension cord from the generator to the garage fridge and freezer. That thing probably had bunch of hours from the previous owners and a ton from us over the last 6 years. I religiously keep it serviced. Full tank of fuel and 15 extra gallons on the ready…Because you just never know. 

Edited January 18 by MossMan

[DeepFriedEgg]

32.5F wow this would have been bad overnight.

[MossMan]

Back to snow!! 32.7

[smerfylicious]

Weeeeee

 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

Everyone better get to work on their apologies...turns out there is a new type of weather that we didn't know about...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/freezing-rain-or-rain-that-freezes-they.html

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

NOAA’s January forecast on thin ice.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2024/fcst_Temp.14.202401.gif

You'd think they could do better than that graphic.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The generator that was left with the house when we bought it has been a flawless workhorse!! It plugs into the side of the house where my truck carport is, fire it up and flip the transfer switch and half the house is powered back up. Outside lights, living room and dining room lights, refrigerator, gas oven and hood fan and lights, well pump, septic pump, gas (propane) fireplace and fireplace blower, and many outlets. Nothing upstairs is powered but I just run an extension cord up from downstairs to run my wife’s office and kids fish tank. I also run an Extension cord from the generator to the garage fridge and freezer. That thing probably had bunch of hours from the previous owners and a ton from us over the last 6 years. I religiously keep it serviced. Full tank of fuel and 15 extra gallons on the ready…Because you just never know. 

Name brand quality, at least for that brand at the time that unit was manufactured. Doubt a Hazard Fraught Tools made in China discount special could give that sort of service.

[SpaceRace22]

Amazing how many areas in the SW metro that were up near 45 yesterday are now back at or below freezing.

[AlTahoe]

22 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I am a complete and total moron when it comes to 500mb charts, so this could be false hope and not a pattern where a GoA ridge has a chance of building out of, but the GraphCast looks like it's loading one hell of a gun at hour 240. Tons of cold air building up in Canada. The Pacific looks very zonal and blah at that time, but this seems like something that could be very spicy with a few more days of run time.

I noticed some 498 heights coming down the coast of Canada at the very end of the Euro run. Will keep an eye on future runs to see if that low continues down the coast or not. 

[Parrot]

This layer of garbage slush here in Everett. Raining now

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Amazing how many areas in the SW metro that were up near 45 yesterday are now back at or below freezing.

Yep, I'm right near the line of freezing temperatures now. 33 here, but the heaviest of the precip. just moved through here already.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The girlfriend is right with me when it comes to these winters here, she woke up and seen there was no snow and said exactly can we please get the f out of here! 

She’s a keeper.

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

the power of snow cover.  was forecast to be 7 last night, got down to -1 IMBY.  currently 9.  getting windy with blowing and drifting.  hoping for a ground blizzard but not sure its windy enough in non exposed areas

Doesn’t seem to be working here. Failed to decouple here the last two nights despite 5” of snow on the ground. Lows 13-14°F with near 0°F to my north and south. Ffs.  

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beginning to lose hope for the end of the month. A jet extension appears likely now. 

The jet extension has been evident for awhile now though. The MJO and AAM tendencies have been relatively autonomous from the base state/easy to see since the SSW, and are clearly entering a cycle of constructive interference w/ ENSO.

2 hours ago, iFred said:

Winter is effectively over.

Nope. But sarcasm aside, it is taking a multiweek break. The next round of momentum loss/wave amplification starts when the MJO transits through phase 8/1 next month (I think it’ll be somewhere between 2/5 - 2/10, but my timing could be off a bit).

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We have 3 gas insert fireplaces in the house so we have some heat without power.  

Do you have a gas stove and water heater too? One of my earliest childhood memories was a bad ice storm in 1999 that left us without power for a week, and I still remember how we had those gas fireplaces & heater cranking 24/7. It saved our arses.

I never worry about winter power outages here. We’d be fine. The same can’t be said about summer..last time we had a prolonged summer outage was after the derecho in 2012, and the house became unlivable within a day.

53 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Blizzard of '24 aftermath.  We didn't actually verify the wind gusts required for a blizzard warning, but I'm pretty sure other parts of the valley did.  We finished with 16" of new snow, which is quite unusual for a single storm at my location.

Beautiful! Love the glistening scenery on that first day following a snowfall. It’s pure winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Everyone better get to work on their apologies...turns out there is a new type of weather that we didn't know about...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/freezing-rain-or-rain-that-freezes-they.html

Be a man and admit you were wrong fool!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Seatac 36 with a dewpoint of 30 and a 20mph east wind and rain. normally this would turn to snow but there is just to much warming between 925 and 850mb.

[Skagit Weather]

Still snowing here although the temperature is up to 33F. It's hard to say exactly how much I've picked up because the snow is melting as it accumulates, but probably about 1.5" today with 3" on the ground.

[AbbyJr]

@Phil

If we crash back into La Niña by next winter and the QBO goes westerly, do you think the outcome could be similar to 2016/17 for the PNW?

[ShawniganLake]

4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I say 8-10. You guys are just in the zone this year

Hard to be disappointed given the Enso state.  My season total is up to 18”.  
 

A little over 2” so far today. 

[MossMan]

What an interesting dynamic day. I ran home an hour and half ago to plow. When i left work it turned to rain and i figured that was it, no more snow. Get home and the transition happened there as well and I got soaked while plowing. Then when I’m eating lunch I see snowflakes mixing back in, then I leave to run back to work and it was all snow again, I take a quick drive to look at how it’s going above my place and it was all rain up there. 5 minutes later I tee back to work at the lower elevation and it is moderate snow with a fresh coat of white. 
Fun!! Video was from right around the corner from work just now and everything seems to be refreezing 

[Olive1010]

51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The generator that was left with the house when we bought it has been a flawless workhorse!! It plugs into the side of the house where my truck carport is, fire it up and flip the transfer switch and half the house is powered back up. Outside lights, living room and dining room lights, refrigerator, gas oven and hood fan and lights, well pump, septic pump, gas (propane) fireplace and fireplace blower, and many outlets. Nothing upstairs is powered but I just run an extension cord up from downstairs to run my wife’s office and kids fish tank. I also run an Extension cord from the generator to the garage fridge and freezer. That thing probably had bunch of hours from the previous owners and a ton from us over the last 6 years. I religiously keep it serviced. Full tank of fuel and 15 extra gallons on the ready…Because you just never know. 

Bec careful, here in Portland a family got carbon monoxide poisoning from that

[Olive1010]

 ice accumulation in the westside too?

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Bec careful, here in Portland a family got carbon monoxide poisoning from that

It’s outside well away from the house under my truck carport when running so no chance of that inside. Plus we have CO2 detectors in the house. The picture you see is where it’s stored nice and cozy in my small heated shop. 

Edited January 18 by MossMan

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

@Phil

If we crash back into La Niña by next winter and the QBO goes westerly, do you think the outcome could be similar to 2016/17 for the PNW?

What does “like 2016/17” mean?

Little known fact is 2016/17 was not a Niña winter at all. Sure, it started out with a weak Niña low frequency signal, but that collapsed entirely by January.

The second half of that winter featured a hybrid Niño-Costero low frequency signature and +PMM/+PDO signature in the off-equator circulation. It was bizarre and something few expected going into the winter, including myself.

Then, as if nature was intentionally trolling, the niño-costero regime collapsed and inverted into a moderate east-pacific Niña and +PMM during the summer of 2017, which once again caught me off guard.

I remember being extra salty because I never saw that coming, even as it was happening, and that entire summer played out contrary to how I expected it to.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lol it has been 34 with a 30 dewpoint at my house all day with a mix falling. Insane. I did have a light dusting between 5am and 7am,. This would of been a 8 inch snow day with very small changes in temps. 

[North_County]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My generator runs pretty much my entire house and I got it for like $800 at Costco. It was about $1200 to get the switch put on the house. If you want to go full generac like many of my neighbors that’s more in the $20-30k range, but probably worth it if you can afford it. 

I probably have the same one. I have a natural gas furnace, so heating my house doesn't take much juice, which means I can realistically run pretty much anything I want off of it, as well as running a line to my neighbors when an outage persists.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Lol it has been 34 with a 30 dewpoint at my house all day with a mix falling. Insane. I did have a light dusting between 5am and 7am,. This would have been a 8 inch snow day with very small changes in temps. 

Seems rare that my location is doing better than yours with this setup 

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be a man and admit you were wrong fool!

Good grief. The drops don’t need to be supercooled.  Cliff Mass has gone from splitting hairs to spilling atoms.

Most ZR is a mixture of supercooled and non-supercooled droplets anyway. Droplet size, steepness/depth of the inversion, etc. are always in flux.

The reason ZR events are often self limiting is due to the release of latent heat during the phase change. So it really makes no difference if the droplet is 32.4°F or 31.8°F, it will freeze either way in a subfreezing environment.

[Doinko]

Very windy with rain falling, it's 34 degrees so no ice

[Snoqualmoo]

Still snowing, and very windy, in North Bend.

[North_County]

2 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

We had that set up in our previous house, and it worked when the power went out.  Not sure how, but it did.

I had the same setup in my previous house that i was renting, and didnt have a generator at the time. I could at least warm up the living room with the power out, so long as i had the pilot light lit (which i generally did from mid-October through March).

Here is your answer, btw:

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good grief. The drops don’t need to be supercooled.  Cliff Mass has gone from splitting hairs to spilling atoms.

Most ZR is a mixture of supercooled and non-supercooled droplets anyway. Droplet size, steepness/depth of the inversion, etc. are always in flux.

The reason ZR events are often self limiting is due to the release of latent heat during the phase change. So it really makes no difference if the droplet is 32.4°F or 31.8°F, it will freeze either way in a subfreezing environment.

I think you’re wrong.  I’m pretty sure each droplet needs to be checked to make sure it’s below 32F before it can be declared freezing rain.  

 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Man this is a massive precip shield.