January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s really hard to even describe how good last winter was here. I could try to nitpick on top tier cold, but it got plenty cold. We had a 28/12 day in late February. And a 33/14 when we got clipped by that modified arctic airmass in late January. Snow on the ground for most of November, half of February, all of March, and well into April. 

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the late month torch that will bump us up near the 30-year average for January we have a chance for this year to be the 6th out of the past 7 years to have a colder February than January. Still think it’s a long shot, but who knows if we get a sustained chilly pattern with a nice cold shot!

I’d be shocked if February ends up colder than January there.

There’s a potential cold window mid-month with the resumption of high latitude blocking, but that is sandwiched between niño-like patterns.

[snow_wizard]

39 and clear here.  One of the colder places around tonight.  I finally caught a break!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d be shocked if February ends up colder than January there.

There’s a potential cold window mid-month with the resumption of high latitude blocking, but that is sandwiched between niño-like patterns.

It's actually looking like early Feb is when it will be cold.  Models are really running with the idea now.

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't know why I kept thinking OR didn't well in Dec 2021.  It just seems like everyone down there kept lamenting on how Seattle kept getting all the snow.

It was pretty decent here. A lot of the Willamette Valley had a lot of snow I think, areas around Eugene had ~10". Here we were a bit snow shadowed and only got 2-3" of wet snow total but it was still a nice stretch, and we had one subfreezing high here after most melted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't know why I kept thinking OR didn't well in Dec 2021.  It just seems like everyone down there kept lamenting on how Seattle kept getting all the snow.

Portland didn’t do quite as well, they had 3-4” in general I believe. But most of the rest of western Oregon got more, it just wasn’t super cold like it was up there. Highs were in the mid 30s for a few days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually looking like early Feb is when it will be cold.  Models are really running with the idea now.

Yeah, early February seems chilly at least. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't know why I kept thinking OR didn't well in Dec 2021.  It just seems like everyone down there kept lamenting on how Seattle kept getting all the snow.

You’re probably basing your impression of the event down here on Tiger’s posts. Ironically Eugene got like 3X the snow the Portland area did with that one.

[Slushy Inch]

I’d like member #1 on the eps. Looks cold.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

It was probably the most anomalous PNA blocking pattern in modern history across North America.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table

The modified value of -4.39 represents the most extreme value on record, though December 2021 recently gave it a run for its money.

The progression actually started in mid December with a Fraser River blast that hit northern WA around the 18th. Following that, the pattern reset and reset with each successive airmass digging a little more ferociously than the last while a significant amount of jet support existed under the base of the block .

The blast around the 2nd-4th was significant regionally, followed by days of cold onshore flow and occasional wet snow in the lowlands. Then the block reset in full and delivered a massive airmass into the region.

The Friday the 13th blizzard probably rivaled many of the more intense Nor'easters on record. Highly recommend checking out some of the old obs from that day, the wind speeds and temperatures were insane. A few examples:

BLI

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/KBLI/date/1950-1-13

SEA

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/ksea/date/1950-1-13

PDX

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kpdx/date/1950-1-13

MFR

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kmfr/date/1950-1-13

The low passed right over PDX around 5pm, and it wound up being one of the worst southerly windstorms on record for the Rogue Valley. And the worst noreaster on record for Whatcom County. Gusts there approached 80mph with temps in the low single digits.

That was followed by a sharp undercut around the 18th which led to a significant ice storm that produced 2-3" of freezing rain for most of NW OR and SW WA. A few mild days followed regionally before another massive airmass dropped straight down out of BC around the 23rd.

The jet stream yo-yoed with a battle zone setting up for a few more days before a very broad and deep trough settled in and produced a massive eastside cold pool at the end of the month which was boosted by the big snowpack. That cold pool helped produce a 15/-10 day locally on the 31st. Low level airmass held on for a few more days into February before the block shifted east for good.

This is probably the best play by play of that month that I’ve come across so far. Thank you.

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yet very oddly, not a peep from you when we had our coldest daytime temps in years last week. That was VERY wintery. But I guess weather is only worth reporting on when it’s some sort of half baked complaint or dis on our climate  

If I recall correctly I made several posts on 1/13 on the extremely cold afternoon temps, Jesse.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If I recall correctly I made several posts on 1/13 on the extremely cold afternoon temps, Jesse.

Well they represented a much larger departure from average than some upper 50s and sunbreaks in the mid-Willamette valley. That’s dime a dozen stuff in the winter. Even back in the day.

I was legitimately glad to hear you came up north to experience the storm on 1/13, though. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't know why I kept thinking OR didn't well in Dec 2021.  It just seems like everyone down there kept lamenting on how Seattle kept getting all the snow.

We had 10" in persistent bands of snow flurries that would accumulate overnight for 3 straight nights. The last one had some of the most beautiful snow I've ever seen in how it accumulated. This all happened in an onshore flow event where the air was incredibly cold coming off the ocean after downsloping it was still cold enough for accumulating snow down to like 300 ft.

[Meatyorologist]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Both the extended range EPS and GEFS have a strong Alaska ridge signal starting mid-Feb. Interesting.

What's really interesting is the positive tone here

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It was probably the most anomalous PNA blocking pattern in modern history across North America.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table

The modified value of -4.39 represents the most extreme value on record, though December 2021 recently gave it a run for its money.

The progression actually started in mid December with a Fraser River blast that hit northern WA around the 18th. Following that, the pattern reset and reset with each successive airmass digging a little more ferociously than the last while a significant amount of jet support existed under the base of the block .

The blast around the 2nd-4th was significant regionally, followed by days of cold onshore flow and occasional wet snow in the lowlands. Then the block reset in full and delivered a massive airmass into the region.

The Friday the 13th blizzard probably rivaled many of the more intense Nor'easters on record. Highly recommend checking out some of the old obs from that day, the wind speeds and temperatures were insane. A few examples:

BLI

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/KBLI/date/1950-1-13

SEA

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/ksea/date/1950-1-13

PDX

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kpdx/date/1950-1-13

MFR

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kmfr/date/1950-1-13

The low passed right over PDX around 5pm, and it wound up being one of the worst southerly windstorms on record for the Rogue Valley. And the worst noreaster on record for Whatcom County. Gusts there approached 80mph with temps in the low single digits.

That was followed by a sharp undercut around the 18th which led to a significant ice storm that produced 2-3" of freezing rain for most of NW OR and SW WA. A few mild days followed regionally before another massive airmass dropped straight down out of BC around the 23rd.

The jet stream yo-yoed with a battle zone setting up for a few more days before a very broad and deep trough settled in and produced a massive eastside cold pool at the end of the month which was boosted by the big snowpack. That cold pool helped produce a 15/-10 day locally on the 31st. Low level airmass held on for a few more days into February before the block shifted east for good.

Sensational. My heart raced reading this. You provide so much to this forum

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It was probably the most anomalous PNA blocking pattern in modern history across North America.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table

The modified value of -4.39 represents the most extreme value on record, though December 2021 recently gave it a run for its money.

The progression actually started in mid December with a Fraser River blast that hit northern WA around the 18th. Following that, the pattern reset and reset with each successive airmass digging a little more ferociously than the last while a significant amount of jet support existed under the base of the block .

The blast around the 2nd-4th was significant regionally, followed by days of cold onshore flow and occasional wet snow in the lowlands. Then the block reset in full and delivered a massive airmass into the region.

The Friday the 13th blizzard probably rivaled many of the more intense Nor'easters on record. Highly recommend checking out some of the old obs from that day, the wind speeds and temperatures were insane. A few examples:

BLI

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/KBLI/date/1950-1-13

SEA

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/ksea/date/1950-1-13

PDX

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kpdx/date/1950-1-13

MFR

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kmfr/date/1950-1-13

The low passed right over PDX around 5pm, and it wound up being one of the worst southerly windstorms on record for the Rogue Valley. And the worst noreaster on record for Whatcom County. Gusts there approached 80mph with temps in the low single digits.

That was followed by a sharp undercut around the 18th which led to a significant ice storm that produced 2-3" of freezing rain for most of NW OR and SW WA. A few mild days followed regionally before another massive airmass dropped straight down out of BC around the 23rd.

The jet stream yo-yoed with a battle zone setting up for a few more days before a very broad and deep trough settled in and produced a massive eastside cold pool at the end of the month which was boosted by the big snowpack. That cold pool helped produce a 15/-10 day locally on the 31st. Low level airmass held on for a few more days into February before the block shifted east for good.

1/13/50 would have been the ultimate weeniecoaster down here. At 850mb, going from -12c at midnight to -1c at 3pm to -14c at midnight on the 14th. Dayum!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bit of a meh GFS run, but we ll keep battling. 

[Matt in Salem]

On 1/23/2024 at 9:08 PM, Chewbacca Defense said:

When I lived in Oregon in the late 90's, I had a '69 bug and I unfortunately nuked the motor.  The old motor burned oil, and for the most part I was pretty good about staying on top of it.  A flickering oil light when I was going around a freeway cloverleaf on my drive home from work was my "last warning."  One night I realized I hadn't added oil in a while, and I hadn't seen the light flicker.  As I was noodling that out in my brain, realizing "oh crap I'm probably really low on oil" the motor let go.  I had knocked the wire to the pressure sensor off.

There was only one shop in all of Oregon that still built aircooled VW engines, and it was in Eugene.  I think I paid $600-700 for a rebuilt motor, with a $200 core charge.  I did the swap myself with the help of a friend.  Man I miss that car!

New member here and I was looking through the last couple of days posts and ran across this and thought I'd share my VW bug experience.  In 1970 my Dad bought me a used '64 bug with 90K miles on it for $800---He told me this car will get you through college and then when you get a job you can buy yourself a real car!  I had to floor the gas pedal to get it up to 65mph so I was always driving it with the pedal to the metal on any open road. The heater and defroster were both terrible---about 15 minutes into my drives I would start to feel a slight smidgen of warmth if I was lucky!  2 years later and 35K more miles on it I had it floored as usual and "nuked the motor"---We got it towed to Sid's VW shop in Salem, Or. and he put a rebuilt engine in it---total job cost was $275 and it came with a 1 yr. warranty. It seemed like a pretty good deal and turned out to be----got me through college and my first year on my new job and then I had enough $ to buy my real car!

[Groundhog]

If a few days of seasonably cool floats your boat, great! Otherwise, it looks favourable for mountain snow and cold rain in the lowlands in early February. That’s potentially followed by more torching. I don’t see how that helps the snowpack overall if that’s the case. 
P.S. good to see rainfall totals marginally decrease from the forecasted pineapple vomit early next week. VI still gets clobbered, however. 
 

 

[Phishy Wx]

meh

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is WAY south! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is WAY south! 

More floods for San Diego?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is chilly, but not much moisture around when the cold air arrives. 

[Doinko]

CA gets pretty cold this run, cold air mass for us too, 850s around -8c in OR and WA

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

06Z Euro still keeping the hope alive for a January 70-burger in southern Oregon. Widespread 60-burgers increasingly look like a lock.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not bad at all. GEM looks a little delayed but heading towards the same thing. 

[RentonHill]

East slope upslope special right there

[AlTahoe]

10 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It was probably the most anomalous PNA blocking pattern in modern history across North America.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table

The modified value of -4.39 represents the most extreme value on record, though December 2021 recently gave it a run for its money.

The progression actually started in mid December with a Fraser River blast that hit northern WA around the 18th. Following that, the pattern reset and reset with each successive airmass digging a little more ferociously than the last while a significant amount of jet support existed under the base of the block .

The blast around the 2nd-4th was significant regionally, followed by days of cold onshore flow and occasional wet snow in the lowlands. Then the block reset in full and delivered a massive airmass into the region.

The Friday the 13th blizzard probably rivaled many of the more intense Nor'easters on record. Highly recommend checking out some of the old obs from that day, the wind speeds and temperatures were insane. A few examples:

BLI

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/KBLI/date/1950-1-13

SEA

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/ksea/date/1950-1-13

PDX

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kpdx/date/1950-1-13

MFR

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kmfr/date/1950-1-13

The low passed right over PDX around 5pm, and it wound up being one of the worst southerly windstorms on record for the Rogue Valley. And the worst noreaster on record for Whatcom County. Gusts there approached 80mph with temps in the low single digits.

That was followed by a sharp undercut around the 18th which led to a significant ice storm that produced 2-3" of freezing rain for most of NW OR and SW WA. A few mild days followed regionally before another massive airmass dropped straight down out of BC around the 23rd.

The jet stream yo-yoed with a battle zone setting up for a few more days before a very broad and deep trough settled in and produced a massive eastside cold pool at the end of the month which was boosted by the big snowpack. That cold pool helped produce a 15/-10 day locally on the 31st. Low level airmass held on for a few more days into February before the block shifted east for good.

Very cool post. Tahoe had 117" of snow in Jan 1950 so it looks like the jet was suppressed down this way. 

Dec 2021 we had a really cold and snowy stretch with 105" falling in 10 days. We rarely get drifting snow here but that stretch featured pretty intense ground blizzards here, and down in the Reno area. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We had 10" in persistent bands of snow flurries that would accumulate overnight for 3 straight nights. The last one had some of the most beautiful snow I've ever seen in how it accumulated. This all happened in an onshore flow event where the air was incredibly cold coming off the ocean after downsloping it was still cold enough for accumulating snow down to like 300 ft.

Beautiful write up. I love to hear positive takes on weather events from you!

[Deweydog]

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is chilly, but not much moisture around when the cold air arrives. 

Late February 1996.

[Doinko]

Up to 9.04" of rain on the month after yesterday's downpours

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12.4 inches of rain on the month lol. The last few months here have been crazy, approaching 50 inches of rain since nov 1

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some potential here

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12.4 inches of rain on the month lol. The last few months here have been crazy, approaching 50 inches of rain since nov 1

That seems like a huge anomaly compared to nearby spots. Something to do with your location near the Hood Canal?

[AlTahoe]

I think I remember a few of you mentioning 1986-1987 as a potential analog in the beginning of the season. This tweet shows how usual this moderate/strong El Nino is. Mammoth has never reached average snowfall after a start this slow before. Mammoth was supposed to be in the cross hairs of the strong El Nino!

 

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12.4 inches of rain on the month lol. The last few months here have been crazy, approaching 50 inches of rain since nov 1

Meanwhile I am running well below average this winter season. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

I think I remember a few of you mentioning 1986-1987 as a potential analog in the beginning of the season. This tweet shows how usual this moderate/strong El Nino is. Mammoth has never reached average snowfall after a start this slow before. Mammoth was supposed to be in the cross hairs of the strong El Nino!

 

What about last year? Where does it rank? Really no snowfall at all this winter?

[MossMan]

I want to be driving in massive snow walls around here some day! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Meanwhile I am running well below average this winter season. 

Not quite so wet here, either. Standing at 8.11" for the month. Though if the models are to be believed, I am about to get a lot more.

[AlTahoe]

10 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What about last year? Where does it rank? Really no snowfall at all this winter?

Last year was mammoths snowiest season during a 3rd year La Nina which was forecast to be much below average. Needless to say long range seasonal forecast need some work. lol