January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Rates trump insolation. As long as it’s not 32°F snizzle it’ll accumulate.

It doesn't though. Snow after March 1st doesn't stick around more than a few hours unless it is a SIGNIFIANT storm. Sun is just too strong by mid day

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I honestly believe we had help of some sort.

I'm not sold that we had help, but ancient civilizations probably did. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yay!

Maybe you will be able to make a frostman!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm not sold that we had help, but ancient civilizations probably did. 

Yep, I like the rocks they found that appear to have been cut with a laser 1000 years ago lol. Interesting.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It doesn't though. Snow after March 1st doesn't stick around more than a few hours unless it is a SIGNIFIANT storm. Sun is just too strong by mid day

I consider November to be more of a winter month than March is here. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I consider November to be more of a winter month than March is here. 

Sun angle!

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun angle!

November is darker, but also colder, snowier and wetter than March is here at Shawnigan.  Foothills in Oregon seem different, Andrew?  

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

For D15 that’s a very strong signal for +TNH/+PNA by mid-Feb on the 12z EPS.

At least 3 weeks of Tim-friendly weather coming up, from mid-month into at least the first week of March.

An early start to spring for us this year feels like a given. Phil isn't seeing his shadow. 

That stretch always seems like the point where ENSO forcing is most coupled with the NA upper level patterns.

Hence the bevy of troughs we've been seeing in the back halves of February lately with all the Ninas.

Edited January 31 by BLI snowman

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It doesn't though. Snow after March 1st doesn't stick around more than a few hours unless it is a SIGNIFIANT storm. Sun is just too strong by mid day

Sun angles are higher here and that’s not my experience at all. Accumulation on pavement is harder but still doable. And at night there’s no difference at all.

I suspect your problem is marginal temps and/or saturated boundary layer.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, if I had to pick a time in which to be born id pick the 1940s-1950s. Post WW2…lots of technological and scientific advancement and pre social media. The 1950s-1990s sounds like a great time to be alive for someone who was born in 1999. 

You must be a white male.   

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

An early start to spring for us this year feels like a given. Phil isn't seeing his shadow. 

That stretch always seems like the point where ENSO forcing is most coupled with the NA upper level patterns.

Hence the bevy of troughs we've been seeing in the back halves of February lately with all the Ninas.

Exactly this. The stretch of cold western Februaries is solely a function of ENSO and a record breaking SSW in 2019.

Remove those factors and there’s no reason to expect a similar outcome this year. This is a case where “persistence forcecasting” would likely fail.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I consider November to be more of a winter month than March is here. 

That’s wild. November is analogous to early April here.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

That’s wild. November is analogous to early April here.

Maybe in temperature... but those months are worlds apart in sun angle and that makes it feel totally different.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

For D15 that’s a very strong signal for +TNH/+PNA by mid-Feb on the 12z EPS.

At least 3 weeks of Tim-friendly weather coming up, from mid-month into at least the first week of March.

I’d bet February ends up being a very dry month here. Probably pretty close to average temperature wise with lots of sunny mild afternoons but cool frosty mornings.  Mountain snowpack is going to be in extremely desperate shape across BC by the time March arrives. 

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm not sold that we had help, but ancient civilizations probably did. 

Wouldn’t surprise me at all. It’d also explain all the wacky stuff in ancient religious texts, which we’ve assumed is just metaphorical gobbledygook.

Would be hilarious if all these holy wars are being fought over different recollections of the same event(s).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

November is darker, but also colder, snowier and wetter than March is here at Shawnigan.  Foothills in Oregon seem different, Andrew?  

November is the most dreary month of the year down here. I believe it is slightly less wet than December on average, but typically dominated by clouds and mild rain. November 2022 was an extreme aberration, with a decent amount of snow, sun, and cold nights. But over the time I’ve been here snow is pretty rare in November. It’s about as likely to happen as snow in April. 
 

March is not as consistently wet as November, but still a wet month. We average 11” of rain in November and 9”

in March. On average in my time here March has been our 2nd snowiest month and many of our biggest events have occurred in March. 

[TacomaWx]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You must be a white male.   

I’d say about 80% of us are

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s not a split.

This, however, is a PV split, correct me if I'm wrong?

By the way, I'm not saying this is likely to verify. Just pointing out the raw data.

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

@Phil do you plan to go to Punxsutawney on Friday, to meet the original weatherman named Phil? He's correct about as often as you, 39% of the time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59F at EUG

66F in Springfield

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I consider November to be more of a winter month than March is here. 

I have had infinity times more sticking snowfalls IMBY in November than in March.

March is squarely a spring month. Nothing winter about it.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November is the most dreary month of the year down here. I believe it is slightly less wet than December on average, but typically dominated by clouds and mild rain. November 2022 was an extreme aberration, with a decent amount of snow, sun, and cold nights. But over the time I’ve been here snow is pretty rare in November. It’s about as likely to happen as snow in April. 
 

March is not as consistently wet as November, but still a wet month. We average 11” of rain in November and 9”

in March. On average in my time here March has been our 2nd snowiest month and many of our biggest events have occurred in March. 

Last march was great. Couple of half inch snowfalls, on the 10th and ~25th I think and then a bunch of days with snow in the air throughout the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Last march was great. Couple of half inch snowfalls, on the 10th and ~25th I think and then a bunch of days with snow in the air throughout the month.

We had around 33”. Monthly mean around 36F

Edited January 31 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phil]

1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

This, however, is a PV split, correct me if I'm wrong?

By the way, I'm not saying this is likely to verify. Just pointing out the raw data.

 

Yes that is a split.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

@Phil do you plan to go to Punxsutawney on Friday, to meet the original weatherman named Phil? He's correct about as often as you, 39% of the time.

You sound salty.

[Andstorm]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Sun angles are higher here and that’s not my experience at all. Accumulation on pavement is harder but still doable. And at night there’s no difference at all.

I suspect your problem is marginal temps and/or saturated boundary layer.

I hear a TON about sun angles around here as reason major snow events rarely occur after mid-Feb. 

[Deweydog]

35 years ago RIGHT NOW heights were dropping RAPIDLY and frequent showers at the coast were beginning to change to SNOW.

MORE TO COME!

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

35 years ago RIGHT NOW heights were dropping RAPIDLY and frequent showers at the coast were beginning to change to SNOW.

MORE TO COME!

Heights in Alaska are below 570dam... 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Heights in Alaska are below 570dam... 

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

You sound salty.

He’s already oddly gone out of his way to pick beef with me too. Should be a fun new member of the team!

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

35 years ago RIGHT NOW heights were dropping RAPIDLY and frequent showers at the coast were beginning to change to SNOW.

MORE TO COME!

Impressive length to that arctic boundary.  Coast to coast. 

[T-Town]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, if I had to pick a time in which to be born id pick the 1940s-1950s. Post WW2…lots of technological and scientific advancement and pre social media. The 1950s-1990s sounds like a great time to be alive for someone who was born in 1999. 

Born in 1962 and can say that the 70s were a great time to grow up. A lot grittier but a lot simpler than 2024. I would have liked to have been born ten years earlier to experience 70s culture as a young adult, but then Id be 71 instead of 61 so I guess I’ll pass on that. 

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

SEA held at 61 past midnight despite the incoming rain and for the first time ever has 4 straight 60+ degree days in the month of January.

Officially 59 today so the 61 between hours at midnight didn't hold.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

You sound salty.

I'm not, I'm just curious because I realized you and the groundhog have the same name, and out of anyone on this forum, you live the closest to it. The last part was a joke that I guess you didn't pick up on, I don't think you're a bad forecaster, you're probably one of if not the best long range forecasters on the forum. Much better than the groundhog, although that's no disrespect to that rat, because 39% accuracy is still better accuracy than all of the wishcasters on here (which includes myself).

[Ray]

23 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Born in 1962 and can say that the 70s were a great time to grow up. A lot grittier but a lot simpler than 2024. I would have liked to have been born ten years earlier to experience 70s culture as a young adult, but then Id be 71 instead of 61 so I guess I’ll pass on that. 

I agree 100 percent!  I'm 61 as well and had the time of my life growing up back then.  I wouldn't trade those days for anything.

[BLI snowman]

52 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I hear a TON about sun angles around here as reason major snow events rarely occur after mid-Feb. 

I agree with Phil. Sun angles are certainly relevant but are not the entire story.

Losing our ability to lock in strong inversions starting ~February 20 is just taking a big component of how we obtain our subfreezing temps west of the Cascades. Locally we just saw a good example of it here this month, where 850mb temps barely dipped below freezing but we still saw single digit temps several days into the event. Clearly wouldn't be possible for us outside of inversion season.

But that is more a function of how reliant on inversions and low level CAA we are here and less a reflection on how much sun angles directly inhibit things with all other boundary layer conditions being equal.

In places east of the Rockies where inversions are way less relevant and upper level airmasses advect in a little more freely and evenly, sun angles work only really gradually to deplete significant snowfall potential as the season wanes. But here it takes a really significant and well directed amount of upper level advection to deliver the types of temperatures conducive to significant snow west of the Cascades. And you see the switch to onshore flow/heavy precip rates being more conducive to westside snow starting about March 1. 

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

37 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Born in 1962 and can say that the 70s were a great time to grow up. A lot grittier but a lot simpler than 2024. I would have liked to have been born ten years earlier to experience 70s culture as a young adult, but then Id be 71 instead of 61 so I guess I’ll pass on that. 

Agreed. I'm a 1965 baby and I really liked the Era I grew up in, although I think 1955-60 would've been the best Era to be born in, I'd say 65 is close enough. Any year prior to 1955 would've sucked because the Vietnam draft.

[Phil]

Beautiful.

 

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm not, I'm just curious because I realized you and the groundhog have the same name, and out of anyone on this forum, you live the closest to it. The last part was a joke that I guess you didn't pick up on, I don't think you're a bad forecaster, you're probably one of if not the best long range forecasters on the forum. Much better than the groundhog, although that's no disrespect to that rat, because 39% accuracy is still better accuracy than all of the wishcasters on here (which includes myself).

No you’re good, my reply was also meant to be in jest. I’ll add an emoji next time.

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I agree with Phil. Sun angles are certainly relevant but are not the entire story.

Losing our ability to lock in strong inversions starting ~February 20 is just taking a big component of how we obtain our subfreezing temps west of the Cascades. Locally we just saw a good example of it here this month, where 850mb temps barely dipped below freezing but we still saw single digit temps several days into the event. Clearly wouldn't be possible for us outside of inversion season.

But that is more a function of how reliant on inversions and low level CAA we are here and less a reflection on how much sun angles directly inhibit things with all other boundary layer conditions being equal.

In places east of the Rockies where inversions are way less relevant and upper level airmasses advect in a little more freely and evenly, sun angles work only really gradually to deplete significant snowfall potential as the season wanes. But here it takes a really significant and well directed amount of upper level advection to deliver the types of temperatures conducive to significant snow west of the Cascades. And you see the switch to onshore flow/heavy precip rates being more conducive to westside snow starting about March 1. 

 

Interesting information, thanks!

So I guess in that context, April 2022 was as anomalous as anything else winter-related in the 21st century?