February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

41 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

OH CLINTON, that silly NAM trying to fire us up. This is at 84hours and it's in your area and moving into KC. Blinding snow....

It's fooling us again, isn't it? Or maybe the north trend is starting...3-4 days out

I was thinking there was a good chance this would trend further north.  No strong high or artic air to suppress it.  Should be fun to track this weekend.

[Jayhawker85]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was thinking there was a good chance this would trend further north.  No strong high or artic air to suppress it.  Should be fun to track this weekend.

I’m having a hard time buying heavy snow for us in the Midwest. There is no Canadian high to bring in the cold, marginal surface temps, and we been in the 50’s and 60’s all week.

 

but we shall see lol

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m having a hard time buying heavy snow for us in the Midwest. There is no Canadian high to bring in the cold, marginal surface temps, and we been in the 50’s and 60’s all week.

 

but we shall see lol

Sounds a lot like our last big snow in January, that hit before the cold arrived.  But we shall see.

[gimmesnow]

Well I went to put in my new exhaust gaskets in my snowmobile and they sent me the wrong ones. So we are guaranteed 4 more weeks of winter while I stand around with no exhaust gaskets, lol.

[Grizzcoat]

PDS tornado in S.WI=

---

Tornado Warning
WIC025-055-105-090030-
/O.NEW.KMKX.TO.W.0004.240208T2350Z-240209T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Rock County in south central Wisconsin...
  Southeastern Dane County in south central Wisconsin...
  Southwestern Jefferson County in southeastern Wisconsin...

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 549 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

PDS tornado in S.WI=

---

Tornado Warning
WIC025-055-105-090030-
/O.NEW.KMKX.TO.W.0004.240208T2350Z-240209T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Rock County in south central Wisconsin...
  Southeastern Dane County in south central Wisconsin...
  Southwestern Jefferson County in southeastern Wisconsin...

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 549 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

Mentioned this setup yesterday.  We are doing this with dews in the 40s so imagine if there was a bit more moisture... could've really been quite an early season event.

I think this is probably going to be an active spring in terms of severe wx.  Should get a fairly rapid demise of El Nino as time wears on and I don't think this is going to be one of those years where we're dealing with frequent cold blasts well into April.  

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

Amazing Winter scenery at Snowbowl....unfortunately, I wasn't able to drive up this week but I'm hoping that there will be another good stretch of snowy weather this month and plan to go up and enjoy something like this...

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/webcams/

Beautiful snow amigo! Those western mountains are really amazing. But I did not see one soul working or skiing. Is the snow so bad nobody can really get up there right now?

[jaster220]

53F after work and still 51F here at this time. Our snow is on life-support lol. Feels like that first big warm-up you usually experience in March up here. Can we get a normal winter please and thanks, instead of all this rampant extremes. 

 

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Beautiful snow amigo! Those western mountains are really amazing. But I did not see one soul working or skiing. Is the snow so bad nobody can really get up there right now?

They close early around 4:00pm  I know that they issue delays on the lifts if the wind blows hard enough but today it wasn’t as bad as yesterday.

[ATW]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I was thinking there was a good chance this would trend further north.  No strong high or artic air to suppress it.  Should be fun to track this weekend.

Clinton, we’re both on the edge. Bring this baby a little further north. I’ll take a slopfest at this point. 

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

They close early around 4:00pm  I know that they issue delays on the lifts if the wind blows hard enough but today it wasn’t as bad as yesterday.

I forgot, they don't light the real mountains for night skiing like in the Midwest. 

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro... @Iceresistance  @Black Hole

I am aware, but what about the 0z NAM?

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm actually seeing flakes fall for the first time in about a month. 32°F.

[Stacsh]

Wow lightning and thunder.  Still 54 degrees.  Very rare thundershower moving through 

[westMJim]

New record highs were set yesterday at Muskegon 63° and Kalamazoo 62° It was the 2^nd warmest for the date at Holland 61° and Grand Rapids 59° It was the 2^nd warmest minimum at Lansing 37° Holland and Muskegon 38° and the 3^rd warmest at Grand Rapids with a reported 35° Here in MBY I had a high of 60 yesterday. There was a nice thunderstorm rolled thru around 11PM last night.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 59/35 there was 0.04” of rain in a nice thunderstorm. The sun was out 30% of the time. The highest wind was 39MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 55 was set in 1925 the record low of -16 was set in 1934 the most snowfall was 8.1” in 2010 the most on the ground was 23” in 2014. Last year was the wettest with 1.10” of rainfall and a H/L of 43/33.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for February 9th in southern lower Michigan.

1875: The temperature tumbles to 32 degrees below zero at Lansing and 20 below at Detroit during one of the coldest months on record in Lower Michigan. The mean temperature for the entire month at Lansing is 4.7 degrees, the coldest month ever recorded there.

1934: The coldest temperature ever recorded in Michigan occurred at Vanderbilt, with a low of 51 degrees below zero.

2018 a full day of snow, including a period of 1″ per hour rates, led to accumulations ranging from 4 to 9 inches across Southeast Michigan. The heaviest snow fell between the Ohio border and M59. Peak measurements of 9.0″ were taken near the towns of Adrian and Milan.

 2016, prolonged moderate to heavy snow resulted in significant accumulations in the Thumb. Locations south of Interstate 69 received only 1 to 6 inches, with the lowest amounts closest to Detroit and the Ohio border. However, Sebewaing, Port Hope, and Cass City all measured a foot. The big winner was Deford in Tuscola County where 14 inches fell.

 2010, a strong low-pressure system passed through the Ohio River Valley and dropped the largest snowfall totals of the 2009-10 season across southeast Michigan during the afternoon and evening hours of the 9th and the early morning hours of the 10th. Most locations received between 5 and 10 inches with the highest amounts observed along the Ohio border, and between Flint and Saginaw, where up to a foot was reported. Some of the higher snowfall reports included Saginaw with 12.4 inches, Burt with 10.5 inches, Samaria with 10.0 inches, and Ann Arbor and Flint received 9.4 inches.

 2001, a storm produced widespread two-day rainfall amounts from one to two and a half inches across all of Southeast Michigan. With substantial snowmelt thanks to one to two feet of snow on the ground, runoff production was quite large. Numerous rivers flooded over the following few days, and basement and road flooding were widespread. Unfortunately, there were three deaths as a result of the flooding in Monroe County.

Also on February 9, 1977, this day marked the last day of a streak of 45 days (December 26, 1976-February 9, 1977) of temperatures at or below 32 degrees in southeastern Michigan.

[chescowxman]

A couple more very warm days for February on tap today and tomorrow before we begin to cool a bit on Sunday and much chill back to average cold for next week. We could be close but will likely fall just shy of records for high temps both today and tomorrow. Record today is 61 back in 1990 and 62 tomorrow set back in 1960. A slight chance of showers tomorrow but a better shot of rain arriving on Monday with a possible turn to snow into Tuesday morning.

Records for today: High 61 (1990) / Low 14 below zero (1934) / Precipitation 1.86" (1906) / Snow 6.0" (1936)

[Tom]

FLG reported another Foot of Snow yesterday (12.4")...just shy of another daily record (12.9" 2009) by 1/2"...that puts a 3-day total of an impressive 36.1" of Powder!  If it wasn't for the Superbowl this Sunday, I would totally be driving up there today for the snow thats coming later tonight into tomorrow.  It must look like paradise up there!

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Decent storm on GFS next weekend for areas to my south and on east towards Chicago and MI/OH. Euro just ignores its existence.

[Tom]

Gosh, the medium/long range looks like a La Nina pattern if you are to believe the EURO with Spring to the South and Winter to the north...Battle Zone right through the Heartland...

[westMJim]

The highs yesterday were kind of rare for our area. For the whole month of February At Grand Rapids has only had 15 years with highs got warmer in February. At Lansing where records go back to 1863 there have been only 13 years when it has gotten warmer. At Holland there have been only 11 years and at Muskegon only in 3 years has it gotten warmer in February.

[westMJim]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

Gosh, the medium/long range looks like a La Nina pattern if you are to believe the EURO with Spring to the South and Winter to the north...Battle Zone right through the Heartland...

I have to say after yesterday and how nice it was I really would rather have it stay mild for March and warm up in April. I work for the local minor league baseball team and it is not fun at the games in April when it is cold.  

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I have to say after yesterday and how nice it was I really would rather have it stay mild for March and warm up in April. I work for the local minor league baseball team and it is not fun at the games in April when it is cold.  

I totally understand your feeling…but as you know well, living in the GL’s can be brutal during the Spring time.  I’m pretty sure there will be a lot of warmer days mixed in this Spring.  

[Black Hole]

Ensemble guidance overall looks weaker and warmer this morning for the coming system. Probably still going to get at least a little snow but for me I am thinking a dusting to 1" is the most likely at the moment. If precip comes in heavier than expected it could still be more but given the dependency on precip rates, lack of existing cold air, and warm ground temps it'll be tough. 

[Niko]

This mild, if not warm air feels amazing. Ya really dont wanna be inside at all. Temps in the 60's yesterday and more of the same today.  Back to near seasonable temps next week, but no big storms as for right now.

[Niko]

There was a slight chance for a snowstorm in S MI early next week, but the phase does not happen. Still needs to be watched.

[westMJim]

Fun fact.  Since January 23 every day has been above average. In 1931 every day starting on January 23 to February 9th was above average. February 10, 13 and 14 were below average. But the the rest of the days were above average March 1st was also above average. March was colder than average with a little more snow than average.

[Andie]

Had a Clear sunny and beautiful morning. 
High of 70*

Currently overcast with rain in the forecast beginning before dawn   
High tomorrow of 57* and Rain.  
Low Saturday 49* with the temps dropping.

Low Sunday 38*
Rain Saturday and Sunday.  

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I noticed another Tornado Warned cell near Little Rock, AR earlier this evening. There have been quite a few near there lately.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was another record warm day across the area.  Record highs were recorded at Grand Rapids 55°, Lansing 60, Muskegon 54°. At Grand Rapids the H/L was 55/39 there was no rain or snowfall. The highest wind was 43 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 32/19 the record high of 61 was set in 2009 the record low of -21 was set in 1899. Record rainfall of 0.99” was in 1966.  The most snow fall of 6.7” fell in 1981 the most on the ground was 23” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 37/25.

[westMJim]

While we are having one of the warmest starts to any February way back in 1899 it was a different story. Here in Grand Rapids one of the coldest stretches of cold happened. Starting on January 27, 1899 there were 21 days in a row of below average temperatures at Grand Rapids. On 15 of the days it got below zero reaching lows of -20 on January 31^st  and February 1^st -21 on February 10^th and 11^th -23 on the 12^th and -24 on the 13^th and 14^th Lows were similar in Lansing but at Muskegon lows reached -29 on February 12^th and -30 on the 12^th To put that into a little perspective the last 3 times it has gotten down to -20 or colder at GR was -22 in 1994, -20 in 1981 and -21 in 1979. With 7 days of -20 or colder 1899 has the most no other winter has more than 1. While 1899 had 15 days with lows of 0 or colder it is not the most at Grand Rapids as 1978 had 19 in recent years 2014 has the most with 11. As for snowfall that February was cold but not very snowy at all as only 3.4” fell at Grand Rapids and 3.6 at Lansing just 5” at  Muskegon.  There was a total of 75.9” that winter season at Grand Rapids, 47.0 at Muskegon and 49.4 at Lansing.

Here is some more information from the cold outbreak of 1899.  Nearly three feet of snow buried the nation’s capital, and ice encased steamboats on Lake Michigan. There’s cold—and then there was the Great Arctic Outbreak of February 1899. The bitter cold first hit the West Coast in the first days of February as temperatures reached lows of 33 degrees Fahrenheit in San Diego and 12 degrees in Seattle. The frigid air then barreled east with freezing temperatures reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. On February 11, residents of Fort Logan, Montana.  Between February 11 and February 14, the Great Arctic Outbreak set record low temperatures in Grand Rapids (-24 degrees), Wichita (-22 degrees), Oklahoma City (-17 degrees), Atlanta (-9 degrees), Fort Worth (-8 degrees) and Baton Rouge (2 degrees). Even in Florida, there was no vacation from the cold. The temperature in Tallahassee fell to an all-time state record of -2 degrees on February 13 as nearly two inches of snow fell from the Panhandle to Jacksonville. Tampa received the first measurable snowfall recorded in the city’s history and trace amounts fell further down the Gulf Coast. Even in tropical Miami, the mercury dipped below freezing as desperate farmers set fires among their orange groves and wrapped their trees for protection from the cold. Note after the cold in Tallahassee the temperature was back up into the 60’s on the 16^th and the 70’s by the 20^th  Here in Michigan March was cold and snowy but it did really warm up in April with it even reaching 90 degrees at Grand Rapids on April 29^th it reached the mid to upper 80’s in other  parts of West Michigan.

 

[Andie]

52 and a lot of rain over the entire state.  

Some stronger embedded storms but overall it looks like a Spring system.  

Rain all day and more tomorrow.  
We need it so, “Thanks!”

[Tom]

The last, in what has been a memorable series of Winter Storms out here in the 4 corners region, is making its way through my back yard...in fact, it is going to track literally right overhead!  Check out this cool little tight spin on radar...that little spin over the northern part of the radar loop is tracking over the I-17 that takes you up into Sedona/Flagstaff.  

Updated 3-day Snow Totals in Arizona: 36.1" Flagstaff, 55" Snowbowl, 36" Forest Lakes (Same place where I posted videos driving through Blitz conditions in JAN)....48" Sunrise Ski Resort....IF you thought that is a lot of snow, parts of So Cal by Big Bear got BURIED!  97" is an amazing 8.08 FEET!  WOWZA!!

 

[OKwx2k4]

On 2/6/2024 at 10:25 AM, chescowxman said:

Some really interesting statistics for Chester County that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970??

You're definitely not crazy and that's an unbelievably damning series of finds, including your previous post on the topic. 

I've looked at COOP data files and stuff in my area going back to the turn of the century which have since been altered or digitally whited out on the old PDF doc scans. It's really disappointing, but I'm not surprised. There's no limit to what these folks will do to enforce what they want believed.

Those adjustments would look a lot like the global temperature charts nowadays. 

[Minny_Weather]

God I want Euro to be right so bad. In a season like this I'd love a 5" daylight snowfall. The most I've gotten at once this year is 2" and it fell all during the night

[Timmy Supercell]

Another t'storm this morning in Ashland! Not nearly as much lightning as the one in late January but its something. 

54 degrees, drippy and spring birds chirping! 

[gimmesnow]

https://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/economic-disaster-what-some-ski-hills-are-dealing-with-this-warm-winter-season

Quote

Whitecap Resort says their situation is even more dire with losses more than $700 thousand dollars, they have laid off staff.

 

[chescowxman]

A cloudy but mild weekend with today being the warmest day for quite a while - in fact while today will soar well into the 50's we may very well not see a 50 degree or warmer day until we get to March. There is a slight chance of showers today but the main storm on the horizon arrives on Monday night. We should see rain possibly changing to wet snow from NW to SE toward Tuesday morning.

Records for today: High 62 (1960) / Low 13 below (1899) / Precipitation 2.28" (2010) / Snow 22.8" (2010) - this was day 2 of our 6th largest snowstorm in County history with the 26.8" of snow that fell.

[chescowxman]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You're definitely not crazy and that's an unbelievably damning series of finds, including your previous post on the topic. 

I've looked at COOP data files and stuff in my area going back to the turn of the century which have since been altered or digitally whited out on the old PDF doc scans. It's really disappointing, but I'm not surprised. There's no limit to what these folks will do to enforce what they want believed.

Those adjustments would look a lot like the global temperature charts nowadays. 

Below is a comparison of adjusted (blue) vs raw non adjusted (orange) annual average temperatures -  notice how much scarier the warming appears with adjustments? The reality is there has been very little warming over the last 50 years - at least here in Chester County PA

[Niko]

Its beautiful outside. I even heard bird chirping. Unreal! There is a storm to watch late next week, but that looks to be a rain to snow scenario w/ possible accumulations.  It stays cold thereafter, but near average temps or slightly below.

 

Note: As I said back in late Autumn, I'll be a happy camper if my snowfall this winter gets close to average, but w/ this strong nino, it will be tough. Good news is that this nino will be weakening in spring. Nina is up next, or will it be nada. If that is the case, forecasting next winter will be very tough. Rather have a nina for sure.