February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Tom said:

You might be one of the only members in our Sub that could still be in a somewhat "winter-like" pattern.  Lot of ups and downs in temps but at least you may be getting hit by clippers and LES.

And the over-night LES up in Grayling meant I have to retract my statement. After work there were indeed snowmobilers ripping down the trail that runs along I-75. Certainly not good conditions, but considering most of this winter, they got lucky.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty widespread cold and wet signal for mid/late March on the latest Euro weeklies and GEFS extended.

The groundhog may have seen an early spring but I don't think that's going to be the case.

[westMJim]

So far, the big stories for the winter of 2023/24 have been the mild almost snowless December. The 2 weeks of cold and snow in January saw not only the coldest temperatures of the winter, but a total of 30” of snowfall in just two weeks. And now February has had a very warm start. For the winter season we are running near the record warm meteorological winter of 1921/32. The mean for the meteorological winter of 1931/32 was 33.9 so far this winter has a mean of 33.5.    

Here is a month by month breakdown of the meteorological winters  of 1931/32 and 2023/24 so far. December 1931 had a mean of 35.8°, the high for the month was 55 and the low was 17. There was 7.1” of snowfall. December 2023 had a mean of 38.3 the high for the month was 58 and the low for the month was 22 there was just 1.3” of total snowfall. January 1932 The mean was 34.2 the high for the month was 58 and the low for the month was 5 there was just 3.2” of snowfall. January 2024 had a mean of 27.1 the high was only 40 the low for the month was -5 There were many days where it did not get below 30. The was a lot of snow in a two-week period when over 30” fell the month ended up with 31.3” of snowfall. February 1932 had a mean of 31.8 the high for the month was 64 and the low for the month was 13. There was 5.2” of snowfall. So far this year the 1^st 16 days February mean is 35.1 that is a departure of +10.0.   The highest so far is 59 and the lowest so far is just 21. There has been 5.5” of snowfall and 0.53” of total precipitation.  In 1932 for the whole month of February the mean at GR was 31.8 the high for the month was 64 and the low for the month was 13. There was 5.2” of snowfall the total precipitation was 1.16”. The next 13 days will decide if this winter will be the warmest meteorological winter.

[Clinton]

Down right chilly this morning as temps dropped well below expectations.  It's currently 11 with some light snow cover from yesterday morning and the forecasted low for mby was 20.  It was not a bad storm for some there are some nice snowfall totals to my east.

[Andie]

Typical Winter Weekend. Overcast

35 this morning.  Low tonight 32. 

Rinse and repeat Sunday. 
 

 

[Tom]

High Pressure is in full control this entire long weekend...highs will approach 80F by Mon & Tue of next week and upper 70's over the weekend with light winds.  Can't ask for anything better this time of year when avg temps are 71F.  Just blue skies and sunshine.  Grass is growing and the landscape has begun to turn green.  It's starting to feel like Spring is in the Air around these parts.  The sun is setting past 6pm (6:13pm) as the days are getting longer ever so slowly.  Our pool is packed with all the snow birds that have flocked into the valley.  I still have an itch to track one more Winter or Spring storm...we'll have to see how that shakes out, but in the meantime, I'm going to soak up the vibes in the "Valley of the Sun"!

[Tom]

11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty widespread cold and wet signal for mid/late March on the latest Euro weeklies and GEFS extended.

The groundhog may have seen an early spring but I don't think that's going to be the case.

March should provide some atmospheric fireworks...pretty good signal for an eventful Heartland...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

The Boyd County Weather Barrier prevailed last night, it snowed but didn't stick to the places where it typically gets measured. Roofs and trees looked white though!

The snow also had a much wetter feel to it, I stood out in it when taking the trash out and it was a lot like March or April snow I would see in Klamath Falls. 

[Niko]

More snow fell in the i-95 corridor last night as WWA was posted for NYC (2-4inches) and WSW's (4-6inches) for the Philly area. Wash DC and Baltimore saw some snows as well. Boston was too far north for this one.

 

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Down right chilly this morning as temps dropped well below expectations.  It's currently 11 with some light snow cover from yesterday morning and the forecasted low for mby was 20.  It was not a bad storm for some there are some nice snowfall totals to my east.

This one just missed S MI by a hair. My area just got a dusting. Down by the OH border, there was heavy snow reported yesterday afternoon, cloudy here in mby. Close call amigo.

Btw: w/ the Thursday system, my area received 1.9" and man it was coming down hard. !" per hr/rates or more. This was all snow all around. That rain/snow line never did make it up here. Even Detroit, points south stayed all snow.That was a bust from NOAA. Noone on the air even mentioned that later that evening LOL. Of course, they don't want to look bad.

[Niko]

I'll be in San Fransisco later today to go and visit my niece at University of Berkeley (Law School). Looking forward to that. I'll post pics. It will be my first time visiting there, so that should be fun.

[gimmesnow]

12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty widespread cold and wet signal for mid/late March on the latest Euro weeklies and GEFS extended.

The groundhog may have seen an early spring but I don't think that's going to be the case.

Sweet, might be worth it to go West snowboarding end of March.

[Hoosier]

Looking across the region, can see the impact of the snowcover in central IL/IN.  Temps are currently in the teens with 20s north of there.

[Timmy Supercell]

30 degrees with occasional flurry storms this afternoon!

It hits 32 when the sun is out, and drops a degree or two during a shower. 

[jaster220]

Dog walk..

[CentralNebWeather]

I’ve really lost interest in this winter. I usually check the models once or twice a day, maybe. Just nothing going on. This is usually such an active time with rain or snow storms. Not this year.  

[Hawkeye]

Recent runs of the GFS have been teasing a blow torch at the end of the month, with 70s into Iowa (and lows in the 60s).  As good as that would feel, that kind of early warmth, on top of the already-mild winter, would wake up plants way WAY too early.  My daffodils always pop up just a bit, regardless of how cold winter is, but this year they are up a few inches because of the consistent mild weather.  I would greatly prefer that we stay in the 40s and 50s.

[Hawkeye]

Yikes!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 27/18 there was a trace of snowfall and the day started with 2” on the ground. The highest wind speed was 49 MPH there was 22% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 34/20 the record high of 59 was set in 2017 the record low of -10 was set in 1936 the most rainfall of 0.80” fell in 1976 the most snowfall of 7.0” fell in 1926 the most snow on the ground was 24” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 38/20 and there was 2” of snow on the ground.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan

1926: A snowstorm drops 5 to 9 inches of snow across southern Lower Michigan. Lansing sets a record snow total for the day of 8.5 inches.

2014: Persistent cold weather and frequent snows during January and February result in a deep snow cover that persists through much of March. At Grand Rapids, the snow depth reaches 24 inches on this date, second only to the record of 25 inches set after the blizzard of late January 1978.

2019, an overachieving snowfall event occurred. A strong upper-level wave led to convective snow that resulted in a narrow swath of 5 to 7 inches of accumulation across the Ann Arbor to Utica corridor. Most other areas saw 1 to 4 inches of snow.

 1976, the daytime temperature rose to 62 degrees in Detroit, which is 27 degrees above average.

And across the USA

1992, A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured.

[gimmesnow]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yikes!

Something kind of funny, when GFS said cold after the 16th at the start of feb, the CFS weeklies said warm. Now the GFS says warm and the CFS weeklies say normal to below normal. They have contradicted each other the second half of February and that doesn't look to stop.

That said I'm fully expecting a blowtorch.

[gosaints]

On 2/3/2024 at 2:07 PM, Hawkeye said:

We made it to 56º a couple days ago, but yesterday and today thick, low stratus killed our temp.  We were stuck in the mid 30s yesterday and the temp has gone nowhere again today... both days well before the forecast.

 

On 2/16/2024 at 7:27 PM, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty widespread cold and wet signal for mid/late March on the latest Euro weeklies and GEFS extended.

The groundhog may have seen an early spring but I don't think that's going to be the case.

I think our severe chances look pretty decent more so than winter.

[chescowxman]

Chilliest morning since January 20th across most of Chester County this AM. With the solid snow cover across most of the County lows were in the teens in most areas (see attached). A little below normal temperatures for today through mid-week then some warming before our next chance of rain by Thursday night.

Records for today: High 72 Phoenixville (2011) / Low Phoenixville 11 below (1979) / Precipitation 1.59" KMQS Airport (2008) / Snow 10" Coatesville (1979)

[Hoosier]

18 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Recent runs of the GFS have been teasing a blow torch at the end of the month, with 70s into Iowa (and lows in the 60s).  As good as that would feel, that kind of early warmth, on top of the already-mild winter, would wake up plants way WAY too early.  My daffodils always pop up just a bit, regardless of how cold winter is, but this year they are up a few inches because of the consistent mild weather.  I would greatly prefer that we stay in the 40s and 50s.

Yeah, that's going to be a problem if it happens, considering what looks to be on the way in March.  Obviously it's an extreme example and I'm not equating it, but there were a lot of issues around the Lakes in April 2012 after the March torch.  April 2012 really wasn't even cold overall, but even typical April chill was a problem after the extremely mild March.

[WinterSquall23]

On 2/16/2024 at 1:52 PM, Tom said:

It’s like the PAC NW lately, right?  Sad season for winter fans.  I didn’t think it would have turned out to be such a dud month for a lot of the center part of the Nation.

The sad thing is this winter is more like a winter the we would get in the PNW every 5 years. Some years there is no snow unless you live at least 1000 ft up or in NW Washington where you have the influence of the Frasier River Valley.  Ironically we had the most snow ever living near Bellingham, WA.   I think it was around 20 to 22 inches one year.  Locals were saying that was big snow they get every decade or so. Living on the west side of the cascade mountains are average snowfall was 6-7 inches at sea level .  Those mountains block the cold air we get here and a 55 degree ocean does a lot to modify the cold air into near close events. (33-34 degree rain).  So we have to get near perfect conditions to get it to snow over there.  When it does snow it piles up fast especially if it is wet and the Low stalls out. 

[mlgamer]

Today's Weather Fun Fact!

My profile says I joined the forum 11/12/2014.

Topeka average annual snowfall for the 10 winters before joining: 21.6"

Topeka average annual snowfall for the 10 winters after joining: 12.8" (*includes this winter so far)

I lost roughly 40% (8.8") of annual average snowfall by joining the forum.

[Money]

Think winter is pretty much done for February 

[Andie]

I have to echo Money’s sentiment.  
We’ll see 67 today. Low mid 30’s.

Dry, allergies already kicking in.  I mean, what?

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 33/17 there was no rain/snowfall. There was 2” of snow on the ground. It was yet another windy day with the highest gust of 39 MPH the sun was out 18% of the time. For today the average high low is 34/20 the record high of 62 was set in 2017 the record low of -15 was set in 1978. The most rainfall was 0.85” in 1939 the most snowfall of 5.0” fell in 1901. The most snow on the ground was 22” in 1936 there was 21” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 47/34.

With clear skies and a calm wind it got down to 14 overnight here in MBY at the current time with clear skies it is 15.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan

1978: Record lows of 21 below zero at Lansing and 15 below at Grand Rapids contribute to this being the coldest February on record at Grand Rapids and the coldest of the 20th century at Lansing. The temperature never gets above freezing during the entire month at Lansing.

2016: Winds gusts to 70 mph in Grand Rapids and 66 mph in Jackson as a strong low-pressure center moved across the Great Lakes. Lower Michigan was on the warm side of the storm with record highs around 60 degrees.

 1900, a snowstorm dropped 12.6 inches of snow at Detroit. This was the 7th heaviest snowstorm in Detroit history. It also started a remarkable run of snowstorms that included the 3rd and 4th heaviest snowstorms during the next two weeks in 1900.

Across the USA 

1884, Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 people and causing three million dollars in damage. The tornado outbreak hit Georgia and the Carolinas the hardest

1888, Severe thunderstorms over southern Illinois spawned a violent tornado in Jefferson County and devastated the southeast half of Mount Vernon. The tornado killed 24 people, injured 80 others, and destroyed or damaged 300 homes and 50 businesses. In addition, overturned wood stoves ignited many fires in the wreckage. The tornado currently stands as the 9th deadliest Illinois tornado on record and was one of the first disasters to which the American Red Cross responded.

[Minny_Weather]

Endlessly warm and miserable on Euro. Not so much the case with GFS. 

[gimmesnow]

Two big dogs on the GFS hitting UP in mid/long range.

Guess the local forecasts are believing the Euro over GFS. 10 day has half an inch of rain and 50s next monday and tuesday. If that happens, pretty sure my snowboarding in Wisconsin is over. Looks like the ridge (I think that's the right term) is trying to stay away from me since GFS still is torching a lot of the midwest.

[chescowxman]

A fairly typical late February weather pattern with most days this week running a little below average but rising to above average by Thursday. Out next chance of rain looks to be Thursday night.

Chester County Records for today: High 74 Phoenixville (1948) / Low 4 below West Chester (1979) / Precipitation 1.86" Devault (1979) / Snow Devault 18.0" (1979)

[tStacsh]

Winter is basically over.   Next ten days is AN except for 1 or 2 days around normal.  EURO has record high temps next week.  GFS hasn't sniffed a longer term pattern all year.  Always over does the cold that never happens. (well the one week in January, but that was easy)     After that it's March, and while we could get snow/winter weather in March, it doesn't last long.   The fork hath been stuck.   The pattern just won't let any sustained cold enter the USA.  

Also, temps always exceed forecast when any sun comes out this time of year in Michigan, not sure why, but we are always warmer than models forecast.  High of 40 today, I've got 44.   

[Hawkeye]

It's 56º in Cedar Rapids, well above the expected high.

[Grizzcoat]

34.2" of snow in DSM for the season. 29" or so when it mattered. Winter was not much-- but I'll take a 2nd snowiest Jan  all time every year with normal temps.  Winter only lasted 2 weeks- but I'll take that epic period over some past El Nino Winters (15-16' etc).  Especially when DSM doubles MSP in snowfall. (thus far) . Can't be greedy growing up in MN.

Sun angle is now too strong even in MSP for a 6" snow to last much longer than 2-3 days/ unless followed by record cold. Neither is happening. March can produce heavy snows but mainly ND / N.MN in this pattern. Time to flip the seasons into early Spring  imo.

[gimmesnow]

The lake here is thawing quickly. I think ice off by next Tuesday, guaranteed if we get that rain. Water temp by shore is still in the lower 30s, though. Think I'll be done in SE Wisconsin boarding by end of February. That rain and warmth is going to kill everything. At best ski hills will limp around for a week or two not fulling being open. Too bad.

[westMJim]

Nice red sky sunset at this time.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Also, temps always exceed forecast when any sun comes out this time of year in Michigan, not sure why, but we are always warmer than models forecast.  High of 40 today, I've got 44.   

I think a lot has to with the lack of vegetation/leaves at this time of year, which makes it very easy to overperform.  High temps can overperform in summer too, but it doesn't seem to happen nearly as often or to the same degree as what happens in winter and into spring.

[gimmesnow]

I don't know, but it always seems like overperforming temps this time of year is the sign of the end.

Interesting this year acorns went bonkers this fall, dropping like crazy, way more than normal, and they were huge. And it ended up a dud winter. I'm not crazy about the farmer's tale things but I at least find it interesting. Farmer's Almanacs all completely blew it, calling for cold and snowy winter.