February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[OttumwaSnomow]

Shocking!

Seasonal snowfall:

Fargo : 8.5"

Minneapolis: 14.2"

Duluth: 17.7"

Ottumwa, IA 44.2"

 

[Clinton]

This February for western MO will go down as the warmest or 2nd warmest in history, currently we are +10.6 above average.  Look at these temps for the next 7 days!  What happens in days 8,9,10 won't look like this.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/12 there was no rain/snowfall and there was 89% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is now up to 35/20 the record high of 63 was set in 2018 that day also had the record rainfall of 2.53” the record low of -13 was set in 1966 and 2015. The record snowfall of 7.0” fell in 2011 the most on the ground was 21” in 1936. Last year the H/L was 41/26.  
There was a nice red sunset last night. It was once again a rather cold night with a low of 19 here in MBY. With clear skis I now have 20.

[MIKEKC]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This February for western MO will go down as the warmest or 2nd warmest in history, currently we are +10.6 above average.  Look at these temps for the next 7 days!  What happens in days 8,9,10 won't look like this.

Yep, she's been a warm one! You know what happened 45 days ago this Thursday, the biggest snow storm of the year for MO on Jan. 8th and 9th. 45 days later(the cycle length according to Lezak)on Feb. 22nd, warm and no snow! The cold and snow didn't cycle!!! Dang it!! Bastardi's forecast is looking less likely too

Now...we just might hit 73,74,75, Monday or Tuesday, BUT, is there a storm lurking with cold air crashing for Wednesday in the nation's midsection? The overnight data is closed to a big one

[Grizzcoat]

24 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Yep, she's been a warm one! You know what happened 45 days ago this Thursday, the biggest snow storm of the year for MO on Jan. 8th and 9th. 45 days later(the cycle length according to Lezak)on Feb. 22nd, warm and no snow! The cold and snow didn't cycle!!! Dang it!! Bastardi's forecast is looking less likely too

Now...we just might hit 73,74,75, Monday or Tuesday, BUT, is there a storm lurking with cold air crashing for Wednesday in the nation's midsection? The overnight data is closed to a big one

System late next week would cycle perfectly from the system that gave C.IA 1' on the 12th-13th of Jan.

[chescowxman]

Our nice stretch of late winter weather continues till Thursday evening when some rain arrives. Much warmer next week we might even hit 60 degrees in some spots!

Chester County Records for today: High 74 Phoenixville (1939)/ Low 6 below zero Phoenixville (1978) / Precipitation 2.12" West Chester (1898) / Snow 11" Glenmoore (1972) and Coatesville (1921)

[Hawkeye]

The models have become more progressive next week.  Unfortunately, that means the front moves through Iowa before the moisture can get up here.  ARGH!  

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The models have become more progressive next week.  Unfortunately, that means the front moves through Iowa before the moisture can get up here.  ARGH!  

Plenty of time to flip back (not that it will)

[Timmy Supercell]

Might be finishing off the month with a warm departure again. But I expected it might happen, I've seen other late winters during an El Nino feature severe wx events out here.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 50/21 there was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 85% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the S. It was a nice day to be outside and the maple trees have their sap running. For today the average H/L is 35/21 the record high of 66 was set in 1930 and the record low of -8 was set in 1968. The wettest was in 1997 with 2.96” of that 3.0” fell as snow. The most snowfall is 6.0” in 1898. The most on the ground was 20” in 1936. Last year the H/L was 39/26 and there was 0.1” of snowfall.

[westMJim]

Some weather history in southern Lower Michigan

1986: Lake Michigan water levels are near record highs. Coastal flooding and erosion are a concern during winter storms along the shore.

2018, a 3-day period of heavy rain came to a close. Total rainfall from the period ranged from 1 to 3 inches with a peak measurement of 3.36″ in Livingston County. Combined with melting snowpack, this caused the Clinton River near Mount Clemens to reach moderate flood stage while the Tittabawassee at Midland fell just short of reaching major flood.

2014, the same storm that brought a round of thundersnow the day before moved off to the northeast. As this occurred, widespread wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph spread into Southeast Michigan with gusts up to 56 mph at Detroit Metro Airport and in Saginaw.

1930, the temperature rose to a record high of 63 in Detroit. This day was one of a three-day record-high streak from the 20th with 61 degrees to the 22nd with 65 degrees. Saginaw also experienced this three-day streak with temperatures of 62 degrees on the 20th, 64 degrees on the 21st, and 67 degrees on the 22nd.

Across the USA 

1935, Frequent dust storms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality happened on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba Colorado due to poor visibility.

1971, A tornado outbreak struck portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeastern United States on February 21–22nd. The two-day tornado outbreak produced at least 19 tornadoes, probably several more, primarily brief events in rural areas, and killed 123 people across three states. The tornadoes “virtually leveled” entire communities in the state of Mississippi.

[Minny_Weather]

On 2/19/2024 at 11:38 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

Shocking!

Seasonal snowfall:

Fargo : 8.5"

Minneapolis: 14.2"

Duluth: 17.7"

Ottumwa, IA 44.2"

 

Fargo's record low yearly snow total is a pretty big outlier, at 9.3". The fact that they're still below that is ridiculous. And I'm not even gonna mention Duluth's total. 

[westMJim]

The 1^st 20 days of February are now in the history books and at Grand Rapids the mean is 33.7 that is a departure of +7.6 at this point this February is the 4^th  warmest of record for GR. The high for the month so far is 59 and the low so far is 12 there has been 0.53” of participation and just 5.5” of snowfall. Several of the next 9 days look to be well above average so we shall see how this February ends up. The current warmer years are 34.7 in 2017, 34.1 in 1998 and 34.0 in 1984.

[Tom]

The SW Ridge has been rock solid the last few days but today it'll weaken some allowing for the system hitting the west coast over the last couple days to track up and over the ridge.  Not expecting much here in the valley...maybe a brief shower.  Nevertheless, Spring has pretty Sprung out here in the Valley of the Sun.  The vegetation is growing and animal life has pretty much awoken from the depths of Winter.  It's wonderful to hear the sounds of nature early in the morning that gather around the fountain with the various ducks, birds, etc.  Every once in a while, I hear Owl's "hooting" and communicating to their friends across the city!  I picked some wonderful grapefruit the other day as the fruit trees are pretty much ripe with lemons, oranges, etc.  

More 80's in the forecast this weekend...Spring Training will be in Full Gear!  The Valley is going to be very busy this next month!  

[Andie]

13 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Might be finishing off the month with a warm departure again. But I expected it might happen, I've seen other late winters during an El Nino feature severe wx events out here.

The house got so warm yesterday evening I had to turn the a/c on for a half hour to cool it down.   
Way too early.  

[gimmesnow]

Woke up to lower 20s in Wausau, snow boarding granite peak. 15 degrees warmer just an hour and a half south in portage. It's amazing how a little drive can be the difference sometimes.

Snow was pretty good last night, should be good today.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday really scaring me about Alpine valley and Cascade. Hopefully rain stays away.

Already seeing hostas sprouting in the yard lol.

 

[chescowxman]

AM low 20.5 - Today will be our 5th straight below normal temp day. We should see a warmup to slightly above normal tomorrow with rain arriving tomorrow night. Colder again for the weekend before a big warm up next week.)
Chester County Wide Records for today: High 79.7 Warwick Twp. (2018) / Low 6 below Phoenixville (1934) / Precipitation 2.73" Kennett Square (1912) / Snow 12.3" Coatesville (1947)

[Timmy Supercell]

55 minutes ago, Andie said:

The house got so warm yesterday evening I had to turn the a/c on for a half hour to cool it down.   
Way too early.  

We still run the heat early in the morning but so far we haven't touched the a/c yet this year.

Behind some of my patched up areas where wasps were entering, I heard one trying to get in last night 

[Madtown]

Finishing up winter strong Rarely get a week like this in April/May let alone Feb.

[Madtown]

Does anyone have a site with a calendar of high and low temps. Trying to put together our ice making log matched up with temps for the season. Thanks a ton.

[Beltrami Island]

47 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Does anyone have a site with a calendar of high and low temps. Trying to put together our ice making log matched up with temps for the season. Thanks a ton.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=dlh

[Hoosier]

It looks like Chicago has a chance to reach 70 next Tuesday.  The record high for that day is 75, which would take a big lift to reach, but 70+ would still be notable.  There have only been 5 occurrences of 70+ in February, with 4 out of those 5 happening since 1999.  Here's a list:

75 - Feb 27, 1976

72 - Feb 25, 2000

70 - Feb 11, 1999

70 - Feb 18, 2017

70 - Feb 20, 2017

[Niko]

While I was there, I rented a car and my niece and I explored the city. She knows so my about the culture there. Great Lawyer in the family on the way!!!!! I also experienced a quick , rare thunderstorm for this time of the year, followed by a rainbow. Overall, great city to visit.

Pic1 & Pic2 are the same: Delicious lunch

Pic3; Alcatraz Island.

Pic4: Rainbow after a thunderstorm

Pic5: Scenery of the Bay area

Pic6: Crusin the city

Pic7: Inside the hotel

Pic8: A crisp, beautiful sunny day, although, at night it gets chilly for SF standards

Pic9: View of my hotel Suite(Claremont Club & Spa)

Pic10: Up on the steep hill. Some hills are so steep, it looks very scary driving down the road...

San Fransisco Pics:

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

[Niko]

On 2/17/2024 at 3:28 PM, jaster220 said:

Dog walk..

Beautiful pic amigo. Enjoy the winter wonderland at your new place.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It looks like Chicago has a chance to reach 70 next Tuesday.  The record high for that day is 75, which would take a big lift to reach, but 70+ would still be notable.  There have only been 5 occurrences of 70+ in February, with 4 out of those 5 happening since 1999.  Here's a list:

75 - Feb 27, 1976

72 - Feb 25, 2000

70 - Feb 11, 1999

70 - Feb 18, 2017

70 - Feb 20, 2017

Wouldn't be that far of a stretch. The sun is out and I have hit 60 degrees today.  Forecast was 54.   Temps always outperform models in the late winter/spring in this type of sw flow pattern.  

[Hawkeye]

How warm we get next Tuesday will depend on how quickly the trough moves east.  The last two Euro runs have slowed it, so the model now has us getting into the mid 70s.  The latest run also brought storms into southeast Iowa, but not quite far enough nw to hit me.

[OKwx2k4]

Really any last semblance of winter is gone now here. I see the signs of real spring showing everywhere. It's wonderful. Had a bit of everything this month here. 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS going crazy with snow totals in relation to the low pressure complex next week. Almost two feet of snow for Sioux Falls.

Our good ol Drunk Uncle coming through again. 

 

[gimmesnow]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS going crazy with snow totals in relation to the low pressure complex next week. Almost two feet of snow for Sioux Falls.

Our good ol Drunk Uncle coming through again. 

 

Even a weenie band right over me. Lock. It. In!!!

[Naptownwx]

Big multi-day severe weather event is looking increasingly likely next week

[Clinton]

Looks like somethings brewing for the northern members to close out the month.

0z Euro

6z GEFS

[Clinton]

Day 6 slight risk in February.  I'm not sure whether to be excited or sad.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 62/38 that 62 was the 2^nd warmest high for the dated. There was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 45% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 36/21 the record high of 67 was set in 1930 and the record low of -7 was in 1936. The most rain fall of 1.06” fell in 1980 the most snow fall of 4.9” was in 2010. The most snow on the ground was 18” in 1936. Last year the H/L was 31/26 and there was 1.6” of snowfall.

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Day 6 slight risk in February.  I'm not sure whether to be excited or sad.

Time to Flip the Script to Spring my friend...the way this Winter has crapped out, I'd be more excited to see 70's and that "Spring Smell" in the air...I just read that the trees are budding wayyy to early this year back in Chi.  Not sure if that is good or bad bc we know a Freeze is in the cards soon enough.

[Tom]

This is why if it snows next week across the MW/GL's, it wouldn't really appeal to me bc in 3 days it'll all be gone as a massive ridge surges blossoms over the heartland....I'll be rooting for MSP to score a Snowstorm so that they can beat ORD in the seasonal totals...not sure where they stand, I'd think this storm could cut it close...

Winter...

 

Back to Spring...

[Tom]

The CFSv2 is trending far far away from any meaningful MAR cold or snow for the eastern CONUS.  I feel bad for Bastardi who is really hoping a cold MAR saves his forecast.  Looks very likely that my area in the 4 corners will STEAL the Snow.  Come out west for the Best Snow!

]

 

[gimmesnow]

Hope to see a warm March. I am scared we are going to pay dearly for the warm February. I'd be ok with this bad winter if it means a quick spring.

I look locked in to crush my record between snowboard and jet ski. Previous was snowboard Alpine Monday, jet ski Friday.

Amazing how we had so many signals for Arctic air in models after the 15 of Feb and it never came for any meaningful amount of time

[Black Hole]

High of 83F at TUL yesterday set a record, 85F at my place. It was uncomfortable outside since I'm not used to that just yet. Looks mild and dry through the weekend.

 

Early next week is going to be interesting for a lot of us as that beast of a cold front moves through. Ahead of the front I expect a couple of days in the 80s here, quite possibly approaching 90F if everything goes just right. Then moisture surges in with a risk of severe storms. What I am seeing says the best risk will be east of here as is common in Feb. Mega temp drop from upper 80s to near freezing in 36 hours. Probably a good snow event north of here as some of you mentioned. Right back to warm a day or two later. Spring is definitely here to stay in OK. 

[tStacsh]

Looks like March is coming in like late April.